Ambient Air Pollution Exposure Estimation for the Global Burden of Disease 2013 (original) (raw)
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Ambient air pollution is associated with numerous adverse health impacts. Previous assessments of global attributable disease burden have been limited to urban areas or by coarse spatial resolution of concentration estimates. Recent developments in remote sensing, global chemicaltransport models, and improvements in coverage of surface measurements facilitate virtually complete spatially resolved global air pollutant concentration estimates. We combined these data to generate global estimates of long-term average ambient concentrations of fine particles (PM 2.5 ) and ozone at 0.1°× 0.1°spatial resolution for 1990 and 2005. In 2005, 89% of the world's population lived in areas where the World Health Organization Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m 3 PM 2.5 (annual average) was exceeded. Globally, 32% of the population lived in areas exceeding the WHO Level 1 Interim Target of 35 μg/m 3 , driven by high proportions in East (76%) and South (26%) Asia. The highest seasonal ozone levels were found in North and Latin America, Europe, South and East Asia, and parts of Africa. Between 1990 and 2005 a 6% increase in global population-weighted PM 2.5 and a 1% decrease in global populationweighted ozone concentrations was apparent, highlighted by increased concentrations in East, South, and Southeast Asia and decreases in North America and Europe. Combined with spatially resolved population distributions, these estimates expand the evaluation of the global health burden associated with outdoor air pollution.
Global Estimates and Long-Term Trends of Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations (19982018)
Exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) is a leading risk factor for mortality. We develop global estimates of annual PM 2.5 concentrations and trends for 1998−2018 using advances in satellite observations, chemical transport modeling, and ground-based monitoring. Aerosol optical depths (AODs) from advanced satellite products including finer resolution, increased global coverage, and improved long-term stability are combined and related to surface PM 2.5 concentrations using geophysical relationships between surface PM 2.5 and AOD simulated by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model with updated algorithms. The resultant annual mean geophysical PM 2.5 estimates are highly consistent with globally distributed ground monitors (R 2 = 0.81; slope = 0.90). Geographically weighted regression is applied to the geophysical PM 2.5 estimates to predict and account for the residual bias with PM 2.5 monitors, yielding even higher cross validated agreement (R 2 = 0.90−0.92; slope = 0.90−0.97) with ground monitors and improved agreement compared to all earlier global estimates. The consistent long-term satellite AOD and simulation enable trend assessment over a 21 year period, identifying significant trends for eastern North America (−0.28 ± 0.03 μg/m 3 /yr), Europe (−0.15 ± 0.03 μg/m 3 /yr), India (1.13 ± 0.15 μg/m 3 /yr), and globally (0.04 ± 0.02 μg/m 3 /yr). The positive trend (2.44 ± 0.44 μg/m 3 /yr) for India over 2005−2013 and the negative trend (−3.37 ± 0.38 μg/m 3 /yr) for China over 2011−2018 are remarkable, with implications for the health of billions of people.
Estimates of global mortality attributable to particulate air pollution using satellite imagery
Background: Epidemiological studies of the health effects of air pollution have traditionally relied upon ground-monitoring stations to measure ambient concentrations. Satellite derived air pollution measures offer the advantage of providing global coverage. Objective: To undertake a global assessment of mortality associated with long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution using remote sensing data. Methods: Global PM 2.5 exposure levels were derived from the MODIS and MISR satellite instruments. Relative risks and attributable fractions of mortality were modeled using previously developed concentration-response functions for the association between PM 2.5 and mortality. Results: The global fraction of adult mortality attributable to the anthropogenic component of PM 2.5 (95% CI) was 8.0% (5.3-10.5) for cardiopulmonary disease, 12.8% (5.9-18.5) for lung cancer, and 9.4% (6.6-11.8) for ischemic heart disease. Conclusion: This study demonstrates the feasibility of using satellite derived pollution concentrations in assessing the population health impacts of air pollution at the global scale. This approach leads to global estimates of mortality attributable to PM 2.5 that are greater than those based on fixed site ground-level measures of urban PM 2.5 , but more similar to estimates based on global chemical transport model simulations of anthropogenic PM 2.5 .
Impacts of intercontinental transport of anthropogenic fine particulate matter on human mortality
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health, 2014
Fine particulate matter with diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM 2.5 ) is associated with premature mortality and can travel long distances, impacting air quality and health on intercontinental scales. We estimate the mortality impacts of 20 % anthropogenic primary PM 2.5 and PM 2.5 precursor emission reductions in each of four major industrial regions (North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia) using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution and epidemiologically-derived concentrationresponse functions. We estimate that while 93-97 % of avoided deaths from reducing emissions in all four regions occur within the source region, 3-7 % (11,500; 95 % confidence interval, 8,800-14,200) occur outside the source region Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (from concentrations transported between continents. Approximately 17 and 13 % of global deaths avoided by reducing North America and Europe emissions occur extraregionally, owing to large downwind populations, compared with 4 and 2 % for South and East Asia. The coarse resolution global models used here may underestimate intraregional health benefits occurring on local scales, affecting these relative contributions of extraregional versus intraregional health benefits. Compared with a previous study of 20 % ozone precursor emission reductions, we find that despite greater transport efficiency for ozone, absolute mortality impacts of intercontinental PM 2.5 transport are comparable or greater for neighboring source-receptor pairs, due to the stronger effect of PM 2.5 on mortality. However, uncertainties in modeling and concentration-response relationships are large for both estimates.
Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 2015
Ground-based observations have insufficient spatial coverage to assess long-term human exposure to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) at the global scale. Satellite remote sensing offers a promising approach to provide information on both short-and long-term exposure to PM 2.5 at local-toglobal scales, but there are limitations and outstanding questions about the accuracy and precision with which groundlevel aerosol mass concentrations can be inferred from satellite remote sensing alone. A key source of uncertainty is the global distribution of the relationship between annual average PM 2.5 and discontinuous satellite observations of columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD). We have initiated a global network of ground-level monitoring stations designed to evaluate and enhance satellite remote sensing estimates for application in health-effects research and risk assessment. This Surface PARTiculate mAtter Network (SPARTAN) includes a global federation of ground-level monitors of hourly PM 2.5 situated primarily in highly populated regions and collocated with existing ground-based sun photometers that measure AOD. The instruments, a three-wavelength nephelometer and impaction filter sampler for both PM 2.5 and PM 10 , are highly autonomous. Hourly PM 2.5 concentrations are inferred from the combination of weighed filters and nephelometer data. Data from existing networks were used to develop and evaluate network sampling characteristics. SPARTAN filters are analyzed for mass, black carbon, watersoluble ions, and metals. These measurements provide, in a variety of regions around the world, the key data required to evaluate and enhance satellite-based PM 2.5 estimates used for assessing the health effects of aerosols. Mean PM 2.5 concentrations across sites vary by more than 1 order of magnitude. Our initial measurements indicate that the ratio of AOD to ground-level PM 2.5 is driven temporally and spatially by the vertical profile in aerosol scattering. Spatially this ratio is also strongly influenced by the mass scattering efficiency.
Estimating the National Public Health Burden Associated with Exposure to Ambient PM2.5 and Ozone
Risk Analysis, 2011
Ground-level ozone (O 3 ) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) are associated with increased risk of mortality. We quantify the burden of modeled 2005 concentrations of O 3 and PM 2.5 on health in the United States. We use the photochemical Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model in conjunction with ambient monitored data to create fused surfaces of summer season average 8-hour ozone and annual mean PM 2.5 levels at a 12 km grid resolution across the continental United States. Employing spatially resolved demographic and concentration data, we assess the spatial and age distribution of air-pollution-related mortality and morbidity. For both PM 2.5 and O 3 we also estimate: the percentage of total deaths due to each pollutant; the reduction in life years and life expectancy; and the deaths avoided according to hypothetical air quality improvements. Using PM 2.5 and O 3 mortality risk coefficients drawn from the long-term American Cancer Society (ACS) cohort study and National Mortality and Morbidity Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS), respectively, we estimate 130,000 PM 2.5 -related deaths and 4,700 ozone-related deaths to result from 2005 air quality levels. Among populations aged 65-99, we estimate nearly 1.1 million life years lost from PM 2.5 exposure and approximately 36,000 life years lost from ozone exposure. Among the 10 most populous counties, the percentage of deaths attributable to PM 2.5 and ozone ranges from 3.5% in San Jose to 10% in Los Angeles. These results show that despite significant improvements in air quality in recent decades, recent levels of PM 2.5 and ozone still pose a nontrivial risk to public health.
A Satellite-Based Multi-Pollutant Index of Global Air Quality
Environmental Science & Technology, 2012
Air pollution is a major health hazard that is responsible for millions of annual excess deaths worldwide. Simple indicators are useful for comparative studies and to assess trends over time. The development of global indicators has been impeded by the lack of ground-based observations in vast regions of the world. Recognition is growing of the need for a multipollutant approach to air quality to better represent human exposure. Here we introduce the prospect of a multipollutant air quality indicator based on observations from satellite remote sensing.
Environmental Modeling and Methods for Estimation of the Global Health Impacts of Air Pollution
Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 2012
Air pollution is increasingly recognized as a significant contributor to global health outcomes. A methodological framework for evaluating the global health-related outcomes of outdoor and indoor (household) air pollution is presented and validated for the year 2005. Ambient concentrations of PM2.5 are estimated with a combination of energy and atmospheric models, with detailed representation of urban and rural spatial exposures. Populations dependent on solid fuels are established with household survey data. Health impacts for outdoor and household air pollution are independently calculated using the fractions of disease that can be attributed to ambient air pollution exposure and solid fuel use. Estimated ambient pollution concentrations indicate that more than 80% of the population exceeds the WHO Air Quality Guidelines in 2005. In addition, 3.26 billion people were found to use solid fuel for cooking in three regions of Sub Saharan Africa, South Asia and Pacific Asia in 2005. Outdoor air pollution results in 2.7 million deaths or 23 million disability adjusted life years (DALYs) while household air pollution from solid fuel use and related indoor smoke results in 2.1 million deaths or 41.6 million DALYs. The higher morbidity from household air pollution can be attributed to children below the age of 5 in Sub Saharan Africa and South Asia. The burden of disease from air pollution is found to be significant, thus indicating the importance of policy interventions.