Predictors of indoor absolute humidity and estimated effects on influenza virus survival in grade schools (original) (raw)
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Humidity as a non-pharmaceutical intervention for influenza A
Influenza is a global problem infecting 5-10 % of adults and 20-30 % of children annually. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are attractive approaches to complement vaccination in the prevention and reduction of influenza. Strong cyclical reduction of absolute humidity has been associated with influenza outbreaks in temperate climates. This study tested the hypothesis that raising absolute humidity above seasonal lows would impact influenza virus survival and transmission in a key source of influenza distribution, a community school. Air samples and objects handled by students (e.g. blocks and markers) were collected from preschool classrooms. All samples were processed and PCR used to determine the presence of influenza and its amount. Additionally samples were tested for their ability to infect cells in cultures. Deliberate classroom humidification (with commercial steam humidifiers) resulted in a significant reduction of the total number of influenza positive samples (air a...
Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology
BACKGROUND: Both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses show a strong seasonal spreading in temperate regions. Several studies indicated that changes in indoor humidity could be one of the key factors explaining this. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to quantify the association between relevant epidemiological metrics and humidity in both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 epidemic periods. METHODS: The atmospheric dew point temperature serves as a proxy for indoor relative humidity. This study considered the weekly mortality rate in the Netherlands between 1995 and 2019 to determine the correlation between the dew point and the spread of influenza. During influenza epidemic periods in the Netherlands, governmental restrictions were absent; therefore, there is no need to control this confounder. During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, governmental restrictions strongly varied over time. To control this effect, periods with a relatively constant governmental intervention level were selected to analyze the reproduction rate. We also examine SARS-CoV-2 deaths in the nursing home setting, where health policy and social factors were less variable. Viral transmissibility was measured by computing the ratio between the estimated daily number of infectious persons in the Netherlands and the lagged mortality figures in the nursing homes. RESULTS: For both influenza and SARS-CoV-2, a significant correlation was found between the dew point temperature and the aforementioned epidemiological metrics. The findings are consistent with the anticipated mechanisms related to droplet evaporation, stability of virus in the indoor environment, and impairment of the natural defenses of the respiratory tract in dry air. SIGNIFICANCE: This information is helpful to understand the seasonal pattern of respiratory viruses and motivate further study to what extent it is possible to alter the seasonal pattern by actively intervening in the adverse role of low humidity during fall and winter in temperate regions. IMPACT: A solid understanding and quantification of the role of humidity on the transmission of respiratory viruses is imperative for epidemiological modeling and the installation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The results of this study indicate that improving the indoor humidity by humidifiers could be a promising technology for reducing the spread of both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 during winter and fall in the temperate zone. The identification of this potential should be seen as a strong motivation to invest in further prospective testing of this non-pharmaceutical intervention.
Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental United States
PLoS Biology, 2010
Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent reanalysis of laboratory experiments indicates that absolute humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here, we extend these findings to the human population level, showing that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low absolute humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological model, in which observed absolute humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. The model results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by absolute humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. These findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that absolute humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions.
Absolute Humidity and Pandemic Versus Epidemic Influenza
American Journal of Epidemiology, 2011
Experimental and epidemiologic evidence indicates that variations of absolute humidity account for the onset and seasonal cycle of epidemic influenza in temperate regions. A role for absolute humidity in the transmission of pandemic influenza, such as 2009 A/H1N1, has yet to be demonstrated and, indeed, outbreaks of pandemic influenza during more humid spring, summer, and autumn months might appear to constitute evidence against an effect of humidity. However, here the authors show that variations of the basic and effective reproductive numbers for influenza, caused by seasonal changes in absolute humidity, are consistent with the general timing of pandemic influenza outbreaks observed for 2009 A/H1N1 in temperate regions, as well as wintertime transmission of epidemic influenza. Indeed, absolute humidity conditions correctly identify the region of the United States vulnerable to a third, wintertime wave of pandemic influenza. These findings suggest that the timing of pandemic influenza outbreaks is controlled by a combination of absolute humidity conditions, levels of susceptibility, and changes in population-mixing and contact rates. disease outbreaks; disease susceptibility; disease transmission, infectious; humidity; influenza, human Abbreviation: CDC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 2019
Influenza incidence and seasonality, along with virus survival and transmission, appear to depend at least partly on humidity, and recent studies have suggested that absolute humidity (AH) is more important than relative humidity (RH) in modulating observed patterns. In this perspective article, we re-evaluate studies of influenza virus survival in aerosols, transmission in animal models and influenza incidence to show that the combination of temperature and RH is equally valid as AH as a predictor. Collinearity must be considered, as higher levels of AH are only possible at higher temperatures, where it is well established that virus decay is more rapid. In studies of incidence that employ meteorological data, outdoor AH may be serving as a proxy for indoor RH in temperate regions during the wintertime heating season. Finally, we present a mechanistic explanation based on droplet evaporation and its impact on droplet physics and chemistry for why RH is more likely than AH to modula...
Journal of Respiratory Infections, 2017
Background: Transmissibility of several etiologies of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) may vary based on outdoor climate factors. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of outdoor temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity on the incidence of hospitalizations for lower respiratory tract infections due to influenza, rhinovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Methods: This was a secondary analysis of an ancillary study of the Community Acquired Pneumonia Organization (CAPO) database. Respiratory viruses were detected using the Luminex xTAG respiratory viral panel. Climate factors were obtained from the National Weather Service. Adjusted Poisson regression models with robust error variance were used to model the incidence of hospitalization with a LRTI due to: 1) influenza, 2) rhinovirus, and 3) RSV (A and/or B), separately. Results: A total of 467 hospitalized patients with LRTI were included in the study; 135 (29%) with influenza, 41 (9%) with rhinovirus, and 27 (6%) with RSV (20 RSV A, 7 RSV B). The average, minimum, and maximum absolute humidity and temperature variables were associated with hospitalization due to influenza LRTI, while the relative humidity variables were not. None of the climate variables were associated with hospitalization due to rhinovirus or RSV. Conclusions: This study suggests that outdoor absolute humidity and temperature are associated with hospitalizations due to influenza LRTIs, but not with LRTIs due to rhinovirus or RSV. Understanding factors contributing to the transmission of respiratory viruses may assist in the prediction of future outbreaks and facilitate the development of transmission prevention interventions.
The Effect of Humidity and Temperature on Indoor and Outdoor COVID-19 Infections
Advances in Meteorology
Environmental conditions and their association with COVID-19 have significantly attracted scientists’ attention. The current study links COVID-19 with climate indicators by comparing two configurations: indoor infections in a University of Duhok (UOD) building and outdoor infections within the boundaries of the Duhok Governorate (DG). The collected data included temperature and relative humidity (RH) and confirmed cases for indoor and outdoor configurations over 5 and 11 months, respectively. For the indoor infections, data were collected over the period of 5 weekdays, while for the outdoor infections, they were collected on the days when statistics were published. The prospective cross-section design was used for different statistical analyses. The overall indoor infections were very low, and the maximum values for RH and temperature were approximately <24% and <20°C, respectively; in the one-sample t-test, the results were significantly correlated ( p value <0.05) with th...
PLoS ONE, 2012
The substantial winter influenza peak in temperate climates has lead to the hypothesis that cold and/or dry air is a causal factor in influenza variability. We examined the relationship between cold and/or dry air and daily influenza and pneumonia mortality in the cold season in the New York metropolitan area from 1975-2002. We conducted a retrospective study relating daily pneumonia and influenza mortality for New York City and surroundings from 1975-2002 to daily air temperature, dew point temperature (a measure of atmospheric humidity), and daily air mass type. We identified high mortality days and periods and employed temporal smoothers and lags to account for the latency period and the time between infection and death. Unpaired t-tests were used to compare high mortality events to non-events and nonparametric bootstrapped regression analysis was used to examine the characteristics of longer mortality episodes. We found a statistically significant (p = 0.003) association between periods of low dew point temperature and above normal pneumonia and influenza mortality 17 days later. The duration (r = 20.61) and severity (r = 20.56) of high mortality episodes was inversely correlated with morning dew point temperature prior to and during the episodes. Weeks in which moist polar air masses were common (air masses characterized by low dew point temperatures) were likewise followed by above normal mortality 17 days later (p = 0.019). This research supports the contention that cold, dry air may be related to influenza mortality and suggests that warning systems could provide enough lead time to be effective in mitigating the effects.
Science, Art and Religion
B ackground: Indoor air quality (IAQ) in classrooms affects children's health and academic performance. The aim of this pilot study was to determine IAQ in elementary schools different in their internal and external characteristics, in settings of COVID-19 epidemics. Methods: IAQ parameters: fine particulate matter (PM 2,5) mass concentration, CO 2 concentration, temperature and relative humidity were measured in parallel in four elementary schools/classrooms during October (non-heating season) and four months (including holiday in January) of heating season. IAQ parameters were measured in settings of anti-epidemic restrictions (≤13 students in classroom, frequent ventilation). Results: During October, except in one school, PM 2,5 concentrations were below the upper recommended value (25μg/m³), but started rising in all schools in the heating season. The highest concentrations of PM 2,5 were registered in two schools with closed or shortly opened windows. CO 2 concentrations were mostly in the recommended range (up to 1000ppm) except in the school with constantly closed windows and in three schools in February when concentrations were higher. Except in one, the same school, and in January, both temperature and relative humidity were out of the recommended range (24,0-27,0°C in non-heating; 20,0-24,0°C in heating season; and 45-55%), with temperature mainly above and relative humidity mainly below it in three schools. The largest deviation in temperature and relative humidity were registered in urban schools. Registered differences may be explained by different internal and external characteristics.