Prediction of Recidivism in Incest Offenders (original) (raw)

1999, Journal of Interpersonal Violence

Two hundred and fifty-one incest offenders were followed for an average of 6.7 years after their conviction. The percentage of men who had committed a sexual, violent or any criminal offense by the 12 th year was 6.4, 12.4 and 26.7 respectively. The sexual recidivists scored higher on the Michigan Alcohol Screening Test (MAST), and the Psychopathy Checklist-R (PCL-R). The violent recidivists had higher MAST and PCL-R scores as well as more violence in their police records. In terms of any criminal recidivism, recidivists were seven years older, their families of origin were more disturbed and they reported higher rates of being physically abused and being removed from their homes prior to 16 years of age. In addition, recidivists demonstrated more general hostility on the Buss-Durkee Hostility Inventory, higher MAST and PCL-R scores. They also had more charges or convictions for sexual, violent and any criminal acts on their police records. The small number of significant differences between recidivists and non recidivists in the sexual and violent categories precluded an attempt to determine which combination of factors meaningfully predicted reoffending. However, for criminal recidivism, a step-wise discriminant function analysis to assess the combination of factors that most successfully distinguished between groups was significant. A combination of total criminal offenses, PCL-R, age and the number of previous sexual offenses correctly classified 97.6% of the non recidivists and 35.4% of the recidivists. This represents a rate of improvement over chance of 20.7% for non recidivists and 12.3% for recidivists. Incest offenders 3C The large number of incest offenders as well as the psychological and financial consequences of their offenses has raised serious public policy questions concerning their management by the Criminal Justice System. Hanson, Steffy, & Gauthier (1993) have stressed the need for valid empirical information to avoid the potential problems associated with poor management of sex offenders and their risk for reoffending. Although there is a growing body of literature related to sexual recidivism, a recent comprehensive meta-analysis found that only six of 61 studies which met inclusion criteria were concerned with child molesters, and fewer studied pure groups of incest offenders (Hanson & Bussière, 1998). Quinsey, Lalumière, Rice, & Harris (1995) reviewed published papers on recidivism in sex offenders, and were able to locate four studies with incest offenders only, published between 1962 and 1981 (three British and one from California). They reported the average weighted sexual reoffense rate for these investigations was 8.5%. To date, the limited research indicates incest offenders recidivate at a lower rate than extrafamilial child molesters, and suggests variables predicting recidivism may differ for the groups as well (