Population predictions for the world’s largest cities in the 21st century (original) (raw)

Socioeconomic Pathways and Regional Distribution of the World's 101 Largest Cities

2014

Regional trends in population, urbanization, resource availability and scarcity, as well as economic growth and decline are often best observed in the largest cities (urban areas). Typically, large cities are early adopters to regional opportunities for growth and development. This paper examines the effect of socioeconomic pathways on the regional population distribution of the world’s 101 largest cities in the 21st century. City populations are provided for 2010, 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100. Socioeconomic pathways, with various levels of sustainability and global cooperation are assessed based on their influence on the world’s largest cities. The results of this paper provide valuable insights into the effect of sustainable development on the regional distribution of large urban areas throughout the 21st century.

Reaching the World’s 500 Largest Cities: A Demographic and Statistical Analysis

Journal of Adventist Mission Studies, 2014

The year 2008 marked a significant watershed in human history: For the first time in recorded history demographers estimated that more than 50% of the global population lived in urban areas (DESA 2007:1-3, figures 1.1-2, table 1.1). The percentage of urban population is not an objective fact. The World Bank calculates urban population, for its authoritative “World Development Indicators” database, from “people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices” rather than a standard global definition (World Bank Website, see also World Bank 2013). In practice national definitions of urban areas vary significantly. For example, Canada defines an urban area as a place with 1,000 people whereas Japan uses a figure of 50,000 (Haub 2009). Nevertheless, however defined, for the first time demographers are agreed that global urban population has outstripped the rural population. The UN predicts that urban population will continue to grow by 1.8 percent per year from 2007 to ...

World Urbanisation: Trends and Patterns

Springer Nature, Singapore, 2020

This chapter attempts to overview the trend and regional pattern of world urbanisation. It also analyses the spatial pattern of urban hierarchy of cities by size class of settlements. The results show that global urban population has grown significantly from 0.75 billion in 1950 to 4.22 billion in 2018. The projected estimates show that by mid-twenty-first century, 68% of the world's population will live in urban areas. The growth trend of global population shows a consistent increase in urban population during 1950-2025, thereafter, a slowdown is projected during 2025-2050. The spatial pattern of urbanisation shows that epicentre of the urbanisation has shifted from global north to global south. Cities in Asia and Africa are currently growing faster as compared to other regions, and future estimates show that African cities will take the lead globally during 2015-2050 with faster growth rate. The highest number of mega and large cities have increasingly mushroomed in Asia and Africa. Projections indicate that this trend is likely to continue. The concentration of small-and medium-sized cities in these two regions has also increased over time. Two Asian countries-China and India will be home of some of the world's largest cities in twenty-first century. The future global urban population will be concentrated mainly in Asia and Africa. In contrast, several cities in Northern America and Europe are shrinking. The challenges posed by climate change are likely to impact the entire globe. With increasing level of urbanisation, cities of the global south are facing multiple challenges of food security, poverty, access to housing and basic amenities, especially with regard to the urban poor. In this context, it is important to highlight that national urban policies in Asian and African countries, which are currently least equipped to deal the challenges of urbanisation, need to address these issues in a manner which will lead to sustainable development. Countries from these two regions need to build capacities to deal with the added challenges of globalisation, income and spatial disparities as well as demographic dividend. National urban policies could be instrumental in guiding these countries towards sustainable and resilient future.

Chapter 3 : A new worldwide typology of cities and systems of cities

2018

The chapter proposes an overview of global urbanization since 1950, relying on the structural and dynamic principles of the evolutionary theory of urban systems and on the observations of some of the major financial linkages connecting cities. We analyze first an overview of the state of urbanization at the world scale using statistics collected and provided for all 195 nationstates of the United Nations. We then examine the extent to which the income level and human development index of countries are correlated with the urbanization rates. Trajectories of cities underline the booming cities including many Asiatic and African cities opposed to the relative declining cities. The total weight of emerging metropolises mostly located in Southern countries, passed the total population of the other groups of relatively declining cities between 1980 and 2010. It is highly critical for the urban future that the large majority of urban citizens of the world (more than 60%) will be living in ...