Soviet and Chinese Famines in Historical Perspective (original) (raw)

The 1947 Soviet famine and the

2016

This paper presents an analysis of the economics of the 1947 Soviet famine, using data from recently declassified archives. It is argued that the best estimate that can currently be given of the number of excess deaths is the range 1•0-1•5 million. The demographic loss was greater. During the famine, surplus stocks in the hands of the state seem to have been sufficient to have fed all those who died of starvation. The famine was a FAD 2 (preventable food availability decline) famine, which occurred because a drought caused a bad harvest and hence reduced food availability, but, had the priorities of the government been different, there might have been no famine (or a much smaller one) despite the drought. The selection of victims can be understood in terms of the entitlement approach.

A Demographic Framework for the 1932 1934 Famine in the Soviet Union

Research on the 1932-1934 famine in the Soviet Union (or Famine) has reached the point where some analytical and theoretical synthesis is needed. We present a framework that provides a structure for organizing demographic research of the Famine within a broader demographic-historical context. Elements of the framework are: (a) definitions of critical concepts (Famine, Holodomor, Famine losses); (b) population reconstruction methodology as a basis for estimating Famine losses; (c) a formal structure that facilitates comparative research of the Famine among different subpopulations; (d) elements of an integrated demographic-historical research strategy; (e) recommendations for quantification in historical research. The presentation of the framework is preceded by: (a) examples of the versatility of the population reconstruction methodology; (b) analysis of what is probably a unique characteristic of the Famine, i.e. the surge in rural mortality during the first half of 1933 in regions of Ukraine and Russia, resulting in about seventy to eighty per cent of all Famine losses concentrated in that period; (c) formulation of an analytical model of this surge as an example of an application of the framework. We show significant differences in the rural mortality surges between Ukraine and Russia, e.g.: (a) in two oblasts of Ukraine the number of losses in June 1933 is fourteen to fifteen times higher than in January of that year, compared to a maximum factor of eight in only one region of Russia; (b) the average number of daily losses at the peak of the Famine in Ukraine, June 1933, is 28,000, while the respective number in Russia is 12,000 in July 1933. Standardizing by population size, we have 12.4 daily losses per 1,000 population in Ukraine and 1.4 in Russia. Several examples illustrate the advantages of a collaborative demographic-historical research strategy.

Political Famines in the USSR and China: A Comparative Analysis

Journal of Cold War Studies, 2017

This article provides a comparative analysis of two of the twentieth century's largest political famines, which deeply influenced the history of the two largest Communist states, as well as-albeit indirectly-their posture and behavior in the international arena. 1 The time frame is defined by Iosif Stalin's Great Turning Point (GTP) and Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward (GLF) and the crises they caused, that is, 1928-1934 in the Soviet Union and 1958-1962 in China. However, I have extended the coverage backward to account for what I term the "hidden" five-year plan launched in 1925, which led to the crisis of the New Economic Policy (NEP) in the Soviet Union, and the Socialist High Tide (SHT) and its failure in China (1955-1956). I have also extended the chronological horizon forward to include at least some of the long-term consequences of these avoidable tragedies, analyzing their impact on subsequent Soviet and Chinese history. 2 The article presents an in-depth analysis of the similarities and differences between these two events, offering sufficient detail about each famine to allow for meaningful comparisons. Because comparative studies of the two events are recent and few in number, my contribution is difficult to position among them. As usually happens when a new field is opened, all of the recent comparative studies are useful. 3 Readers interested in my view of the much wider,

Introduction to the Special Issue on the Soviet Famines of 1930-1933

Nationalities Papers, 2020

The 20th century has been a century of political famines, that is, famines directly-and at times willfully-caused by human policies, in war 1 and in peacetime. Scores of millions starved to death in times during which there was enough food to feed everyone and the means to transport it where needed. The conscious use of hunger to punish, repress, or eliminate specific groups was inaugurated by the German empire against the Herero and Nama in Namibia in 1904-1908, and reached its first acme in World War I with the Armenian genocide, in which starvation played an important role. However, the British strategy against the Central European empires and the German submarine war were also based on the strategy of starving the enemy into surrender. Hunger was used by the Bolsheviks to quell the great peasant insurrections of 1919-1921 (Vincent 1985; Shirinian 2017; Danilov and Shanin 1994, documents nos. 174 and 198). Political famines, including intentional, specifically targeted starvation, continued in the following decades, first reaching a peak in Europe with the Soviet famines examined in this issue, then during World War II, when they also affected Bengal or Vietnam, and in its aftermath. They culminated in the catastrophic famine ignited by Mao's Great Leap Forward (Dikötter 2011; Wemheuer 2014; Bianco 2014; Graziosi 2017b). The strangling of Biafra in 1968, the Khmer Rouge's use of hunger in Cambodia in the 1970s, and the famine caused by the Derg's policies in Ethiopia at the beginning of the following decade were other major instances of human-provoked mass starvation. After the 1990s, while not disappearing, the use of enforced starvation started to decrease both in number and intensity (

The long-term health and economic consequences of the 1959–1961 famine in China

Journal of Health Economics, 2007

This paper, using a difference-in-differences method, tries to quantify the long-term effects of China's 1959-1961 famine on the health and economic status of the survivors. We find that the great famine caused serious health and economic consequences for the survivors, especially for those in early childhood during the famine. Our estimates show that on average, in the absence of the famine, individuals of the 1959 birth cohort would have otherwise grown 3.03 cm taller in adulthood. The famine also greatly impacted the labor supply and earnings of the survivors with famine exposure during their early childhood.