Asymptotics for the ruin probabilities of a two-dimensional renewal risk model with heavy-tailed claims (original) (raw)

Precise estimates for the ruin probability in finite horizon in a discrete-time model with heavy-tailed insurance and financial risks

Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 2003

This paper investigates the probability of ruin within finite horizon for a discrete time risk model, in which the reserve of an insurance business is currently invested in a risky asset. Under assumption that the risks are heavy tailed, some precise estimates for the finite time ruin probability are derived, which confirm a folklore that the ruin probability is mainly determined by whichever of insurance risk and financial risk is heavier than the other. In addition, some discussions on the heavy tails of the sum and product of independent random variables are involved, most of which have their own merits.

Finite-time ruin probabilities under large-claim reinsurance treaties for heavy-tailed claim sizes

Journal of Applied Probability, 2020

We investigate the probability that an insurance portfolio gets ruined within a finite time period under the assumption that the r largest claims are (partly) reinsured. We show that for regularly varying claim sizes the probability of ruin after reinsurance is also regularly varying in terms of the initial capital, and derive an explicit asymptotic expression for the latter. We establish this result by leveraging recent developments on sample-path large deviations for heavy tails. Our results allow, on the asymptotic level, for an explicit comparison between two well-known large-claim reinsurance contracts, namely LCR and ECOMOR. Finally, we assess the accuracy of the resulting approximations using state-of-the-art rare event simulation techniques.

Recursive Calculation of Ruin Probabilities at or Before Claim Instants for Non-Identically Distributed Claims

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2014

In this paper, we present recursive formulae for the ruin probability at or before a certain claim arrival instant for some particular continuous time risk model. The claim number process underlying this risk model is a renewal process with either Erlang or a mixture of exponentials inter-claim times (ICTs). The claim sizes (CSs) are independent and distributed in Erlang's family, i.e., they can have different parameters, which yields a non-homogeneous risk process. We present the corresponding recursive algorithm used to evaluate the above mentioned ruin probability and we illustrate it on several numerical examples in which we vary the model's parameters to assess the impact of the non-homogeneity on the resulting ruin probability.

Exit problem of a two-dimensional risk process from the quadrant: Exact and asymptotic results

Consider two insurance companies (or two branches of the same company) that divide between them both claims and premia in some specified proportions. We model the occurrence of claims according to a renewal process. One ruin problem considered is that of the corresponding two-dimensional risk process first leaving the positive quadrant; another is that of entering the negative quadrant. When the claims arrive according to a Poisson process, we obtain a closed form expression for the ultimate ruin probability. In the general case, we analyze the asymptotics of the ruin probability when the initial reserves of both companies tend to infinity under a Cram\'{e}r light-tail assumption on the claim size distribution.

Asymptotic tail probabilities of risk processes in insurance and finance

2018

In this thesis we are interested in the impact of economic and financial factors, such as interest rate, tax payment, reinsurance, and investment return, on insurance business. The underlying risk models of insurance business that we consider range from the classical compound Poisson risk model to the newly emerging and more general Lévy risk model. In these risk models, we assume that the claim-size distribution belongs to some distribution classes according to its asymptotic tail behavior. We consider both light-tailed and heavy-tailed cases. Our study is through asymptotic tail probabilities. Firstly, we study the asymptotic tail probability of discounted aggregate claims in the renewal risk model by introducing a constant force of interest. In this situation we focus on claims with TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES .

Ruin probabilities based at claim instants for some non-Poisson claim processes

Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2000

The paper presents a recursive method of calculating ruin probabilities for non-Poisson claim processes, by looking at the surplus process embedded at claim instants. The developed method is exact. The processes considered have both claim sizes and the inter-claim revenue following selected phase type distributions. The numerical section contains figures derived from the exact approach, as well as a tabular example using the numerical approach of De Vylder and Goovaerts. The application of the method derived in the paper through numerical examples reveals the sensitivity of the value of probability of ruin to changes in claim number process.

The probabilities of absolute ruin in the renewal risk model with constant force of interest

Journal of Applied Probability, 2010

In this paper we consider the probabilities of …nite-and in…nite-time absolute ruin in the renewal risk model with constant premium rate and constant force of interest. In the particular case of compound Poisson model, explicit asymptotic expressions for the …niteand in…nite-time absolute ruin probabilities are given. For the general renewal risk model, we present an asymptotic expression for the in…nite-time absolute ruin probability. Conditional distributions of Poisson processes and probabilistic techniques regarding randomly weighted sums are employed in the course of this study.

The finite-time ruin probability with dependent insurance and financial risks

Journal of Applied Probability, 2011

Consider a discrete-time insurance risk model. Within period i, the net insurance loss is denoted by a real-valued random variable X i . The insurer makes both risk-free and risky investments, leading to an overall stochastic discount factor Y i from time i to time i − 1. Assume that (X i , Y i ), i ∈ N, form a sequence of independent and identically distributed random pairs following a common bivariate Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern distribution with marginal distribution functions F and G. When F is subexponential and G fulfills some constraints in order for the product convolution of F and G to be subexponential too, we derive a general asymptotic formula for the finite-time ruin probability. Then, for special cases in which F belongs to the Fréchet or Weibull maximum domain of attraction, we improve this general formula to be transparent.

Dependence and the asymptotic behavior of large claims reinsurance

Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2008

We consider an extension of the classical compound Poisson risk model, where the waiting time between two consecutive claims and the forthcoming claim are no longer independent. Asymptotic tail probabilities of the reinsurance amount under ECOMOR and LCR treaties are obtained. Simulation results are provided in order to illustrate this.