Fault-tree models of accident scenarios of RoPax vessels (original) (raw)
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The paper presents the results of a recent risk analysis study for RoPax vessels, carried out as part of the activities of the SAFEDOR Integrated Project. The objective of this study was to investigate the causes of hazards during RoPax operation and quantify, to the extent possible, their frequencies and consequences. Potential scenarios initially identified and prioritised during a Hazard Identification (HAZID) session were used in the process. The work has been performed in accordance with the IMO FSA Guidelines . A previous comprehensive study on the safety assessment of RoPax vessels sailing in North-West European waters, covering the period until 1994, was used as the basis in putting together a high-level risk model for the current study. All scenarios are presented in the form of event trees, quantification of which is done on the basis of world-wide accident experience (from 1994 to 2004), relevant past studies and judgment. The study estimates the risk of loss of life among passengers and crew (by calculating for each scenario the Individual Risk, the Potential Loss of Life -PLL and plotting the corresponding F-N curves), and compares them with current risk acceptance criteria. The resulting high-level risk model is used to provide recommendations for improvement in the form of proposed risk control options (RCOs).
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Safety has been a primary concern in every industry. It includes system, personnel, environmental safety, etc. Maritime transportation safety is of the utmost importance because a lot of economic and environmental damage has been caused by ship-related accidents. The majority of these accidents have resulted from human factors. For the analysis of accidents and future safety, various accident models have been created. In this study, human-based errors are analyzed and quantified by using the fuzzy fault tree analysis, which helps calculate the failure probability of the causes. A real-life case of a chemical tanker Key Bora was studied and analyzed, which happened on 28 March 2020, at Kyleakin Pier, Isle of Skye, Scotland. The ship’s hull was seriously damaged and was flooded. According to the analysis, two main human factors that contributed the most to the occurrence of this accident were found. These incidents can be avoided by ensuring proper measures are followed, and the resul...
Journal of ETA Maritime Science
One of the most important elements of maritime transportation which is a way of the world trade is the ships. Depending on their purpose, the vessels include many classifications, such as; commercial vessels, service vessels and war ships. Commercial vessels include tankers. Therefore, tankers that are an important point of trade have been developing together with technology. However, the measures taken by the developing technology and the regulations in the maritime sector made cannot reduce the sea accidents to zero. In this study, marine accidents occurred during loading and unloading operations at the tanker terminals were analyzed in terms of human factor and safety. Reports in between 2000 and 2014 of IMO (International Maritime Organization) GISIS (Global Integrated Shipping Information System), MAIB and Maritime Safety Authority of New Zealand and others were investigated. A total of 10 vessel accidents involving the appropriate data were analyzed and classified according to the results. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) method was used to create the causes of accidents and the results have been tested with Monte Carlo Simulation. As a conclusion, failure to comply with operating procedures and lack of knowledge were found to be the most important factors.
Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship-ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a maritime transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.
Statistical analysis of ship accidents and review of safety level
Safety may be defined as an acceptable state of risk by society. In this respect, for assessing the current safety level of ships, it is necessary to quantify the risk level of the operating world fleet, thus estimate and assess the basic contributors to risk, namely the frequency of maritime accidents and the extent of their consequences. The present investigation was motivated by earlier published work of Det Norske Veritas (DNV, 2006), in which they were some alarming signals of worsening of the level of maritime safety. A justified question therefore is whether and how the level of ship safety changed thereafter. Recalling that a fundamental step of a Formal Safety Assessment of maritime assets is the investigation of relevant casualty reports and the analysis of historical data, which characterise the maritime safety performance in the studied period, the herein presented work deals with a systematic analysis of ship accidents in the last decade as a way to evaluate the current level of safety for the majority of ship sub-types present in the world merchant fleet and to conclude on the foreseeable future. The presented analysis also includes a deeper investigation about possible relationships between accident rates and ship's age, which proved more complex than initially thought. The outcome of the present study indicates that in the last decade although the frequencies of ship accidents generally increased, the safety level of various ship types did not significantly change, as the consequences of accidents remained in average at about the same level.
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This paper deals with a statistical analysis of maritime accidents pertaining to passenger ships in worldwide operation and, ultimately, with the assessment of the current safety level of the particular ship type, assuming that the safety level may be defined as a societally acceptable level of risk. The basic risk contributors, namely the frequency of main accidents’ occurrence and related consequences, are herein quantified and assessed. The presented analysis, covering the last two decades (2000–2021), shows that there has been a considerable reduction in the frequency of serious accidents’ occurrence in the last decade, whereas associated consequences do not exhibit the same trend since the frequency of ship total losses and of fatalities has increased. However, fatality rates are, to a great extent, affected by accidents of ships not compliant with safety regulations. This study also confirmed that grounding and contact accidents dominate the statistics of passenger ships of al...