Libya After the Civil War Regime Change and Democratisation (original) (raw)
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This essay offers a basic framework for analyzing the Libyan democratization by looking at the deficit of a modern (post-modern) political transition élite and the potential of civil society.The Libyan transition to democracy has covered an extensive time frame during which the state has regressed politically. After the transatlantic exit, all that remained was tribal politics and military weakness. Thus, the absence of checks and balances, which rendered the country resistant to democratic reform, yet vulnerable to civil war.The Jamahiriya (state of the masses) functioned along relatively weak administrative and security institutions, as such the National Transitional Council (NTC) hoped, upon assuming power, to reconstruct major state structures and embark on a seamless transition to democracy, within one year. However, almost eight years following the end of the Qaddafi regime,and Libya is still in a transition phase. The Libyan transition is remarkable because this is the state"s first democratic and state building attempt since independence.Also, the nuances of the Libyan transition will greatly impact the type of democracy that will eventually materialize.
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Every critical development in history has a symbolic starting point. Although the "Arab Spring" in the Middle East and North Africa region started with the self-immolation of Tunisian Mohammed Bouazizi on 17 December 2010; regional experts and political scientists had already drawn attention to the unrest of the people in the region, the accumulating tension and the growing legitimacy problems of the regimes in the area. In this study, the dynamics of the popular movements in Libya, which is generally located in the Middle East and North Africa region, the possibility of a democratic regime in the country, and the freedom and democracy index will be evaluated and it will be investigated which factors are most affected by the democracy movements in the country.
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The revolution that overthrew Gaddafi's regime in 2011 was deeply marked by the essential features of Libyan society, such as its lack of social integration or its widespread clientelism and tribalism. All these features are deeply rooted in the historical past of the country. The Gaddafist regime itself was also formed very much by these same factors, and at the same time, it helped to shape them to some extent. Thus, it can be said that this regime was a singular experiment of partial modernisation in combination with a pronounced conservatism with respect to other aspects of social life. Consequently, despite its enthusiastic revolutionary rethoric, it appeared to be not very different from other regimes in the region. We believe it is on this basis that its ideology must be approached. Not only its actions in both the internal and external spheres but also those aspects that are most idiosyncratic and striking, such as the Green Book or the frequently histrionic behaviour of its leader.
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The project addresses the role of civil society organizations (CSOs) in democratization processes, bridging social science approaches to social movements and democracy. The project starts by revisiting the "transitology" approach to democratization and the political process approach to social movements, before moving towards more innovative approaches in both areas. From the theoretical point of view, a main innovation will be in addressing both structural preconditions as well as actors' strategies, looking at the intersection of structure and agency. In an historical and comparative perspective, I aim to develop a description and an understanding of the conditions and effects of the participation of civil society organizations in the various stages of democratization processes. Different parts of the research will address different sub-questions linked to the broad question of CSOs' participation in democratization processes: a) under which (external and internal) conditions and through which mechanisms do CSOs support democratization processes? b) Under which conditions and through which mechanisms do they play an important role in democratization processes? c) Under which conditions and through which mechanisms are they successful in triggering democratization processes? d) And, finally, what is the legacy of the participation of civil society during transitions to democracy on the quality of democracy during consolidation? The main empirical focus will be on recent democratization processes in EU member and associated states. The comparative research design will, however, also include selected comparisons with oppositional social movements in authoritarian regimes as well as democratization processes in other historical times and geopolitical regions. From an empirical point of view, a main innovation will lie in the development of mixed method strategies, combining large N and small N analyses, and qualitative comparative analysis with in-depth, structured narratives.
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: Libya's National Transitional Council (NTC) inherited a difficult and volatile domestic situation following the overthrow of Muammar Qadhafi. The new leadership faces serious and simultaneous challenges in all areas of statehood. Libya's key geostrategic position, and its role in hydrocarbon production and exportation, means that the course of internal developments there is crucial not only to the Libyan people, but also to neighboring countries both in North Africa and across the Mediterranean in southern Europe. The mitigation or prevention of conditions that could lead to Libya becoming a failing or failed state is of vital importance. In this monograph, United Kingdom-based academic Dr. Mohammed El-Katiri reviews the major challenges to the new Libyan regime, including the continuing role of tribalism and the difficulty posed by the NTC's lack of a monopoly on ensuring security in Tripoli and beyond. Key issues of concern to foreign partners when engaging with the ...
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The dissolution of the Gaddafi regime marks zero hour for a new Libya. There is a real danger that in the absence of the former leader’s authoritarian grip, the country will experience a high level of instability. However, the actions of the Transitional Council so far, as well as Libya’s basic socio-economic parameters, give reason to hope for a successful transition. This would also require that the Western actors reconceptualise their role in Libya. While their intervention has been decisive in shaping the outcome of the civil war, they should limit themselves to supporting Libyan initiatives when it comes to reconstruction.
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Two Parliaments and two governments1—neither of which is exercising any significant control over people and territory; two coalitions of armed groups confronting one another and conducting multiple overlapping localized conflicts; thriving organized crime, kidnappings, torture, targeted killings, and suicide bombings; and an increasing number of armed groups claiming affiliation to ISIS (also known as Da’esh): These are powerful reasons to portray Libya as the epitome of the failure of the Arab Spring. The country is sliding into a civil war, and a functional Libyan state is unlikely to emerge anytime soon. By all measures and standards, the Libyan democratic transition appears to have been derailed.
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