Democracy Postponed: A political economy of Brazil’s oligarchic foreign policy (original) (raw)
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Brazilian foreign policy is undergoing a progressive, yet still modest, process of transformation. The country’s social and economic transformations and intense social pressure in order to open-up the black box of policy making have made the democratization of foreign policy not just inevitable, but also essential for Brazil’s aspirations for prominence on the world stage.
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For some time, foreign policy as an expression was perfectly interchangeable with diplomacy, given the degree of leverage enjoyed by diplomatic corps in Brazil's political system. However, there has arguably been some degree of discontinuity in this trajectory, which is noticeable from a couple of trends: Brazil's strategy toward Western powers vis-à-vis the rise of Asia,on the one hand, and democratization of foreign policymaking and the resulting tumultuous relationship between the foreign ministry and the presidency of the country, on the other. I posit that, from Fernando Henrique Cardoso to Jair Bolsonaro, this combination of factors prompted an epochal shift in Brazil's external relations, whose bottom line might be Itamaraty's demise as chief formulator while other governmental bureaucracies, political parties and individuals take over as the gravity centre, turning the contents of Brazil's foreign policy more responsive to social inputs, however less predictable and coherent over time.
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In recent times the interaction between democracy and foreign policy has begun to be studied and theorized in Brazil. The link between politics and foreign policy is not new, however, the focus of this article is on the shifts that have taken place since t he beginning of the democratic regime. Its aim is to identify changes in Brazilian foreign policy based on ideas and political preferences due to alternation of governments; and deconstruct the idea that Brazilian foreign policy is a state policy, limited to superficial changes. Following a discussion of the recent literature about changes in foreign policy, the article maps the changes that occurred between 1990 and 2003 and analyses Brazilian foreign policy behavior towards South America during the Worker's Party administrations. Based on a comparative perspective, it examines the changes in Brazilian behavior toward the region during the Temer administration. This was the area where foreign policy experienced strongest transformations. Finally, the article briefly points out the changes that occurred in foreign policy towards South America at the beginning of Bolsonaro's administration. The methodology, especially in relation to the Temer and Bolsonaro administrations, uses press material and interviews with foreign policymakers.