Statistical methods for the analysis of simulated and observed climate data, applied in projects and institutions dealing with climate change impact and adaptation., 135 S (original) (raw)
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2010
Within the start-up project "Regional and local dimension of climate change: identification of the impact of climate variability and extreme events using the example of heat and drought in Baden-Württemberg" an analysis of the impact of climate change will be conducted. The research is based on simulations of several regional climate models using A1B and B1 scenarios. The investigation area is Baden-Württemberg with focus on heat and drought. Especially the frequency and duration of climate events, short time events like heat waves or droughts, will be analysed. The impact of such climate events can influence sectors (water and energy) and different branches of industry (tourism, health and agriculture). Present research is focused on the identification of heat waves and droughts and on possible affects on viticulture during the 21 st century. First results of the project are presented.
2014
One of the biggest challenges of current climate research is to analyse and understand the regional effects of global climate change, especially to describe consequences and impacts of climate change on a socially relevant scale. This is where the Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM focuses on. Since October 2009 experts of the nine German Centres of the Helmholtz Association‘s research field Earth and Environment are working together on different interdisciplinary research topics. In cooperation with nine universities, the Helmholtz research centres combine their expertise in regional climate change research. Regional observations and process studies coupled with model simulations will help to improve regional and global climate models, which provide a more solid basis for climate-related decision support. REKLIM contributes to the strengthening of interdisciplinary regional climate research in Germany. The Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM addresses the following research topics...
2014
A Climate Change Index (CCI) was designed to assess the degree of susceptibility to the climatic extremes projected for the future. Climate projections for the period 2041-2070 are extracted from the numerical integrations of INPE’s Eta-HadCM3 model, using the SRES A1B emissions scenario. Five indicators were chosen to represent the climatic extremes: Total annual precipitation, precipitation on the days of heavy rain, the maximum number of consecutive dry days in the year and the annual mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures. The methodology was applied to the state of Paraná. The results point to a very strong warming in 99% of the municipalities, with temperature increases between 6 and 8 times greater than the variance observed in the present climate. On the other hand, projections of precipitation do not indicate major changes in relation to present behavior.
2012
Climate change is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most of the countries and international organisms UNO, OECD, EC, etc •.• the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. Nevertheless, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model should help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, that will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly, in vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will take into consideration criteria of physical type (meteorological, edaphic, water resources), of use of the ground (agriculturist, forest, mining, industrial, urban, tourist, cattle dealer), economic (income, costs, benefits, infrastructures), social (population), politician (implementation, legislation), educative (Educational programs, diffusion), sanitary and environmental, at the present moment and the future.
Indices for extreme events in projections of anthropogenic climate change
Climatic Change, 2008
Indices for temperature and precipitation extremes are calculated on the basis of the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM simulations of the twentieth century and SRES A1B and B1 emission scenarios for the twenty-first century. For model evaluation, the simulated indices representing the present climate were compared with indices based on observational data. This comparison shows that the model is able to realistically capture the observed climatological large-scale patterns of temperature and precipitation indices, although the quality of the simulations depends on the index and region under consideration. In the climate projections for the twenty-first century, all considered temperature-based indices, minimum Tmin, maximum Tmax, and the frequency of tropical nights, show a significant increase worldwide. Similarly, extreme precipitation, as represented by the maximum 5-day precipitation and the 95th percentile of precipitation, is projected to increase significantly in most regions of the world, especially in those that are relatively wet already under present climate conditions. Analogously, dry spells increase particularly in those regions that are characterized by dry conditions in present-day climate. Future changes in the indices exhibit distinct regional and seasonal patterns as identified exemplarily in three European regions.
2001
13.4.1.3 Applications of the methods to impacts 752 13.4.2 Temporal Variability 752 13.4.2.1 Incorporation of changes in variability: daily to interannual timescales 752 13.4.2.2 Other techniques for incorporating extremes into climate scenarios 754 13.5 Representing Uncertainty in Climate Scenarios 755 13.5.1 Key Uncertainties in Climate Scenarios 755 13.5.1.1 Specifying alternative emissions futures 755 13.5.1.2 Uncertainties in converting emissions to concentrations 755 13.5.1.3 Uncertainties in converting concentrations to radiative forcing 755 13.5.1.4 Uncertainties in modelling the climate response to a given forcing 755 13.5.1.5 Uncertainties in converting model response into inputs for impact studies 756 13.
Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment
2000
Box 2 The CRU Global Climate Data Set 17 Box 3 The SRES A1 Scenario Family 40 Box 4 Using Simple Models to Estimate Global Mean Temperature and Sea-Level * The terms scenario and projection are used interchangeably in this report to indicate "a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future state of the world" (IPCC, 1994). * An exposure unit is an activity, group, region or resource exposed to significant climatic variations (IPCC, 1994).