Projected changes in the organic carbon stocks of cropland mineral soils of European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990?2070 (original) (raw)
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Soil as part of climate solution – agricultural policy reform to promote climate-smart agriculture
Natural Resources Institute Finland, 2021
As part of Finland's goal of being carbon neutral in 2035, also agriculture must reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. About half of agricultural GHG emissions is caused by the cultivation of peat soils. Hence, the largest and quickest emission reductions are possible by changes in the agricultural practices on peat soils. Furthermore, croplands on mineral soils can be converted from emission sources to carbon sinks by diversifying cultivation methods and, thus, improving soil health. The Finnish agricultural policy should guide agriculture to take on climate measures on both peat and mineral soils. A sufficiently extensive selection of measures is required so that different farms can choose alternatives suitable for them. The adoption of new methods requires changes in the farmers' thinking, and in their approach to farm management. In order to ensure a fair transition to climate-smart land use, we must know the income effects of the climate measures in different areas and for different production sectors.
Management of Soil Resources for Sustainable Development under a Changing Climate
Journal of Environmental Science and Natural Resources, 2019
Development was conventionally driven by one particular need, without fully considering the wider or future impacts. This kind of approach has now been considered to be responsible for the economic and environmental catastrophes that humans are facing: from large scale financial crises caused by irresponsible banking to the changes in global climate resulting from our dependence on fossil fuel based energy sources. Soils provide essential ecosystem services such as primary production, regulation of biogeochemical cycles (with consequences for the climate), water filtration, resistance to diseases and pests, and regulation of above-ground biodiversity. Changing of the climate systems is unequivocal. Adaptation to global climate change through improved soil quality by adoption of improved management practices is key to maintaining sustainable agricultural production. A holistic approach to soil management as the engine for increasing productivity by increasing resource use efficiency ...
Unexpected increases in soil carbon eventually fell in low rainfall farming systems
Journal of Environmental Management, 2020
Understanding the drivers of soil organic carbon (SOC) change over time and confidence to predict changes in SOC are essential to the development and long-term viability of SOC trading schemes. This study investigated temporal changes in total SOC, total nitrogen (N), and carbon (C) fractions (particulate organic carbon-POC, resistant organic carbon-ROC and humus organic carbon-HOC) over a 16-year period for four contrasting farming systems in a low rainfall environment (424 mm) at Condobolin, Australia. The farming systems were 1) conventional tillage mixed farming (CT); 2) reduced tillage mixed farming (RT); 3) continuous cropping (CC); and 4) perennial pasture (PP). The SOC dynamics were also modelled using APSIM C and N modules, to determine the accuracy of this model. Results are presented in the context of land managers participating in Australian climate change mitigation schemes. There was an increase in SOC for all farming systems over the first 12 years (total organic C, TOC% at 0-10 cm increased from 1.33% to 1.77%), which was predominately in the POC% fraction (POC% at 0-10 cm increased from 0.14% to 0.5%). Between 2012 and 2015, there was a decrease in SOC back to starting levels (TOC ¼ 1.22% POC ¼ 0.12% at 0-10 cm) in all systems. The PP system had higher TOC%, POC% and HOC% levels on average and higher SOC stocks to 30 cm depth at the final measurement in 2015 (PP ¼ 30.43 t C ha 1 ; cropping systems ¼ 23.71 t C ha 1), compared to the other farming systems. There was a decrease in TN% over time in all farming systems except PP. The average C:N increased from 14.1 in 1999 to 19.7 in 2012, after which time the SOC levels decreased and C:N dropped back to 15.8. The temporal change in SOC was not able to be represented by the AusFarm model. There are three important conclusions for policy development: 1) monitoring temporal changes in SOC over 12 years did not indicate long-term sequestration, required to assure "permanence" in SOC trading (i.e. 25-100 years) due to the susceptibility of POC to degradation; 2) without monitoring SOC in reference land uses (e.g. CT cropping system as a control in this experiment) it is not possible to determine the net carbon sequestration, and therefore the true climate change mitigation value; and 3) modelling SOC using AusFarm/APSIM, does not fully represent the temporal dynamics of SOC in this low rainfall environment.
Climate Strategic Soil Management
Challenges, 2014
The complex and strong link between soil degradation, climate change and food insecurity is a global challenge. Sustainable agricultural systems must be integral to any agenda to address climate change and variability, improve renewable fresh water supply and quality, restore degraded soils and ecosystems and advance food security. These challenges are being exacerbated by increasing population and decreasing per capita arable land area and renewable fresh water supply, the increasing frequency of extreme events, the decreasing resilience of agroecosystems, an increasing income and affluent lifestyle with growing preference towards meat-based diet and a decreasing soil quality and use efficiency of inputs. Reversing these downward spirals implies the implementation of proven technologies, such as conservation agriculture, integrated nutrient management, precision agriculture, agroforestry systems, etc. Restoration of degraded soil and desertified ecosystems and the creation of positive soil and ecosystem C budgets are important. Urban agriculture and green roofs can reduce the energy footprint of production chains for urban and non-urban areas and enhance the recycling of by-products. Researchable priorities include sustainable land use and soil/water management options, judicious soil governance and modus operandi towards payments to land managers for the provisioning of ecosystem services.
Projected changes in mineral soil carbon of European croplands and grasslands, 1990-2080
Global Change Biology, 2005
We present the most comprehensive pan-European assessment of future changes in cropland and grassland soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks to date, using a dedicated process-based SOC model and state-of-the-art databases of soil, climate change, land-use change and technology change. Soil carbon change was calculated using the Rothamsted carbon model on a European 10 × 10′ grid using climate data from four global climate models implementing four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios (SRES). Changes in net primary production (NPP) were calculated by the Lund–Potsdam–Jena model. Land-use change scenarios, interpreted from the narratives of the IPCC SRES story lines, were used to project changes in cropland and grassland areas. Projections for 1990–2080 are presented for mineral soil only.Climate effects (soil temperature and moisture) will tend to speed decomposition and cause soil carbon stocks to decrease, whereas increases in carbon input because of increasing NPP will slow the loss. Technological improvement may further increase carbon inputs to the soil. Changes in cropland and grassland areas will further affect the total soil carbon stock of European croplands and grasslands. While climate change will be a key driver of change in soil carbon over the 21st Century, changes in technology and land-use change are estimated to have very significant effects.When incorporating all factors, cropland and grassland soils show a small increase in soil carbon on a per area basis under future climate (1–7 t C ha−1 for cropland and 3–6 t C ha−1 for grassland), but when the greatly decreasing area of cropland and grassland are accounted for, total European cropland stocks decline in all scenarios, and grassland stocks decline in all but one scenario. Different trends are seen in different regions. For Europe (the EU25 plus Norway and Switzerland), the cropland SOC stock decreases from 11 Pg in 1990 by 4–6 Pg (39–54%) by 2080, and the grassland SOC stock increases from 6 Pg in 1990 to 1.5 Pg (25%) under the B1 scenario, but decreases to 1–3 Pg (20–44%) under the other scenarios. Uncertainty associated with the land-use and technology scenarios remains unquantified, but worst-case quantified uncertainties are 22.5% for croplands and 16% for grasslands, equivalent to potential errors of 2.5 and 1 Pg SOC, respectively. This is equivalent to 42–63% of the predicted SOC stock change for croplands and 33–100% of the predicted SOC stock change for grasslands. Implications for accounting for SOC changes under the Kyoto Protocol are discussed.
2010
We investigate the impacts of sustainable land management practices on soil carbon stocks and also impacts of soil carbon on the mean and variance of crop production using econometric tools. Using a cross-sectional plot-level dataset collected from three agroecological zones of Uganda with soil carbon measured at a depth of 0 to 15 centimeters, our results have robustly shown that irrigation, fertilizers, improved fallow, crop residues, mulching, and trash lines are positively and significantly associated with higher soil carbon, corroborating results from agronomic experiments. However, we found crop rotation associated with lower soil carbon, which has also been observed in some agronomic experiments. Soil carbon has shown a significant nonlinear effect on crop production with the threshold occurring at 29.96 milligrams of carbon per hectare, above which farmers start to see significant positive effects on crop production. Furthermore, we found soil carbon to be associated with lower variance of crop production; hence, soil carbon is an indicator of crop yield loss risk (soil carbon has a risk-reducing effect). These empirical results have demonstrated strong evidence for developing countries of the potential of sustainable land management practices to enhance carbon sequestration and also the potential of soil carbon to reduce production risk. The results have implications for the role that soil carbon can play in adaptation to climate change and provision of ecosystem services.
Sustainability
One approach to increasing the climate-regulating potential of the agricultural sector is carbon sequestration in agricultural soils. This involves storing atmospheric carbon dioxide in the soil in the form of soil organic carbon (SOC) through agricultural management practices (AMPs). Model simulations of area-specific current and future SOC stocks can be used to test appropriate AMPs. In this study, the CANDY Carbon Balance (CCB) model was used to determine how different AMPs could affect SOC stocks in a study area in northern Saxony, Germany. Specifically, we used scenarios with different intensities of sustainable AMPs to assess the potential effects of reduced tillage, crop cultivation, and fertilizer management, as well as the management of crop residues and by-products. The analysis was carried out for the simulation period 2020–2070, with and without consideration of climate change effects. The results showed an average carbon sequestration potential of 5.13–7.18 t C ha−1 for...
Scientific Reports, 2016
Climate change and stagnating crop yields may cause a decline of SOC stocks in agricultural soils leading to considerable CO 2 emissions and reduced agricultural productivity. Regional model-based SOC projections are needed to evaluate these potential risks. In this study, we simulated the future SOC development in cropland and grassland soils of Bavaria in the 21 st century. Soils from 51 study sites representing the most important soil classes of Central Europe were fractionated and derived SOC pools were used to initialize the RothC soil carbon model. For each site, long-term C inputs were determined using the C allocation method. Model runs were performed for three different C input scenarios as a realistic range of projected yield development. Our modelling approach revealed substantial SOC decreases of 11-16% under an expected mean temperature increase of 3.3 °C assuming unchanged C inputs. For the scenario of 20% reduced C inputs, agricultural SOC stocks are projected to decline by 19-24%. Remarkably, even the optimistic scenario of 20% increased C inputs led to SOC decreases of 3-8%. Projected SOC changes largely differed among investigated soil classes. Our results indicated that C inputs have to increase by 29% to maintain present SOC stocks in agricultural soils.