Is It Putin or Is It Oil? Explaining Russia's Fiscal Recovery (original) (raw)

Oil and Gas Budget Revenues in Russia after Crisis in 2015

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2019

The paper propose the energy market crisis impact on the Russian budget revenues in 2015. We develop the model to forecast the impact of oil prices on budget revenues in Russia. The practical significance of this work lies in the structuring of existing knowledge on oil crisis impact on the Russian budget. Brent crude oil prices were in the range of 115-79 dollars per barrel in 2014. The cyclical strengthening of US dollar and political factors have led to an increase in supply in the oil market by >20%. In 2015, we saw a decline in oil prices below $ 40 per barrel. The strengthening of the United States dollar was a major factor in the decline, as it was in the middle of 2001, when the price fell by about a one third before starting a longterm sharp increase.

Tax, transition, and the State: the Case of Russia

2001

The article sets out to assess the problems of taxation in Russia in the context of the Russian state, its relationship with the enterprise sector and the transition from plan to market. In this paper, we argue that Russia's well-known tax collection problem is a manifestation of an ineffective and poorly governed state, supported by weak institutions whose authority is not legitimate in the eyes of its citizens. Central to this crisis is the symbiosis of politics and economics that was common in Soviet times and is still prevalent in Russia today. During transition, Russia has witnessed an ineffective state (with a weak civil society) and a systemic crisis of governance. This crisis of a weak state and poor governance, manifesting itself in a severe fiscal crisis, culminated in the August 1998 crash.

Russia from Bust to Boom: Oil, Politics or the Ruble?

2007

This paper develops and estimates a small macroeconomic model of the Russian economy. The model is tailored to analyze the impact of the oil price, the exchange rate, private sector confidence and fiscal policy on economic performance. The model does very well in explaining Russia’s recent economic history in the period 1995-2004. Simulations suggest that the Russian economy is vulnerable

Energy wealth and tax reform in Russia and Kazakhstan

Resources Policy, 2001

Resource-rich states throughout the developing world are prone to rent-seeking, excessive borrowing, wasteful spending, and unbalanced growth as well as states with weak institutions and authoritarian regimes. Are the five energy-rich Soviet successor states necessarily doomed to repeat this experience, often referred to as the "resource curse"? This paper advances and tests the hypothesis that Russia and Kazakhstan are more likely to avoid the "resource curse" than Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan because they privatized their energy sectors. Specifically, we find that privatization offers a potential path out of the "resource curse" when it involves a transfer of ownership to domestic actors. Although Kazakhstan initially appeared to be developing a viable tax regime in response to foreign investors, over the long term Kazakhstan's tax regime has become increasingly volatile and dependent upon these foreign investors. In contrast, domestic oil companies are helping to foster the development of an increasingly viable tax regime in Russia. 

Russia’s Fiscal Gap

2013

This paper is dedicated to the memory of Yegor Gaidar, who founded the Gaidar Institute and for whom fiscal sustainability and responsibility was of paramount importance. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. At least one co-author has disclosed a financial relationship of potential relevance for this research. Further information is available online at http://www.nber.org/papers/w19608.ack NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.