Eatwell Guide: modelling the dietary and cost implications of incorporating new sugar and fibre guidelines (original) (raw)
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Healthy diets ASAP - Australian Standardised Affordability and Pricing methods protocol
Nutrition journal, 2018
This paper describes the rationale, development and final protocol of the Healthy Diets Australian Standardised Affordability and Pricing (ASAP) method which aims to assess, compare and monitor the price, price differential and affordability of healthy (recommended) and current (unhealthy) diets in Australia. The protocol is consistent with the International Network for Food and Obesity / non-communicable Diseases Research, Monitoring and Action Support's (INFORMAS) optimal approach to monitor food price and affordability globally. The Healthy Diets ASAP protocol was developed based on literature review, drafting, piloting and revising, with key stakeholder consultation at all stages, including at a national forum. The protocol was developed in five parts. Firstly, for the healthy (recommended) and current (unhealthy) diet pricing tools; secondly for calculation of median and low-income household incomes; thirdly for store location and sampling; fourthly for price data collectio...
Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 2020
BackgroundMost adults do not meet the recommended intake of five portions per day of fruit and vegetables (F&V) in England, but economic analyses of structural policies to change diet are sparse.MethodsUsing published data from official statistics and meta-epidemiological studies, we estimated the deaths, years-of-life lost (YLL) and the healthcare costs attributable to consumption of F&V below the recommended five portions per day by English adults. Then, we estimated the cost-effectiveness from governmental and societal perspectives of three policies: a universal 10% subsidy on F&V, a targeted 30% subsidy for low-income households and a social marketing campaign (SMC).FindingsConsumption of F&V below the recommended five portions a day accounted for 16 321 [10 091–23 516] deaths and 238 767 [170 350–311 651] YLL in England in 2017, alongside £705 951 [398 761–1 061 559] million in healthcare costs. All policies would increase consumption and reduce the disease burden attributable ...
2021
Background Fruit and vegetable consumption in the United Kingdom is currently well below recommended levels, with a significant associated public health burden. The United Kingdom has committed to reducing its carbon emissions to net zero by 2050, and this transition will require shifts towards plant-based diets. Objective The aim was to quantify the health effects, environmental footprints, and cost associated with 4 different pathways to meeting the United Kingdom's “5-a-day” recommendation for fruit and vegetable consumption. Methods Dietary data based on 18,006 food diaries from 4528 individuals participating in the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2012/13–2016/17) constituted the baseline diet. Linear programming was used to model the hypothetical adoption of the 5-a-day (400 g) recommendation, which was assessed according to 4 pathways differing in their prioritization of fruits versus vegetables and UK-produced versus imported varieties. Increases in fruit and veget...
BMJ, 2019
Objective To estimate the potential impact on body mass index (BMI) and prevalence of obesity of a 20% price increase in high sugar snacks. Design Modelling study. Setting General adult population of the United Kingdom. Participants 36 324 households with data on product level household expenditure from UK Kantar FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) panel for January 2012 to December 2013. Data were used to estimate changes in energy (kcal, 1 kcal=4.18 kJ=0.00418 MJ) purchase associated with a 20% price increase in high sugar snacks. Data for 2544 adults from waves 5 to 8 of the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2012-16) were used to estimate resulting changes in BMI and prevalence of obesity. Main outcome measures The effect on per person take home energy purchases of a 20% price increase for three categories of high sugar snacks: confectionery (including chocolate), biscuits, and cakes. Health outcomes resulting from the price increase were measured as changes in weight, BMI (not o...
Public Health Nutrition
Objective: To model dietary changes required to shift the UK population to diets that meet dietary recommendations for health, have lower greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) and are affordable for different income groups. Design: Linear programming was used to create diets that meet dietary requirements for health and reduced GHGE (57% and 80% targets) by income quintile, taking into account food budgets and foods currently purchased, thereby keeping dietary change to a minimum. Subjects: Nutrient composition, GHGE and price data were mapped to 101 food groups in household food purchase data (UK Living Cost and Food Survey (2013), n=5144 households). Results: Current diets of all income quintiles had similar total GHGE, but the source of GHGE differed by types of meat, and amount of fruit and vegetables. It was possible to create diets with a 57% reduction in GHGE that met dietary and cost restraints in all income groups. In the optimised diets, the food sources of GHGE differed by income group due to the cost and keeping the level of deviation from current diets to a minimum. Broadly, the changes needed were similar across all groups; reducing animal-based products and increasing plant-based foods but varied by specific foods. Conclusions: Healthy and lower GHGE diets could be created in all income quintiles but tailoring changes to income groups to minimise deviation may make dietary changes more achievable. Specific attention must be given to interventions and policies to be appropriate for all income groups.
Sustainability
Despite the interest in increasing the consumption of fruit and vegetables in the UK, the total average consumption is still below the recommended intakes. Evidence indicates that the UK government’s “five-a-day” policy has not been effective in reaching its goal. The results of fiscal policies (e.g., subsidies) to increase fruit and vegetable consumption are uncertain due to complex substitutions done by consumers amongst overall food choice. The goal of the present study was to estimate the prices (i.e., shadow prices) at which consumers can increase their intake of fruits and vegetables by 10% (higher than that achieved by the “five-a-day” policy) without changing the overall taste of the diet (utility). We estimated the ex-ante effect of increasing the UK’s fruit and vegetable consumption by 10% on household nutrient purchases and greenhouse gas emissions. The required changes in prices were estimated by extending the model of consumer behaviour under rationing. The model combin...