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Population and Human Capital Growth in Egypt: Projections for Governorates to 2051
Director, 2007
Human capital formation has been chosen as the initial focal point of this new IIASA population-development-environment case study on Egypt. With its population still likely to double and its water resources severely restricted, Egypt faces formidable population-and environment-related challenges. The government has an explicit population policy aimed at bringing the fertility rate down to replacement level by 2017. With its options for agricultural development severely limited, the future livelihood of this rapidly growing population can only be secured through rapid development in the industrial and service sectors. For both sectors, human capital development is a necessary prerequisite for success. Of course, such development needs to be complemented by the right investment and trade policies. But without a sufficiently well-educated population, Egypt will not be able to compete in the global service and industry markets. The study explores the human capital dimension at the aggregate level for the whole of Egypt and at the governorate level, distinguishing between 21 governorates and the Frontier Region. For each of the governorates a multi-state population projection model is defined that differentiates the population by age, sex, and level of education. The scenarios demonstrate the momentum of educational development: The challenges will be important for those governorates where past investments in education have been insufficient, especially for the female population, and where the working-age population will increase tremendously, such as in Fayoum, Menia, Assyout, and Suhag. The projections point to the necessity of major structural changes in the development of Egypt. v
On the Explorative Behavior of MAX–MIN Ant System
Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2009
Analyzing the behavior of stochastic procedures is generally recognized to be relevant. A possible way for doing so consists in observing the exploration performed. A formalization in this sense is proposed in the paper On the explorative behavior of MAX-MIN Ant System : A method for studying this aspect regardless the type of approach used is defined and tested. The consequent measure of exploration is applied to MAX-MIN Ant System: The impact of the values of the parameters on the exploration is assessed. The TSP is considered as benchmark. Moreover, the conclusions drawn are put in relation with the indications provided by the average λ-branching factor. Finally, some relations are pointed out between exploration and performance of the algorithm. Owing to lack of space, few results are reported in On the explorative behavior of MAX-MIN Ant System. A deeper experimental analysis is reported here.
Descriptive Statistics of the distributions of time visitation of bees per feeder at varying distances, directionalities and heights from the hive. (Experiment done on Descriptive Statistics of the distributions of time visitation of bees per feeder at varying distances, directionalities and heights from the hive. (Experiment done on August 12, 2009)
The Lancet
Background In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3·4 million deaths, 3·9% of years of life lost, and 3·8% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide. The rise in obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparable, up-to-date information about levels and trends is essential to quantify population health eff ects and to prompt decision makers to prioritise action. We estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980–2013. Methods We systematically identifi ed surveys, reports, and published studies (n=1769) that included data for height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. We used mixed eff ects linear regression to correct for bias in self-reports. We obtained data for prevalence of obesity and overweight by age, sex, country, and year (n=19 244) with a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Findings Worldwide, the proportion of adults with a body-mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m² or greater increased between 1980 and 2013 from 28·8% (95% UI 28·4–29·3) to 36·9% (36·3–37·4) in men, and from 29·8% (29·3–30·2) to 38·0% (37·5–38·5) in women. Prevalence has increased substantially in children and adolescents in developed countries; 23·8% (22·9–24·7) of boys and 22·6% (21·7–23·6) of girls were overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has also increased in children and adolescents in developing countries, from 8·1% (7·7–8·6) to 12·9% (12·3–13·5) in 2013 for boys and from 8·4% (8·1–8·8) to 13·4% (13·0–13·9) in girls. In adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeded 50% in men in Tonga and in women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has slowed down. Interpretation Because of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Not only is obesity increasing, but no national success stories have been reported in the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is needed to help countries to more eff ectively intervene."
This paper proposes and evaluates fourteen heuristic methods to solve the Alternative Subgraphs Assembly Line Balancing Problem, in which assembly variants (subgraphs) are allowed for different parts of an assembly process. To solve this problem efficiently, both subgraphs selection and task assignment have to be carried out simultaneously. All proposed methods aim at minimizing the number of workstations and use random choice to select the subgraphs and different decision rules to select the tasks to be assigned. The performance of these methods is evaluated and compared by means of a computational experiment based on medium and large scale benchmark problems.