A Comparison of ECMWF and GFS Initializations for the Development of Hurricane Helene 2006 as Part of NAMMA 2006 (original) (raw)

Abstract

Each year, about 50 African Easterly Waves (AEWs) move off the West African coast and traverse the tropical Atlantic. Of these 50 AEWs, ten to fifteen may develop into tropical storms and half of that number may develop into hurricanes. With an increase in the number and intensity of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic over the past few years, questions have arisen on the effects of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and its interaction with tropical cyclogenesis. Observations of the interaction between developing tropical cyclones and the SAL have revealed an environment that is hostile to maintaining deep convection or organization due to a decrease in moisture content, and an overabundance of cloud condensation nuclei. When tropical cyclones move away from the SAL, rapid intensification has been noted. Numerical simulations using the WRF in concert with NAMMA data are being conducted to better understand the interaction of AEWs with the SAL For these studies to be useful, a measure of the...

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