Does fertilizer use respond to rainfall variability? Panel data evidence from Ethiopia (original) (raw)
Related papers
2011
The northern Ethiopian highland in general and the Tigray region in particular is a drought prone area where agricultural production risk is prevalent. Moisture stress is a limiting factor for improved agricultural input mainly fertilizer use. Lack of capital and consumption smoothing mechanisms limits households' investment in production enhancing agricultural inputs, possibly leading into poverty trap. Using a Cragg (Double Hurdle) model, we analyzed how rainfall risks, access to irrigation and food deficits affect the probability that farm households' use fertilizer and given that the probability is positive and significant, the amount (intensity) of fertilizer use. Accordingly, we found that households were more likely to use fertilizer and that they used significantly higher amounts of fertilizer on their irrigated plots than on rain-fed plots. Furthermore, households with access to irrigation were more likely to use fertilizer, but the intensity (amount) of fertilizer they used was not significantly different from those households without access to irrigation. In investigating the effect of rainfall risk on fertilizer use, we found that fertilizer use was significantly higher in areas with higher average rainfall and in areas with lower rainfall variability. In general, irrigation was found significantly important for fertilizer adoption mainly in areas with low rainfall and high rainfall variability. Finally, we investigate the effect of food deficit on fertilizer adoption and found that both food self-sufficient and food deficit households were less likely to use fertilizer as coping mechanism. However, among those who decided to adopt, the food deficit households used higher amount of fertilizer than the food self-sufficient.
Rainfall variability and food crop portfolio choice: evidence from Ethiopia
Food Security, 2012
This paper concerns the patterns of food crop choice in a multicropping setting, in which production risk considerations and rainfall uncertainty are likely to be critical factors. The analysis employed plot level panel data from Ethiopia, combined with 30 year meteorological data corresponding to the survey villages used to construct seasonal and yearly rainfall variability. Using the single index approach, the riskiness of crop portfolio was constructed at a household level, taking into account the multicropping nature of the farming system. The combined riskiness of crops grown at a household level responded negatively to annual rainfall variability, with seasonal rainfall variability having a less consistent impact. Farmers are, therefore, more likely to select less risky crop portfolios even when intercrop interactions are taken into account. Keywords Crop choice. Risk index. Ethiopia. Annual and seasonal rainfall variability We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers and Richard Strange for comments and suggestions. The usual disclaimer applies.
Modeling crop yield and farmer adaptation to rainfall variability : the case of Southern Ethiopia
2016
Improving the livelihood of poor households in developing countries by increasing agricultural productivity and production becomes the priority agenda for development actors. However, variability in rainfall has confronted success in achieving this goal. There is pressing interest in analyzing the effects of rainfall variability on household welfare and identifying policy interventions to mitigate its adverse effects. Ethiopian economy primarily depends on rain-fed agriculture. Agriculture is the backbone of the country’s economy; it contributes the lions share of GDP, employment, export earnings, and livelihood. Fluctuations in rainfall distribution and intensity have severely affected the economy in general and the livelihood of smallholder households in particular; the agricultural sector is more prone to changes in climatic condition, which increases the risk of poverty and hunger for poor farm households. Few studies have attempted to analyze the direct effects of rainfall vari...
The Impacts of Fertilizer Credit on Crop Production and Income in Ethiopia
Emerging Development of Agriculture in East Africa, 2011
In this chapter, we evaluate the impact of fertilizer credit on crop choice, crop yield, and income using two-year panel data of 420 households in rural Ethiopia. The fertilizer credit is found to increase input application for crop production. As a consequence, it has a substantial impact on the yield of teff. We also find that the impact on net crop income per cultivated area and also on per capita income is marginal because of the low profitability due to the low output price and high input cost of agricultural production.
Does weather risk explain low uptake of agricultural credit ?: Evidence from Ethiopia
2018
Credit markets are key instruments by which liquidity constrained smallholder farmers may finance productivity investments. However, the documented low demand and uptake of agricultural credit by smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa poses challenges for energizing rural transformation in the region. In this paper we investigate the impact of rainfall uncertainty (and risk more generally) on the expressed demand for credit among rural households in Ethiopia. We explore potential mechanisms through which weather risk may explain the low demand for credit. We also examine the consequences of uninsured rainfall uncertainty on productivity-enhancing and loss-reducing agricultural investments. We provide evidence that rainfall uncertainty dampens households’ demand for agricultural credit. Rainfall uncertainty is associated with credit risk-rationing, which underlies the low demand for agricultural credit in Ethiopia. We also show that rainfall uncertainty helps to explain the low up...
Rain and impatience: Evidence from rural Ethiopia
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2019
We have combined farm household panel data, weather data and discount rates, as measured by a hypothetical survey question, to estimate the impact of income on discounting. This paper has found that income variation driven by anomalies in rainfall during the main growing season is a strong predictor of farmers' subjective discount rates. Farmers prefer a smaller immediate reward to a larger deferred one when affected by negative income shocks, while they display lower discount rates when the income shocks are positive. We have also found that higher discount rates are negatively correlated with profitable agricultural investments.
Effect of Climate Variability on Crop Income in Central Ethiopia
Turkish Journal of Agriculture - Food Science and Technology, 2017
Ethiopian agriculture is a vulnerable sector from effects of climate variability. This study identified how strong is the effect of climate variability on smallholders' crop income in Central highlands and Arssi grain plough farming systems of the country. The unbalanced panel data (1994-2014) of the study collected for eight rounds analysed through fixed effect regression. The model result shows that successive increment of crop season rainfall keeping the temperature constant has negative and significant effect on households' crop income in the study area. The crop income responds similarly for temperature increment if the rainfall remains constant. Given this, simultaneous increment of the two climate related inputs has positive and significant effect on crop income. Other variables like flood, frost, storm, and rainfall inconsistency in the onset and cessation time affected households' crop income negatively and significantly. Similarly, draught power and human labour, which are critical inputs in the crop production of Ethiopian smallholders, have positive and significant effect on crop income as to the model result. Thus, this study recommended that there should be supplementing the rainfall through irrigation, check dam and other activities to have consistent water supply for the crop production that enable smallholders to collect better income. Additionally, negative effect of temperature increment should be curved through adopting long lasting strategies like afforestation.
Despite decades of international attention to find solutions for the annual food shortages in Ethiopia, the problem still persists. This study, carried out in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia, focuses on farmers' strategies to counter yield failures and food shortages. It reveals that farmers indeed perceive a decrease in crop productivity and food production over the last decades, and that they blame a decline in rainfall for this. As a consequence, farmers apply different strategies to cope with, and adapt to perceived rainfall shortages and related expected yield losses: i.e. they sell more livestock, they migrate elsewhere, they change their crops and agricultural practices, and they rely more heavily on food relief programs. However, an analysis of rainfall data in the CRV shows that rainfall characteristics (mainly annual rainfall total) have not changed over the last three decades. Moreover, according to analysis of official data, crop productivity per hectare in the CRV even shows a slight increase over the last decade. The interpretation of this result is not straightforward. The farmers' perception of a decline in crop productivity and rainfall may be related to (i) the increased demand to grow more crops to feed the rapidly growing population (hence, food availability per capita has declined), and (ii) the lower moisture availability for plant growth resulted from soil fertility decline and soil erosion.