Hydrological response in the Danube lower basin to some internal and external climate forcing factors (original) (raw)

2016, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions

Of the internal factors, we tested the predictors from the fields of precipitation, temperature, pressure and geopotential at 500hPa. From the external factors, we considered the indices of solar/geomagnetic activity. Our analysis was achieved separately for each season, for two time periods 1901–2000 and 1948–2000. We applied developments in empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), cross correlations, power spectra, filters, composite maps. In analysis of the correlative results, we took into account, the serial correlation of time series. For the atmospheric variables simultaneously, the most significant results (confidence levels of 95 %) are related to the predictors, considering the difference between standardized temperatures and precipitation (TPP), except for winter season, when the best predictors are the first principal component (PC1) of the precipitation field and the Greenland-Balkan-Oscillation index (GBOI). The GBOI is better predictor for precipitati...