Bayesian tracking of emerging epidemics using optimal statistical interpolation (OSI) (original) (raw)
We explore the use of the optimal statistical interpolation (OSI) data assimilation method for the statistical tracking of emerging epidemics and to study the spatial dynamics of a disease. The epidemic models that we used for this study are spatial variants of the common susceptible-infectious-removed (S-I-R) compartmental model of epidemiology. The spatial S-I-R epidemic model is illustrated by application to simulated spatial dynamic epidemic data from the historic "Black Death" plague of 14th century Europe. Bayesian statistical tracking of emerging epidemic diseases using the OSI as it unfolds is illustrated for a simulated epidemic wave originating in Santa Fe, New Mexico.
Sign up for access to the world's latest research.
checkGet notified about relevant papers
checkSave papers to use in your research
checkJoin the discussion with peers
checkTrack your impact
Loading Preview
Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. You can download the paper by clicking the button above.