The Generational and Institutional Sources of the Global Decline in Voter Turnout (original) (raw)
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Learning (Not) to Vote: the Generational Basis of Turnout Decline in Established Democracies
Using survey data from all six countries where elections have been studied continuously since the 1960s, we examine the role of generational replacement in turnout change. Early electoral experiences leave an imprint on citizens who generally continue to vote or not vote just as they generally continue to support the same political party (or no party). Based on this insight we propose a partial explanation for declining turnout in countries which, in the 1960s and 70s, lowered the age at which citizens could vote. The lower voting age allowed unmotivated individuals to become socialized into non-voting behavior with unfortunate consequences for turnout in many countries. Continuing turnout decline since the early 1970s reflects at least in part the normal mechanism of generational replacement as voters leave the electorate whose early electoral experiences were more positive. The findings have far-reaching implications for our understanding of the mainsprings of electoral change.
Generational basis of turnout decline in established democracies
2004
Abstract: Voting is a habit. People learn the habit of voting, or not, based on experience in their first few elections. Recent research has shown that elections that do not stimulate high turnout among young adults leave a 'footprint'of low turnout in the age structure of the electorate as many individuals who were new at those elections fail to vote at subsequent elections. Elections that stimulate high turnout leave a high turnout footprint.
The Source of Turnout Decline: New Values or New Contexts?
Voter turnout has consistently declined since the 1980s across a wide range of advanced democracies. Much of this decline appears to due to young people abstaining. In this paper we test two arguments for this trend. The first rests on the claim that the character of elections has changed; specifically that elections have become less competitive and that young people's propensities for voting are particularly negatively affected by this. The second maintains that recent generations have different and that these value differences explain turnout declines. We test these two explanations using three different data sets: 1) individual level and election specific data from 83 elections in eight countries since the 1950s; 2) longitudinal individual level and district level data from British elections for the period 1974-2005; 3) panel data from American presidential elections. Our findings provide strong evidence for the generational value change argument while we find scant support for the competition argument.
Electoral Studies, 2008
Democratic theory suggests that a nation's electoral system should influence the level of voter turnout. However, the empirical evidence for this relationship is mixed. These weak findings are partially due to insufficient attention to measurement and sampling issues. Concerning measurement, many studies examine the percent of registered citizens that turn out to vote, a measure that unnecessarily distorts the effect of electoral system. Concerning samples, electoral systems will have a larger impact on turnout in more fully democratic countries, given that the vote itself is more meaningful in a full democracy. Taking into account these distinctions, electoral systems in fact have a strongly significant effect on turnout in fully democratic countries, while having relatively little effect in partially democratic countries.
Scandinavian Political Studies, 2009
Recent research has found that voter turnout is declining in most advanced industrial countries. The trend is driven by generational replacement because the age cohorts that entered the electorate at the end of the 20th century are voting at lower than expected rates. In North American countries the decline is also concentrated among the poorly educated. This paper examines the relative contribution of period, life-cycle, generational, and educational effects on changes in electoral participation over the last four decades in Sweden, Norway and Germany with individual-level data. Turnout decline is partly driven by generational change in the countries observed as the literature suggests. Additionally, there is also a clear socio-economic correlate. Most strikingly, poorly-educated persons of all age groups are increasingly failing to vote in Germany. The results suggest that the causes of the long-term evolution are multidimensional and its relative consequences vary across countries. The debate about turnout decline and its possible remedies has to take into account the fact that both members of new generations and citizens with low education attainment are the main targets of measures aimed at increasing turnout rates, but that different actions might be required to attract each specific demographic group to the polls.
The Generational Basis of Turnout Decline in
ABSTRACT Voting is a habit. People learn the habit of voting, or not, based on experience in their first few elections. Recent research has shown that elections that do not stimulate high turnout among young adults leave a'footprint'of low turnout in the age structure of the electorate as many individuals who were new at those elections fail to vote at subsequent elections. Elections that stimulate high turnout leave a high turnout footprint.
The dynamics of electoral participation
Comparing democracies, 2002
Participation is the lifeblood of democracy, involving different numbers of people in different activities at different times. Maintaining viable party organizations requires the commitment of a few people over a considerable period. Campaigning, lobbying, or protesting require a greater commitment by more people, but over a shorter period. Voting requires a minimum commitment for a brief period, but involves by far the greatest number of people. In a book primarily about elections it seems natural to focus on voting. Indeed, the health of a democracy is often seen in terms of its level of turnout.
Turnout in Electoral Democracies
European Journal of Political Research, 1998
We examine turnout in 324 democratic national lower house elections held in 91 countries, between 1972 and 1995. We rely on Freedom House ratings of political rights to determine whether an election is democratic or not. We distinguish three blocs of factors that affect turnout: the socio-economic environment, institutions, and party systems. We show that turnout is influenced by a great number of factors and that the patterns that have been shown to prevail in studies dealing with more limited samples of countries generally hold when we look at a larger set of democracies. But we also show that the socio-economic environment, which has been downplayed in previous studies, has a substantial impact on turnout.