Statistical Inference and Evidence-Based Science (original) (raw)

2011, International journal of aquatic research and education

I presume that many readers may have heard some variation of the quote, attributed to British Prime Minister Benjamin Disreali and popularized by American humorist, Mark Twain (a.k.a., Samuel Clemens), when referring to confusion generated by the use and misuse of quantitative figures. "There are three kinds of mistruth: lies, damned lies, and statistics" (Twain, 1906). One of the "rites of passage" associated with obtaining a graduate degree is being required to complete multiple statistics classes. I try to sympathize with my current students when I reflect on how little I could recall after finishing my first course in tests and measurements as an undergraduate. During my Masters program at Purdue University, I gained a completely undeserved reputation for being a "statistics whiz," bestowed upon me by my fellow student and oft co-conspirator, Larry Bruya (who fulfills my personal definition of a "true friend" wherein a "friend" is said to be one who will bail you out of jail, while a "true friend" is one who sits in the jail cell with you and proclaims, "Golly, that was fun!"). Larry and I took the same first-level statistics class together at Purdue and in the evenings while studying, he would quiz me about what each day's topic meant. I was too dumb to realize that Larry wasn't asking rhetorical questions to challenge me, but that he really didn't know the answers. I figured I didn't want to appear stupid, so I started concocting answers and in the process figured out how to actively learn statistics! Thanks, Larry. There is a sequel to this story decades later. Whenever I make some kind of pronouncement in his presence, Larry has learned to inquire, "Do you really know the answer or are you just making that up?!" Such an inquiry never fails to result in gales of laughter while Larry explains to whoever is gathered our personal story about what he affectionately calls "making up crap about statistics." An important realization to come from any discussion about statistics, with or without any notion of lying or even just "making up crap," is that comprehending statistics can legitimately be quite confusing, even to those with some basic knowledge. They can be utterly mystifying to those without a degree of quantitative literacy in probability, laws of chance, and elementary statistical procedures. Worse, when statistics have been misused (say it ain't so!) simply to support one's preconceived opinion, all trust in them can go right out the window so that the validity of all statistics becomes suspect.