The Comovement of Exchange Rates and Stock Markets in Central and Eastern Europe (original) (raw)

Dynamic Nexus between Exchange Rate and Stock Prices in the Major East European Economies

Prague Economic Papers, 2016

This paper investigates the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) between stock returns and exchange rate in four East European emerging markets. Due to persistent long memory and the presence of the asymmetric effect in all asset markets we applied DCC-FIAPARCH model. The estimated negative DCC parameters in all scrutinized countries confirmed that portfoliobalanced theory has predominance in the short run in all selected economies. DCC parameters revealed significant time-varying behaviour, especially during the major crisis periods. By embedding dummy variables in the variance equations, we came to the conclusion that global shocks affect the volatility of DCCs. Particularly, it happened during the Global Financial Crisis and European sovereign debt crisis, but the effects were not linearly equal in all countries. Complementary rolling analysis unveils how conditional volatilities of analysed assets influence DCC. The results suggested that exchange rate conditional volatility ha...

An Empirical Test on Linkage Between Foreign Exchange Market and Stock Market: Evidence from Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland and Romania

The paper aims to examine the causal relationship between the stock prices and exchange rates in Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland and Romania. The investigation employs Granger's Causality test and Vector Auto Regression technique on monthly stock return and the foreign exchange rate for the period October 31, 2008 to September 18, 2017. The major findings of the study that there is no Granger's causality between the exchange rate return and stock return in these countries. The study also uses Vector Auto Regression modeling to confirm that though stock return and exchange rate are related to each other but any consistent relationship does not exist between them. Our results have provided beneficial information for investors, government policies and researchers.

On the dynamic link between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from Romania

2007

The theoretical linkages between exchange rates and stock prices are microeconomic as well as macroeconomic in nature and may be observed on the short-and long-run. The paper examines the interactions between the exchange rates and stock prices in Romania, after 1997, taking into account the change in the monetary regime occurred in 2005 -the shift towards inflation targeting. The analysis uses bivariate cointegration and Granger causality tests, applied on daily and monthly exchange rates and stock prices data collected over the 1999 to 2007 period. Three types of exchange rates are used: the nominal effective exchange rates of the Romanian leu, the bilateral nominal exchange rates of the leu against the US dollar and the euro, and the real effective exchange rates of the leu. In terms of stock prices, the BET and BET-C indices of the Bucharest Stock Exchange are used, denominated in the local currency.

Joint dynamics of foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging Europe

Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2012

This paper proposes an ideal specification for studying joint dynamics of emerging stock and foreign exchange markets, and applies it on European emerging markets where this interaction is of particular significance due to large external deficits. Results show that global developed and emerging stock market returns account for a large proportion of the (permanent) comovement between the stock index and currency value. The residual interaction after controlling for global indexes is small. The sign of the currency-stock market relationship is driven by dependence on foreign capital (predominantly positive for countries which are net receivers of foreign portfolio capital) and depth of the local stock market. Bank of Russia's intensive involvement in the currency market delays Ruble's response to global information. Emerging European currencies predict reversals in global equity indexes several months ahead.

The Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Four Transition Economies

2007

This article examines the dynamic relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in four Easter European markets, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, using stock price and exchange rate data from these countries, as well as stock prices from the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom. The data set consists of daily data over a 7 year period from 1999 to 2006. Both the long-run and the short-run association between these variables are analyzed.

The Dynamic Linkages Between Stock Market and Foreign Exchange Market: Evidence from an Emerging Market

International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2020

The paper investigates the dynamic linkages between exchange rate (against US dollar) and the stock market (local currency) of Tunisia from January 2004 to April 2017. In particular, the paper tries to answer if there are any correlations between these variables and how they move in high volatile periods. By using a VEC model and applying the techniques of Granger Causality test, we conclude the existence of a unidirectional relationship between the two variables (from stock prices to exchange rate). Due to persistent long memory and the presence of the asymmetric effect in both markets, we estimate the dynamic correlations between these variables using DCC-FIAPARCH model. Results reveal that volatility shocks create abrupt changes in the dynamic correlations. However, this effect is only short term and do not sustain between consecutive high volatility regimes. Thus, policymakers and investors do not need to be concerned about long run contagion effects. Accordingly, financial managers can obtain more insights in the management of their international portfolio affected by these two variables. This should be particularly important to domestic as well as international investors for hedging and diversifying their portfolio mainly by predicting the path of the exchange rate.

The association between stock market and exchange rates for advanced and emerging markets – A case study of the Swiss and Polish economies

This paper investigates the differences in structures of causal relationships between stock and currency markets for advanced and emerging economies on the example of Switzerland and Poland. The bootstrap-based linear causality analysis as well as nonlinear causality tests were conducted for both considered countries. Results of linear causality analysis indicated that for Swiss economy the portfolio approach seems to be the right pattern while for Poland the traditional and portfolio approaches were found to be appropriate. On the other hand the results of nonlinear analysis provided solid basis to claim that for Switzerland both approaches are acceptable while for Poland nonlinear causality was not reported in any direction. Results of nonlinear causality test were generally unchanged after GARCH(1,1) filtration. The existence of strong causal links from stock to currency markets of both economies seems to have a practical application for investors helping to hedge their portfolios against currency shocks.

The Dynamic Linkages between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: Evidence from Emerging Markets

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for nine emerging markets using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and causality models from January 1998 to May 2014. The sample period subdivided in to two episodes to take in to account the interaction of these series during the tranquil and crisis periods. The findings indicates that the comovement between exchange rates and stock prices become stronger during the crises time, and the direction of causality originates from stock prices to exchange rates during the tranquil period; and from exchange rates to stock prices during crisis once. The result shows certain sensitivity to the level of stability in financial markets. JEL classification numbers: C22, F31, G15

Impact of the Global Crisis on the Financial Linkages between the Stock Market and the Foreign Exchange Market from Romania

2009

This paper explores the financial linkages between the Romanian stock market and the exchange market in the context of the global crisis. We investigate such relations for two periods of time: one from January 2006 to February 2008, when the Romanian financial markets were quite tranquil and the other from March 2008 to September 2009, while the global crisis effects were considerable for Romania. For the first period of time we could not prove significant relations between the foreign exchange market and the stock market. Instead, for the second period of time we found a unidirectional causality from the exchange rates to the stock prices.