Pathways for the European electricity supply system to 2050—The role of CCS to meet stringent CO2 reduction targets (original) (raw)
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Energy Procedia, 2011
This paper investigates how the European electricity generation system can meet deep cuts in CO2 emissions until the year 2050 with special focus on national conditions for CCS. An 85% reduction in CO2 emissions until 2050 is imposed. The analysis is carried out with a techno-economic model (minimizing the system cost) including a detailed description of the present stationary European electricity generation system (power plants) and potential CO 2 storage sites as obtained from the Chalmers Energy Infrastructure Database. The modeling puts a cap on CO2 emissions from the system which gives a price on these emissions, i.e. similar to the effect of the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), which is the main policy instrument for controlling GHG emissions within EU. Emphasize is put on analyzing turnover in capital stock of the existing power plant infrastructure, timing of investments and the infrastructural implications of large scale introduction of CCS on a regional perspective, including the effect of investing in new transmission capacity between member states. The work compares two scenarios, one used in a previous work with significant growth in electricity consumption and one assuming that energy efficiency measures are successfully applied in line with the recent EU energy policy package. The results show that it is possible to meet an 85% CO 2 reduction target by 2050 at a cost of some 50 to 80€/ton CO2 over the period up to 2050, but this will require large contributions from CCS and electricity from renewable sources (mainly wind and biomass). Yet, without significant energy efficiency measures it is questionable if such large investments in generation technologies are feasible. Thus, to reach an 85% reduction in CO2 emissions from the electricity generation system by 2050 is not a matter of choice between different technologies and energy efficiency measures but all of these are required and the crucial point is if there will be a high enough price on CO2 emissions.
The role of CCS in the European electricity supply system
Energy Procedia, 2009
This paper investigates the role of CO 2 capture and storage (CCS) technologies as part of a portfolio for reducing CO 2 emissions from the European electricity supply system until the year 2050. The analysis is carried out with a techno-economic model (minimizing the system cost) including a detailed description of the present stationary European electricity generation system (power plants) and potential CO 2 storage sites as obtained from the Chalmers Energy Infrastructure Database. Since the ability of different EU Member States and regions to facilitate and to benefit from CCS will most likely depend on local conditions in terms of current energy mix, fuel supply chains and distance to suitable storage locations, special emphasize is put on analyzing turn-over in capital stock of the existing power plant infrastructure, timing of investments and the infrastructural implications of large scale introduction of CCS on a regional perspective. The paper discusses the role of and requirements on CCS for meeting strict emission targets of 85% reduction while having a continued growth in electricity demand (according to EU projections). The results show that it is possible to meet an 85% CO 2 reduction target by 2050, but this will require large contribution from CCS. As expected, regions which are currently high in carbon intensity and which are located nearby suitable storage sites will benefit mostly from CCS as an option. With the assumption that CCS will be commercially available in 2020 the model results give a steep ramp-up in the use of CCS post 2020 which imposes challenges for timely investments in corresponding CCS infrastructure.
Prospects for CCS in the EU Energy Roadmap to 2050
Energy Procedia, 2013
The aim of this paper is to estimate the prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the European electricity supply system taking into account possible forthcoming policy based on the recent EU Energy Roadmap communication, which suggests a 93 to 99% reduction in d d CO 2 emissions relative 1990 levels from the electricity sector by the year 2050. Furthermore, the effect of whether or not onshore storage will be accepted is investigated. The work is based on techno-economic modeling of the European electricity generation sector under different assumptions (scenarios) of the future with respect to electricity demand and fuel prices. The results indicate that the contribution from CCS on a member state level depends on local conditions, e.g., access to local fuels like lignite, and whether or not onshore storage will be allowed. Excluding onshore storage in aquifers, the modeling results give that CCS is centralized around the North Sea. Natural gas fired conventional power plants is likely to be a serious competitor to coal CCS in the short to medium term providing large emission reduction opportunities by fuel shifting from existing coal power plants to new high efficient gas fired combined cycles. Such development can be a barrier for early deployment of CCS, and hence, result in a delay in commercialization of CCS. The scenarios presented in the Energy Roadmap prescribe power systems almost without net CO 2 emissions by 2050, which implies that CCS technologies by the year 2050 must be of a zero-emission type. The modeling presented here indicates in general a large increase in technologies with low CO 2 emissions, renewables as well as a significant contribution from CCS technologies, where CCS in the investigated scenarios have the potential to contribute as much as 25-35% of total electricity generation at around year 2050.
CO2 Intensities and Primary Energy Factors in the Future European Electricity System
Energies
The European Union strives for sharp reductions in both CO2 emissions as well as primary energy use. Electricity consuming technologies are becoming increasingly important in this context, due to the ongoing electrification of transport and heating services. To correctly evaluate these technologies, conversion factors are needed—namely CO2 intensities and primary energy factors (PEFs). However, this evaluation is hindered by the unavailability of a high-quality database of conversion factor values. Ideally, such a database has a broad geographical scope, a high temporal resolution and considers cross-country exchanges of electricity as well as future evolutions in the electricity mix. In this paper, a state-of-the-art unit commitment economic dispatch model of the European electricity system is developed and a flow-tracing technique is innovatively applied to future scenarios (2025–2040)—to generate such a database and make it publicly available. Important dynamics are revealed, inc...
The European Energy System and the CO2 Emissions Mitigation Policies up to 2050
2007
Patrick Criqui: Head of Laboratoire d’Economie de la production et de l’Integration Internationale – Departement Energie et Politiques de l’Environnement, Grenoble, LEPII EPE UPMF BP 47 38040 Grenoble cedex 9, France, Tel (dir) 33(0)456528573, Tel (stdd) 33(0)456528570, Fax 33(0)456528571, e-mail: patrick.criqui@upmf-grenoble.fr Silvana Mima: Researcher at LEPII-EPEBP 47 38040 Grenoble cedex 9, France, Tel : +33(0)456528589, e-mail: Silvana.MIMA@upmf-grenoble.fr Alban Kitous Energy modelling expert at ENERDATA, ENERDATA, 2 Avenue de Vignate, 38610 Gieres, France, Tel : 33(0)476422546, Fax : 33(0)476 516145, e-mail: Alban.Kitous@enerdata.fr
CCS in the European Energy Transition to Climate Neutrality
SINTEF Academic Press eBooks, 2021
The transition of the European energy system to reach climate neutrality by 2050 will require a development and deployment of technologies capable of decarbonizing the energy system in an unprecedented scale. Increased sector integration through electrification and system-wide application of hydrogen necessitates the coherent consideration of all energy sectors for transition planning and facilitation through an improved policy framework. The Hydrogen for Europe study has applied energy system models to analyse the potential role of hydrogen in all sectors, and in coexistence with electricity and other energy carriers. The current work focuses on the role of CCS as it emerged from this analysis, and how limitations in deployment rate of CCS impacts the energy transition. It was shown that limits on both the annual CO2 injection rate and minimum usage of renewable energy significantly affects the chosen route for hydrogen production.
Energy Policy, 2017
In March 2015 the European Union (EU) submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) in view of the Paris Conference of Parties (COP21). The binding target of lowering domestic greenhouse gases emissions by at least 40% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, coupled with long-term decarbonisation goals, will have profound energy system, macroeconomic and policy implications. EU targets are qualitatively discussed and quantitatively assessed with the simulation of a Reference and an alternative decarbonisation scenario to 2050. Simulations are carried out with the technology-rich PRIMES energy-system model and the GEM-E3 Computable General Equilibrium model. Restructuring of the EU energy system induces changes in the energy mix and production with small effects on the EU GDP, 0.4% in 2030 and 1% in 2050 compared to the Reference scenario. Energy efficiency improvements, increasing penetration of renewables, fuel switching towards natural gas, and technical progress in process related to emissions abatement are identified as essential options to the EU INDC implementation. The electrification of final energy demand, particularly transport electrification, complemented with decarbonised power supply is found to play a critical role in the successful transition towards a low-carbon economy by 2050.
The Future of European Electricity: Choices before 2020. CEPS Policy Brief No. 164, 8 July 2008
2008
This paper presents ongoing research being carried out for the EU-funded ADAM project (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Supporting European Climate Policy). Funded by the European Commission and coordinated by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in the UK, ADAM is an integrated research project running from 2006 to 2009 that will lead to a better understanding of the trade-offs and conflicts that exist between adaptation and mitigation policies. ADAM will support EU policy development in the follow-on stage of the Kyoto Protocol and will inform the emergence of new adaptation strategies for Europe. CEPS is one of 26 participating research institutes in the project (see http://www.adamproject.eu/). CEPS Policy Briefs present concise, policy-oriented analyses of topical issues in European affairs, with the aim of interjecting the views of CEPS researchers and associates into the policy-making process in a timely fashion. Unless otherwise indicated, the views expressed are attributable only to the authors in a personal capacity and not to any institution with which they are associated.