The Hot (Invisible?) Hand: Can Time Sequence Patterns of Success/Failure in Sports Be Modeled as Repeated Random Independent Trials? (original) (raw)
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2021
We investigate the predictability and persistence (hot-hand effect) of individual and team performance by analyzing the complete recorded history of international cricket. We introduce an original temporal representation of performance streaks, which is suitable to be modelled as a self-exciting point process. We confirm the presence of predictability and hot-hands across the individual performance and the absence of the same in team performance and game outcome. Thus, Cricket is a game of skill for individuals and a game of chance for the teams. Our study contributes to recent historiographical debates concerning the presence of persistence in individual and collective productivity and success. The introduction of several metrics and methods can be useful to test and exploit clustering of performance in the study of human behavior and design of algorithms for predicting success.
The Statistical Examination of Winning and Succeeding in Sports
Certain statistical strategies that cater to a particular team's style of play can enable a team to establish a competitive advantage in a sporting event. The purpose of this paper is to cultivate a linear statistical model that contributes to the success of a competitive sporting game between two teams. Using a linear success metric, this paper also examines the relationship between the success of both teams and the scoreboard outcomes of these respective sporting events. This linear statistical model is independent of the given score of a sporting event. This researcher uses empirical data from 5,200 games in the 2017-2018 season across all 4 major professional sports leagues in North America (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL). Results suggest that roughly 94% of the scoreboard outcomes agree with the success rate instituted in this study. The results also highlight Coach Wooden's distinction between winning and succeeding where the conclusion of 306 games comprises of winning teams that do not have a higher "success rate" than the losing team. The principles of the statistical metric used in this paper provide practical implications in economics through game theory and technical analysis in finance.
The Annals of Applied Statistics, 2018
Statistical applications in sports have long centered on how to best separate signal (e.g., team talent) from random noise. However, most of this work has concentrated on a single sport, and the development of meaningful cross-sport comparisons has been impeded by the difficulty of translating luck from one sport to another. In this manuscript we develop Bayesian state-space models using betting market data that can be uniformly applied across sporting organizations to better understand the role of randomness in game outcomes. These models can be used to extract estimates of team strength, the between-season, within-season and game-to-game variability of team strengths, as well each team's home advantage. We implement our approach across a decade of play in each of the National Football League (NFL), National Hockey League (NHL), National Basketball Association (NBA) and Major League Baseball (MLB), finding that the NBA demonstrates both the largest dispersion in talent and the largest home advantage, while the NHL and MLB stand out for their relative randomness in game outcomes. We conclude by proposing new metrics for judging competitiveness across sports leagues, both within the regular season and using traditional postseason tournament formats. Although we focus on sports, we discuss a number of other situations in which our generalizable models might be usefully applied.
Luck Clustering in Sports: Applications and Implications for Performance and Strategy
The notion of luck clustering has gained traction in recent years due to its potential influence on performance and decision-making across a range of domains. This study concentrates on the application of luck clustering in sports, with an emphasis on its consequences for performance metrics and strategic decision-making. We employ time series analysis to investigate the presence of luck clustering in sports data, such as win-loss records, scoring, and player rankings, while considering the role of the Principle of Luck Conservation in the observed clustering patterns. Our findings provide evidence of luck clustering in sports, implying that periods of high luck tend to be followed by more high luck events, and vice versa for low luck events. These insights carry significant implications for coaches, players, and teams, who can utilize the understanding of luck clustering to develop more effective strategies, manage resources efficiently, and ultimately enhance their performance. By...
“Hot Hand” on Strike: Bowling Data Indicates Correlation to Recent Past Results, Not Causality
PLoS ONE, 2012
Recently, the ''hot hand'' phenomenon regained interest due to the availability and accessibility of large scale data sets from the world of sports. In support of common wisdom and in contrast to the original conclusions of the seminal paper about this phenomenon by Gilovich, Vallone and Tversky in 1985, solid evidences were supplied in favor of the existence of this phenomenon in different kinds of data. This came after almost three decades of ongoing debates whether the ''hot hand'' phenomenon in sport is real or just a mis-perception of human subjects of completely random patterns present in reality. However, although this phenomenon was shown to exist in different sports data including basketball free throws and bowling strike rates, a somehow deeper question remained unanswered: are these non random patterns results of causal, short term, feedback mechanisms or simply time fluctuations of athletes performance. In this paper, we analyze large amounts of data from the Professional Bowling Association(PBA). We studied the results of the top 100 players in terms of the number of available records (summed into more than 450,000 frames). By using permutation approach and dividing the analysis into different aggregation levels we were able to supply evidence for the existence of the ''hot hand'' phenomenon in the data, in agreement with previous studies. Moreover, by using this approach, we were able to demonstrate that there are, indeed, significant fluctuations from game to game for the same player but there is no clustering of successes (strikes) and failures (non strikes) within each game. Thus we were lead to the conclusion that bowling results show correlation to recent past results but they are not influenced by them in a causal manner.
The Hot Hand in Basketball: Fallacy or Adaptive Thinking? The Hot Hand as Fallacy
In basketball, players believe that they should "feed the hot hand," by giving the ball to a player more often if that player has hit a number of shots in a row. However, analyzed basketball players' successive shots and showed that they are independent events. Thus the hot hand seems to be a fallacy. Taking the correctness of their result as a starting point, I suggest that if one looks at the hot hand phenomena from Gigerenzer & Todd's (1999) adaptive thinking point of view, then the relevant question to ask is does belief in the hot hand lead to more scoring by a basketball team? By simulation I show that the answer to this question is yes, essentially because streaks are predictive of a player's shooting percentage. Thus belief in the hot hand may be an effective, fast and frugal heuristic for deciding how to allocate shots between member of a team.
The “hot hand” revisited: A nonstationarity argument
The "hot hand belief," that a basketball player would experience elevated performance for a certain period of time, during which consecutive shots are made in streaks, has been suggested to be a "cognitive illusion," because, from the basketball-shooting data, no significant evidence has been found to reject the simple binomial model. The present study raises concerns about the statistical methods used to support this claim. It is argued that nonstationarity may manifest as a residual effect when the changes in shooting accuracy are interrupted by activities such as shot selection and defense effort. Reanalyses of the field goal data from the earlier study showed that the serial correlation varied substantially between positive ("hot hand shooting") and negative ("over-alternation shooting"). In addition, a nested model comparison revealed that when a player's shooting accuracy fluctuated substantially in a short period of time, it was unlikely to be detected by the binomial model. Our results suggest that paying special attention to streak patterns in the hot hand belief may be an adaptive strategy in detecting changes in the environment.
How Much Is Winning a Matter of Luck? A Comparison of 3 × 3 and 5v5 Basketball
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Background: The comparison of team sports based on luck has a long tradition and remains unsolved. A contrast between the new Olympic format three-on-three (3 × 3) and five-on-five (5v5) forms of basketball has never been analyzed and provides a comparison within the same form of sports. Methods: We developed a new method to calculate performance indicators for each team and invented the Relative Score Difference Index, a new competitive balance indicator that allows the comparison of luck in the two basketball forms for both men and women. We collected game-level data about 3 × 3 and 5v5 from the World Cups held between 2010 and 2019 (N = 666). Luck was defined as the difference between the expected and the actual outcomes of games. Using the basketball World Cup data, we applied the Surprise Index, ran probit regression models, and compared the basketball forms on the goodness-of-fit of the models. Results: As we predicted, there are differential effects of luck between game forma...