Differences in dynamic response of California Current salmon species to changes in ocean conditions (original) (raw)
Related papers
The effects of spawning age distribution on salmon persistence in fluctuating environments
Journal of Animal Ecology, 2003
1. Understanding the role endogenous vs. exogenous forces play in determining the dynamics and abundance of natural populations has important implications for their conservation. 2. Changes in environmental conditions often have different effects on closely related species. For instance, recent studies show that a physical shift in ocean conditions in the mid-1970s in the California current have reduced coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutsch) populations, but not chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha). 3. An important question is whether this pattern is due to differences in the ability of coho and chinook salmon to respond to changing ocean conditions or to differences in their life-history traits. 4. We analysed a series of population models to test whether observed abundance patterns of coho and chinook salmon could be explained by one of the major differences in their life history, the spawning age distribution; in the California current, female coho salmon are considered to be obligate semelparous, spawning at age 3, while chinook salmon are considered indeterminate semelparous, with populations spawning over a range of ages. 5. Results from a deterministic model indicate that the sensitivity of the population growth rate to changes in ocean survival depends little on the spawning age structure, especially when the growth rate is small (λ ≈ 1). 6. Analysis of linear and non-linear stochastic models indicate that the probability of persistence increases with the width of the spawning age distribution, as the fraction of adults spawning at age 3 decreases from 100% to 95%. Further increases in the spawning age distribution have negligible affects on persistence. 7. Because coho salmon are not absolutely obligate semelparous (e.g. as many as 25% of males can spawn precociously at age 2 and their effect on annual reproduction is unknown), this range of sensitivity does not provide a firm basis for assuming that the observed abundance patterns of coho and chinook is due to differences in their spawning age distribution. 8. While other life-history differences could play a role, we recommend that ongoing field studies focus on the different effects changing ocean conditions have on the survival of individual salmon species.
Nonstationary patterns in demographic traits covary with Chinook salmon marine distributions
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
The abundance of many Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) stocks has declined despite reductions in harvest. We used state-space models parameterized with data from 57 Chinook salmon indicator stocks, ranging from coastal Oregon to southeast Alaska, to quantify long-term (since 1972 release year) changes in juvenile marine survival rate and mean age-at-maturity, as well as identify stock groupings with coherent dynamics. We found that juvenile marine distribution—rather than freshwater life history, run timing, or adult marine distribution—was the best predictor of trends in both survival and age. Only subyearling stocks that enter the Strait of Georgia showed evidence of transitioning to a low juvenile survival period, other groupings exhibited low and stable or cyclical patterns in survival. Conversely, declines in mean age-at-maturity were widespread and do not appear to have stabilized, suggesting that future declines in Chinook salmon population productivity may be influ...
Demographic changes in Chinook salmon across the Northeast Pacific Ocean
Fish and Fisheries
Populations respond to a variety of natural and anthropogenic factors that alter their dynamics and demography. The age-structure and sizestructure of populations are responsive to environmental conditions, harvesting by humans, fluctuations in population density, diseases and species interactions such as predation, via changes in individual growth and size-dependent mortality. Intense harvesting can lead to agetruncated or juvenescent populations and thus reduced average sizes
Conservation …, 2006
The viability of populations is influenced by driving forces such as density dependence and climate variability, but most population viability analyses (PVAs) ignore these factors because of data limitations. Additionally, simplified PVAs produce limited measures of population viability such as annual population growth rate ( λ) or extinction risk. Here we developed a "mechanistic" PVA of threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in which, based on 40 years of detailed data, we related freshwater recruitment of juveniles to density of spawners, and third-year survival in the ocean to monthly indices of broad-scale ocean and climate conditions. Including climate variability in the model produced important effects: estimated population viability was very sensitive to assumptions of future climate conditions and the autocorrelation contained in the climate signal increased mean population abundance while increasing probability of quasi extinction. Because of the presence of density dependence in the model, however, we could not distinguish among alternative climate scenarios through mean λ values, emphasizing the importance of considering multiple measures to elucidate population viability. Our sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the importance of particular parameters varied across models and depended on which viability measure was the response variable. The density-dependent parameter associated with freshwater recruitment was consistently the most important, regardless of viability measure, suggesting that increasing juvenile carrying capacity is important for recovery.
Fisheries Oceanography, 2013
Pacific Northwest Chinook, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, have exhibited a high degree of variability in smoltto-adult survival over the past three decades. This variability is summarized for 22 Pacific Northwest stocks and analyzed using generalized linear modeling techniques. Results indicate that survival can be grouped into eight distinct regional clusters: (1) Alaska, Northern BC and North Georgia Strait; (2) Georgia Strait; (3) Lower Fraser River and West Coast Vancouver Island; (4) Puget Sound and Hood Canal; (5) Lower Columbia Tules; (6) Columbia Upriver Brights, Willamette and Cowlitz; (7) Oregon and Washington Coastal; and (8) Klamath River and Columbia River Summers. Further analysis for stocks within each of the eight regions indicates that local ocean conditions following the outmigration of smolts from freshwater to marine areas had a significant effect on survival for the majority of the stock groups analyzed. Our analyses of the data indicate that Pacific Northwest Chinook survival covaries on a spatial scale of 350-450 km. Lagged time series models are presented that link large-scale tropical Pacific conditions, intermediate-basin scale northeastern Pacific conditions, and local sea surface temperatures to survival of Pacific Northwest stocks.
Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 2005
We tested the hypothesis that survival rates from spawners to recruits in Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. are primarily related to coastal ocean conditions during migration to the sea and soon after. We correlated measures of survival rate in units of log e (recruits/spawner) for 110 stocks of pink salmon O. gorbuscha, chum salmon O. keta, and sockeye salmon O. nerka with regional-scale indices of coastal sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and upwelling as well as with a large-scale index of ocean climate. We examined correlations by month and at multiple lags spanning the periods of spawning, freshwater residence, and early ocean residence of salmon. Survival rates of all three salmon species were related to ocean temperatures just prior to, during, and after out-migration, which are indicative of the early marine conditions experienced by juvenile salmon. This is consistent with the hypothesis that the early marine period is critical to the survival of juvenile salmon. However, survival rates of sockeye salmon were most strongly correlated with coastal sea surface temperature during freshwater residency (i.e., the winter and spring prior to out-migration). Survival rates of pink salmon were also related to sea surface salinity conditions prior to out-migration. There was no evidence for any relationship between the survival rates of salmon and coastal upwelling conditions. As in previous studies, we found that correlations between the survival rates of pink or sockeye salmon in Alaska and sea surface temperature have opposite signs from correlations for stocks in British Columbia and Washington at most lags and at both regional and large (basinwide) spatial scales. In general, however, the measures of coastal ocean conditions that we examined explain a relatively small proportion of the environmentally induced variability in salmon survival rates.
Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at sea, and climate, 1955–2002
Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 2007
We tested the hypothesis that increased growth of salmon during early marine life contributed to greater survival and abundance of salmon following the 1976/1977 climate regime shift and that this, in turn, led to density-dependent reductions in growth during late marine stages. Annual measurements of Bristol Bay (Bering Sea) and Chignik (Gulf of Alaska) sockeye salmon scale growth from 1955 to 2002 were used as indices of body growth. During the first and second years at sea, growth of both stocks tended to be higher after the 1976-1977 climate shift, whereas growth during the third year and homeward migration was often below average. Multiple regression models indicated that return per spawner of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and adult abundance of western and central Alaska sockeye salmon were positively correlated with growth during the first 2 years at sea and negatively correlated with growth during later life stages. After accounting for competition between Bristol Bay sockeye and Asian pink salmon, age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon increased after the 1976-1977 regime shift, then decreased after the 1989 climate shift. Late marine growth and age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon was exceptionally low after 1989, possibly reducing their reproductive potential. These findings support the hypothesis that greater marine growth during the first 2 years at sea contributed to greater salmon survival and abundance, which in turn led to density-dependent growth during later life stages when size-related mortality was likely lower. Our findings provide new evidence supporting the importance of bottom-up control in marine ecosystems and highlight the complex dynamics of species interactions that continually change as salmon grow and mature in the ocean. r
Ecology and Evolution
Wild Atlantic salmon populations have declined in many regions and are affected by diverse natural and anthropogenic factors. To facilitate management guidelines, precise knowledge of mechanisms driving population changes in demographics and life history traits is needed. Our analyses were conducted on (a) age and growth data from scales of salmon caught by angling in the river Etneelva, Norway, covering smolt year classes from 1980 to 2018, (b) extensive sampling of the whole spawning run in the fish trap from 2013 onwards, and (c) time series of sea surface temperature, zooplankton biomass, and salmon lice infestation intensity. Marine growth during the first year at sea displayed a distinct stepwise decline across the four decades. Simultaneously, the population shifted from predominantly 1SW to 2SW salmon, and the proportion of repeat spawners increased from 3 to 7%. The latter observation is most evident in females and likely due to decreased marine exploitation. Female repeat ...
Non-stationary effects of growth on the survival of North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)
Ices Journal of Marine Science, 2021
The productivity of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) has declined markedly since the s, in part because of changing ocean conditions, but mechanisms driving this decline remain unclear. Previous research has suggested differential recruitment dynamics between the continental stock groups, with post-smolt growth influencing the survival of populations in Europe, but not North America. We used a large, representative archive of North American, multi sea-winter salmon scales to reconstruct long-term changes in growth between and . We then modeled relationships between annual growth indices, estimates of maturation rates, and post-smolt survival, while allowing for the possibility of nonstationary dynamics. We found that marine growth of MSW salmon has changed over the past years, generally increasing despite declining survival. However, we found strong evidence of a non-stationary influence of post-smolt growth on survival. Prior to a period of rapid change in the ocean environment during the late s, post-smolt growth was positively related with survival, similar to the pattern observed in European populations. These findings suggest that the mechanisms determining marine survival of North American and European salmon populations may have diverged around . More generally, our results highlight the importance of considering non-stationary dynamics when evaluating linkages between the environment, growth, and survival of Atlantic salmon.
Evidence That Reduced Early Marine Growth is Associated with Lower Marine Survival of Coho Salmon
Transactions of The American Fisheries Society, 2004
Coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch from the Strait of Georgia were used to test the hypothesis that slower growing fish in their first ocean year had lower survival over the late fall and winter than faster growing fish. The Strait of Georgia provided a suitable area for this study because it is a semi-enclosed rearing area for juvenile Pacific salmon that is distinct from the open marine rearing areas off the west coast. Coho salmon that survived the winter had significantly larger spacing between circuli on scales, indicating that brood year strength is related to growth in the first marine year. Other studies have shown that smaller fish of a cohort are less able to survive periods of energy deficit than larger fish. Thus, size-related mortality in the first marine fall and winter may be an important determinant of brood year strength of some coho salmon stocks and stocks of other species of Pacific salmon.