Assessing Threat Detection Scenarios through Hypothesis Generation and Testing (original) (raw)

The influence of experience upon information-sampling and decision-making behaviour during risk assessment in military personnel

Visual Cognition, 2015

We examined the influence of experience upon information-sampling and decisionmaking behaviour in a group of military personnel as they conducted risk assessments of scenes photographed from patrol routes during the recent conflict in Afghanistan. Their risk assessment was based on an evaluation of Potential Risk Indicators during examination of each scene. We found that both participant groups were equally likely to fixate Potential Risk Indicators, demonstrating similarity in the selectivity of their information-sampling. However, the inexperienced participants made more revisits to Potential Risk Indicators, had longer response times, and were more likely to decide that the scenes contained a high level of risk. Together, these results suggest that experience primarily modulates decision-making behaviour. We discuss potential routes to train personnel to conduct risk assessments in a more similar manner to experienced participants.

Tactical Decision Making Under Conditions of Uncertainty: An Empirical Study

PsycEXTRA Dataset, 2000

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of warfare. Military decision makers confront uncertainty when the data they encounter are incomplete (missing), ambiguous, or conflicting. This study examined how different categories of uncertainty (ambiguous/missing, conflicting, baseline) affect response time and type of decisions made in a low-fidelity tactical decision making task. Prior to the study, researchers elicited real-world tactical scenarios from veterans of Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom in which uncertainty was present. Nine scenarios were developed from the interviews and were given to 28 participants at the Command and General Staff College, FT Leavenworth, KS. Participants were asked to make a decision; their responses were recorded and analyzed. The results indicate that the category of uncertainty and scenario difficulty were significant factors in response time and type of decision made. These findings have the potential to improve human behavior modeling, tactical simulations, and representations of complex task environments.

An Empirical Study of the Relationship Between Situation Awareness and Decision Making

PsycEXTRA Dataset, 2005

It is assumed that good situation awareness (SA) leads to good decision making, which is then expected to result in a good outcome. Despite increasing reliance on this assumption by the land force, little research has been undertaken to validate it. This study attempts to address this deficiency. SA was assessed using the Direct Questioning Technique, which elicits SA through direct questioning during play. This is an adaptation of the Situation Awareness Global Assessment Technique. Responses to SA questions were compared against the ground truth of the scripted scenario. A relationship was found between SA and decision making, such that participants with a high degree of SA made high quality decisions. SA was also related to planning. However, other factors also contributed significantly to decision quality and performance.

Training Critical Thinking Skills for Battlefield Situation Assessment: An Experimental Test

In battlefield situation assessment, officers must interpret information that is incomplete, unreliable, and often conflicting and gather new information to improve their assessments and plans. In previous work, a framework for these cognitive activities was developed based on interviews with activity-duty command staff, and a training method was developed. That training helped officers to find and assess the reliability of hidden assumptions and to resolve conflicting evidence. Forty-three U.S. Army officers participated in an experimental training study with scenario-based tests. Trained officers generated more accurate arguments concerning a given assessment than did controls. Improvements in quality were related to the increased relevance of their judgments. In some problems, training countered a tendency to change hypotheses too readily; in other problems, training countered a tendency to hold on to a hypothesis too long. Training did not decrease confidence in evaluations, nor...

Perception of Risk and the Decision to Use Force

Policing, 2007

The quality of policing depends on making sound decisions. Many cognitive factors are involved in decision making and these must be understood and harnessed so as to enhance the quality of decisions taken by police officers. In this paper, I discuss two different decision-making systems (deliberative and experiential), and how decision factors (such as complexity), internal factors (such as expectations), and external factors (such as time pressure) all come together in deciding whether or not to use force. Providing proper training and correctly utilising technology can enhance an officer's ability to make sound decisions.

Decision-Making Uncertainty and the Use of Force in Cyberspace: A Phenomenological Study of Military Officers

2010

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Defense community perspectives on uncertainty and confidence judgments

Climatic Change, 2011

In 2007, the CNA Military Advisory Board (MAB), an expert panel composed of 11 retired admirals and generals from the United States, identified climate change as a "threat multiplier" for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world. (CNA MAB National security and the threat of climate change 2007)The Department of Defense reached a similar conclusion in last year's Quadrennial Defense Review-a legislatively mandated analysis of the Defense Department's strategy and priorities. This document frames the long-term course for policy decision-making at the highest levels. The reports demonstrate that climate change and energy are now mainstream elements of national security planning, and can be assessed within the frameworks used to evaluate other threats, risks, and responses. However, the exact magnitude of the threat posed by climate change is difficult to calibrate in part because the language used by scientists to predict uncertainty and the confidence levels of judgments is not sufficiently clear. The defense community has a vast amount of experience exploring and dealing with uncertainty. Scientists trying to better describe the effects of climate change may be able to draw lessons from the defense community's approach to uncertainty including how to better communicate findings to wide audiences including policy-makers.

The Effects of Reliability and Criticality on an IED Interrogation Task

Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, 2014

Controlling and monitoring unmanned vehicles is a cognitively demanding task, particularly when searching environments for potential improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Due to the diversity of methods used to construct IEDs, unreliable information about the potential for harm may be provided to operators. Also, warfighters may search environments that are sparsely or heavily populated. Few researchers have manipulated information reliability and task criticality jointly, though these constructs often co-vary in real task situations such as IED search. Sixteen undergraduate students navigated an unmanned ground vehicle around a demarcated course and made object investigation decisions. Participants searched the environment under conditions of low and high criticality and encountered objects accompanied by low or high reliability warnings. Results showed that criticality and reliability individually and jointly impacted reaction time and navigation errors. The reported findings gener...

Cognitive Task Analysis Methods in Envisioned Tactical Command Decision Making

Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, 2019

The battlespace is a volatile and complex environment in which tactical commanders face cognitively challenging responsibilities, compounded with the increased complexity of emerging cyber warfare. It is critical that tactical commanders gain adequate situation awareness for effective decision making to achieve mission success. While current tools enable distribution of large quantities and types of information, they do not adequately support the underlying cognitive work and information needs of tactical commanders. We performed a domain analysis using Cognitive Task Analysis methods, developing a prototypical operational scenario representative of current and envisioned environments, centered on a cyber-attack. Using this analysis, we identified cognitive and information requirements for information displays that support effective tactical decision making. Tactical commanders need to understand dynamic situations in the field, understand the viable courses of actions, know how the...