India and Pakistan: Why the Latest Exercise in Brinkmanship? (original) (raw)

2008, Australian Journal of Politics & History

The South Asian region has been once again in the limelight. It began with the Indian decision in September 1986 to hold the biggest ever multi-corps exercise seen in the region. New Delhi moved up from distant locations 11 divisions and 5 independent armoured brigades to positions in close proximity to Pakistan's borders. This concentration of more than 200,000 Indian troops was viewed with apprehension by Pakistan which was to start its own annual winter exercises in October. Normally these exercises are held each year for three months, ending in December. However, at their conclusion this time, the Pakistan government decided not to withdraw its forces to their previous locations in January 1987. It also issued the forward divisions with land mines and the Pakistan Air Force began making logistical preparations.' The Indian government reacted to Pakistan's decision by publicizing in the third week of January 1987 that Pakistan had massed at least 16 divisions along the Indian border from Jammu to Rajasthan in near combat readiness. On 23 January 1987, Delhi ordered its troops to assume positions closer again to the Western border and put its Army and Air Force on red alert in response to what it termed the 'continued mobilization of Pakistani troops all along the (Indo-Pakistan) border'. The Indian Navy was also told to 'keep its eyes open'. On the same day, the Indian Minister of State for External Affairs, Natwar Singh, summoned the Pakistani Ambassador, Humayun Khan, and demanded that the Pakistani forces be withdrawn to peacetime locations; failing that, India would take 'some counter-measures'.l The Pakistan government denied the Indian allegations, maintaining that its armed forces were engaged in normal winter exercises in their usual exercise areas, and that they were not concentrated anywhere on the Indo-Pakistan border. In contrast, Islamabad argued, India's concentration of more than 200,000 troops on the Indo-Pakistan border had given New Delhi 'a capability of aggression' which Pakistan could not ignore. However, claiming an interest in maintaining good neighbourly relations with India, Islamabad expressed its willingness to enter into negotiations with New Delhi and take 'reciprocal steps' to de-escalate the tension on the border^.^ The negotiations began in New Delhi on 30 January 1987 at the Foreign Secretaries' level. Five days later, the two sides agreed not to attack each other, to 'exercise the maximum restraint', and to 'adopt a sector by sector approach for the pull out of troops deployed on the border' by both India and Pakistan. As a first step in this direction, all offensive and defensive forces deployed by both sides in the Ravi-Chenab corridor were to be withdrawn to peace-time locations within 15 days of initialling the agreement. Additional formations which had been moved into the Ravi-Chenab corridor, including 6 armoured divisions and 17 infantry divisions on the Pakistani side, and 6 mountain divisions on the Indian side, were also to return to peace-time locations during the same period. Pakistan, however, was to retain one independent armoured brigade of the holding corps reserve in the sector. The two states also agreed to lift all the mines already laid along the common border, to lay no more mines in the area, to deactivate all satellite airfields, and to bring their respective navies to a lower state of operational readiness. It was also agreed that an Indian delegation * An earlier version of this article was published by the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University as Working Paper No. 125.