Modeling, Control, and Prediction of the Spread of COVID-19 Using Compartmental, Logistic, and Gauss Models: A Case Study in Iraq and Egypt (original) (raw)
In this paper, we study and investigate the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Iraq and Egypt by using compartmental, logistic regression, and Gaussian models. We developed a generalized SEIR model for the spread of COVID-19, taking into account mildly and symptomatically infected individuals. The logistic and Gaussian models were utilized to forecast and predict the numbers of confirmed cases in both countries. We estimated the parameters that best fit the incidence data. The results provide discouraging forecasts for Iraq from 22 February to 8 October 2020 and for Egypt from 15 February to 8 October 2020. To provide a forecast of the spread of COVID-19 in Iraq, we present various simulation scenarios for the expected peak and its timing using Gaussian and logistic regression models, where the predicted cases showed a reasonable agreement with the officially reported cases. We apply our compartmental model with a time-periodic transmission rate to predict the poss...
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