Climate change and the socioeconomics of global food production: A quantitative analysis of how socioeconomic factors influence the vulnerability of grain … (original) (raw)
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Many studies warn that climate change may undermine global food security. Much work on this topic focuses on modelling crop-weather interactions but these models do not generally account for the ways in which socio-economic factors influence how harvests are affected by weather. To address this gap, this paper uses a quantitative harvest vulnerability index based on annual soil moisture and grain production data as the dependent variable in a Linear Mixed Effects model with national scale socio-economic data as independent variables for the period 1990–2005. Results show that rice, wheat and maize production in middle income countries were especially vulnerable to droughts. By contrast, harvests in countries with higher investments in agriculture (e.g. higher amounts of fertilizer use) were less vulnerable to drought. In terms of differences between the world’s major grain crops, factors that made rice and wheat crops vulnerable to drought were quite consistent, while those of maize crops varied considerably depending on the type of region. This is likely due to the fact that maize is produced under very different conditions worldwide. One recommendation for reducing drought vulnerability risks is coordinated development and adaptation policies, including institutional support that enables farmers to take proactive action.
Do Farmers Adapt to Climate Change? A Macro Perspective
Agriculture
Greenhouse gas emissions cause climate change, and agriculture is the most vulnerable sector. Farmers do have some capability to adapt to changing weather and climate, but this capability is contingent on many factors, including geographical and socioeconomic conditions. Assessing the actual adaptation potential in the agricultural sector is therefore an empirical issue, to which this paper contributes by presenting a study examining the impacts of climate change on cereal yields in 55 developing and developed countries, using data from 1991 to 2015. The results indicate that cereal yields are affected in all regions by changes in temperature and precipitation, with significant differences in certain macro-regions in the world. In Southern Asia and Central Africa, farmers fail to adapt to climate change. The findings suggest that the world should focus more on enhancing adaptive capacity to moderate potential damage and on coping with the consequences of climate change.
Global Food Security, 2016
Achieving and maintaining global food security is challenged by changes in population, income, and climate, among other drivers. Assessing these threats and weighing possible solutions requires a robust multidisciplinary approach. One such approach integrates biophysical modeling with economic modeling to explore the combined effects of climate stresses and future socioeconomic trends, thus providing a more accurate picture of how agriculture and the food system may be affected in the coming decades. We review and analyze the literature on this structural approach and present a case study that follows this methodology, explicitly modeling drought and heat tolerant crop varieties. We show that yield gains from adoption of these varieties differ by technology and region, but are generally comparable in scale to (and thus able to offset) adverse effects of climate change. However, yield increases over the projection period are dominated by the effects of growth in population, income, and general productivity, highlighting the importance of joint assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers to better understand climate impacts and responses.
Country-level climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of climate change on food security
SN Applied Sciences
Projected climate change has stimulated increasing interest in the interactive effects between carbon dioxide (CO 2) and temperature on crop yields. Crop yields are anticipated to decline if Earth continues to warm but increase as CO 2 concentration rises. These two factors tend to work in opposite directions, and the interactive effect is not yet clear. There are also significant concerns that climate change is going to undermine global food security. Our purpose is to examine the quantitative relationship between CO 2 and temperature on crop yields and to explore food security or insecurity in the presence of climate change. To do so, we perform a historical analysis on the crop yield trends in 57 selected countries from 1961 to 2013 on a yearly basis employing a fixed-effects panel regression model. The model is based on CO 2 levels measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and weighted-average temperatures in each country in corresponding years. We also incorporate other socioeconomic factors, including purchasing power parity adjusted gross domestic product (PPP GDP) and education levels measured by Human Capital Index (HCI), that might affect crop yields. In addition, we control for other factors such as technological changes that contribute to increased yields. We find mixed evidence regarding CO 2-fertilization and rising temperatures where some crops benefits and others are damaged. We identify four tipping points for CO 2 beyond which CO 2 is no longer beneficial for wheat, maize, rapeseed, and rice, where maize is expected to sustain benefits from CO 2-fertilization up until 800 ppm. We also find that rice is damaged by rising temperatures beyond 44 °C.
Climate Change, Agriculture, and Developing Countries: Does Adaptation Matter?
The World Bank Research Observer, 1999
Because most developing countries depend heavily on agriculture, the effects of global warming on productive croplands are likely to threaten both the welfare of the population and the economic development of the countries. Tropical regions in the developing world are particularly vulnerable to potential damage from environmental changes because the poor soils that cover large areas of these regions already have made much of the land unusable for agriculture. Although agronomic simulation models predict that higher temperatures will reduce grain yields as the cool wheat-growing areas get warmer, they have not examined the possibility that farmers will adapt by making production decisions that are in their own best interests. A recent set of models examines cross-sectional evidence from India and Brazil and finds that even though the agricultural sector is sensitive to climate, individual farmers do take local climates into account, and their ability to do so will help mitigate the impacts of global warming.