Does Third-Party Enforcement or Domestic Institutions Promote Enduring Peace After Civil Wars? Policy Lessons From an Empirical Test (original) (raw)

2006, Foreign Policy Analysis

What causes peaceful resolution of civil wars to endure rather than to collapse into renewed fighting? Existing studies predict that third-party peace enforcement by the United Nations (UN) or domestic institutions such as democracy, parliamentary, and presidential institutions and the proportional representation (PR) electoral system promotes enduring peace in societies that have emerged from a civil war. However, extant empirical works test the effect of third-party enforcement but not the impact of domestic institutions on peace after civil wars. Hence, I test the impact of democracy, presidential, and parliamentary institutions, electoral systemsFPR and majoritarianFand third-party enforcement by the UN on the durability of peace after termination of civil wars. Results from a bootstrapped Weibull duration model show that democracy and the PR electoral system significantly reduces the likelihood that civil war may recur, but that third-party enforcement by the UN does not have a significant effect on the hazard rate of peace spells. A brief case study analysis of recent attempts to build democratic institutions in Cambodia and Kosovo by the international community also supports the claims posited in this article. The peace agreement signed by Mozambique's FRELMO party and the RENAMO rebel group in 1992 ended years of brutal fighting between these two parties and has helped to sustain peace over the last decade. In contrast, the 1993 Arusha peace accords signed by the Hutu-dominated government and the minority Tutsi group collapsed rapidly and was followed by a 100-day genocide that left 800,000 people dead (Sisk 2001). Although Mozambique and Rwanda share similar features, enduring peace in Mozambique has helped to promote economic growth in that country, while Rwanda remains impoverished. 1 What causes peace settlements or ''peace spells''Fthat is, the duration of peace after civil wars endFto endure in some cases (e.g., Mozambique), rather than to collapse into renewed fighting (e.g., Rwanda)? Analysts of civil war settlements have devoted significant attention to answering the above question. Identifying the appropriate policies and institutions that can enhance the security of minority groups in countries ravaged by civil war is of paramount importance given the current situation in Afghanistan and Iraq. In fact, a closer look at recent cases of 1 The annual growth rate from 1990 to 2001 has been 4.