Probabilistic Approach ( Simulation-Based Reliability Assessment Method ) Applied in Engineering Design and Economics (original) (raw)
Related papers
Probabilistic approach applied in the design of machine parts and structures
2011
This paper focuses on the probabilistic numerical solution of the problems in mining, machine industry and biomechanics. Theory and applications of the Simulation-Based Reliability Assessment (SBRA) method are presented in the solution of the hard rock (ore) disintegration process (i.e. the bit moves into the ore and subsequently disintegrates it, the results are compared with experiments, new design of excavation tool is proposed), in the proposal design of machine for fatigue testing of railway axles and in the solution of designing of the external fixators applied in traumatology and orthopaedics (application for the treatment of open and unstable fractures or for lengthening human or animal bones etc.). Applications of the SBRA method connected with FEM in these areas are new and innovative trends in mechanics.
Monte Carlo Approach Applied in the Design of Machine Parts and Structures
Monte Carlo) numerical solution of the problems in mining, machine industry and biomechanics. Theory and applications of the Simulation-Based Reliability Assessment (SBRA) method (i.e. Monte Carlo approach) are presented in the solution of the hard rock (ore) disintegration process (i.e. the bit moves into the ore and subsequently disintegrates it, the results are compared with experiments, new design of excavation tool is proposed), in the proposal design of machine for fatigue testing of railway axles and in the solution of designing of the external fixators applied in traumatology and orthopaedics (application for the treatment of open and unstable fractures or for lengthening human or animal bones etc.). Applications of the SBRA method connected with FEM in these areas are new and innovative trends in mechanics and designing.
2013
The load-carrying system of each construction should fulfill several conditions which represent reliable criteria in the assessment procedure. It is the theory of structural reliability which determines probability of keeping required properties of constructions. Using this theory, it is possible to apply probabilistic computations based on the probability theory and mathematic statistics. Development of those methods has become more and more popular; it is used, in particular, in designs of load-carrying structures with the required level or reliability when at least some input variables in the design are random. The objective of this paper is to indicate the current scope which might be covered by the new method-Direct Optimized Probabilistic Calculation (DOProC) in assessments of reliability of load-carrying structures. DOProC uses a purely numerical approach without any simulation techniques. This provides more accurate solutions to probabilistic tasks, and, in some cases, such approach results in considerably faster completion of computations. DOProC can be used to solve efficiently a number of probabilistic computations. A very good sphere of application for DOProC is the assessment of the bolt reinforcement in the underground and mining workings. For the purposes above, a special software application-"Anchor"-has been developed.
Probabilistic Design and Reliability Analysis of
2011
In this paper the reliability analysis of sea flood defence systems and the probabilistic approach of the design of the sea flood defences are outlined. The application of probabilistic design methods offers the designer a way to unify the design of engineering structures, processes and management systems. For this reason there is a growing interest in the use of these methods in the design and safety analysis of civil engineering system including coastal flood defences. In this paper these methods are critical reviewed. The so-call probabilistic safety assessment and reliability based design models are developed and applied to a coastal flood defence system in Nam Dinh, Vietnam. An accurate safety assessment of the existing coastal defence system and a set of reliability based solution are, therefore, of large importance for rehabilitating coastal flood defences of the considered case study area. In accordance with present situation and analysis results, the coastal flood defences ...
Probabilistic Computational Methods in Structural Failure Analysis
Probabilistic methods are used in engineering where a computational model contains random variables. Each random variable in the probabilistic calculations contains uncertainties. Typical sources of uncertainties are properties of the material and production and/or assembly inaccuracies in the geometry or the environment where the structure should be located. The paper is focused on methods for the calculations of failure probabilities in structural failure and reliability analysis with special attention on newly developed probabilistic method: Direct Optimized Probabilistic Calculation (DOProC), which is highly efficient in terms of calculation time and the accuracy of the solution. The novelty of the proposed method lies in an optimized numerical integration that does not require any simulation technique. The algorithm has been implemented in mentioned software applications, and has been used several times in probabilistic tasks and probabilistic reliability assessments.
Probabilistic design and risk based approach in ci vil engineering
2007
s: Use of probabilistic methods are increasing in civil engineering design. The probabilistic methods allows designers, firstly, to take into account uncertainties of input parameters and to treat them as random variables. Secondly the civil engineering structure can be considered like a system which comprises number of components. Subsequently probabilistic approach aims to determine the true probability of failures of the whole system and to judge its acceptability in the view of the consequences. Having an existing system the actual safety level of the system is interested issue. By application of the probabilistic design this issue is able to be solved by implementing a reliability safety assessment, in which all possible failure mechanisms is taken into consideration as well as uncertainties of the boundary condition. However, questions are often reversed when the structured system is in design phases. Typically, these two following questions may arise: (i) what should be desig...
Monte Carlo reliability simulation of underground mining drilling rig
Drilling rigs are widely used in mine development or construction and tunnel engineering projects. The rig consists of 12 subsystems in a series configuration and can be driven by diesel or electrical engines. This paper uses the Kamat-Riley (K-R) event-based Monte Carlo simulation method to perform reliability analysis of an underground mine drilling rig. For data analysis and to increase statistical accuracy, the paper discusses three case studies in an underground mine in Sweden. Researchers built a process to programme the simulation process and used MATLABTM software to run simulations. The results showed the simulation approach is applicable to the reliability analysis of this rig. Moreover, the reliability of all rigs reaches almost zero value after 50 hours of operation. Finally, the differences between the reliability of the studied fleet of drilling rigs are a maximum 10%. Therefore, all maintenance or spare part planning issues can be managed in a similar way.
Dealing with Uncertainty and Risk in Rock Engineering Design
2018
A method for risk-based design is described in this paper. Probabilistic methods of analysis are applied to stress modelling to determine the probability of exceeding a given depth of failure. Suggestions are provided for dealing with geotechnical uncertainty. The understanding of aleatory variability can be improved by collecting more data and improving the quality of data through training and quality control. Stress and model uncertainty remains a challenge in geotechnical engineering. Some degree of subjective engineering judgment will therefore always be required in geotechnical design. Acceptance criteria then need to be defined in terms of safety and economic risk. Corporate risk matrices can be used for assessing the risk in terms of the probability and consequence. International safety benchmarking and safety milestones should be considered. The cost of rehabilitation of tunnels and the financial losses due to lost production are assessed using the model. A typical risk matr...
Reliability and Statistics in Geotechnical Engineering
Technometrics, 2005
the use of probabilistic techniques, and (4) integrating uncertainties and consequences by means of risk analysis. Many people have contributed to advances in probabilistic approaches to geotechnical engineering and have assisted us in preparing this book. At the risk of leaving out many significant contributors, we would like to mention the pioneering work of (alphabetically)