A probabilistic model to quantify the results of the research (original) (raw)

To synthesize the variety of the contrasting results coming from the researches done on the Turin Shroud, a probabilistic model capable of consider mutually excluding events, is proposed. It is based on the definition of three possible alternatives (A=authentic, F=fake, N=not A or F) regarding the cloth origin. Each alternative is then evaluated from the assignment of the corresponding probability, with relative uncertainty, to each statement, relative to the results of the Shroud investigations. Each statement is composed by 7 coefficients: 3 relative to the corresponding alternative (A, F and N) probability, 3 relative to the corresponding uncertainty and one to evaluate the result importance. As an example, results obtained from a very simple probabilistic analysis that considers only 7 statements are compared with that published by other authors.