Financial Forecasting using Evolutionary Three Layer Perceptrons (original) (raw)

Chapter I Financial Modeling and Forecasting with an Evolutionary Artifical Neural Network

2005

In this chapter, I consider a design framework of a computational experiment in finance. The examination of statistics used for economic forecasts evaluation and profitability of investment decisions, based on those forecasts, reveals only weak relationships between them. The “degree of improvement over efficient prediction” combined with directional accuracy are proposed in an estimation technique, as an alternative to the conventional least squares. Rejecting a claim that the accuracy of the forecast does not depend upon which error-criteria are used, profitability of networks trained with L 6 loss function appeared to be statistically significant and stable. The best economic performances are realized for a 1-year investment horizon with longer training not leading to enhanced accuracy. An improvement in profitability is achieved for models optimized with genetic algorithm. Computational intelligence is advocated for searching optimal relationships among economic agents’ risk att...

Neuron Optimization of Evolutionaryartificial Neural Networks for Stock Priceindex Prediction

International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 2013

This study presents an optimization procedurefor the number ofprocessing elements (neurons) of hidden layers to predicta stock priceindex using Evolutionary Artificial Neural Networks (EANN), inparticular, for the Istanbul Stock Market price index (ISE) in order tocontribute to the development of Intelligent Systems Methods formodeling several systems that are highly non-linear and uncertain.The US dollars/Turkish Lira (US/TRY) exchange rate, Euro/TurkishLira (EUR/TRY) exchange rate, ISE National 100 (XU100) index,world oil price, and gold price were used as for a period ofapproximately 10 years' daily data asinputs. Performance isbenchmarked by mean squared error, normalized mean squarederror;mean absolute error and thecorrelationcoefficient.Withthe fixedneural network architecture and optimized parameters, evolutionaryneural networks perform better performance valueswhen thenumberof neurons used in hidden layers isoptimized.

An evolutionary artificial neural network time series forecasting system

1996

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have the ability of learning and to adapt to new situations by recognizing patterns in previous data. Time Series (TS)(observations ordered in time) often present a high degree of noise which difficults forecasting. Using ANNs for Time Series Forecasting (TSF) may be appealing. However, the main problem with this approach is on the search for the best ANN architecture. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are suited for problems of combinatorial nature, where other methods seem to fail.

Training Multilayer Perceptron with Genetic Algorithms and Particle Swarm Optimization for Modeling Stock Price Index Prediction

artificial intelligence, 2020

Predicting stock market (SM) trends is an issue of great interest among researchers, investors and traders since the successful prediction of SMs' direction may promise various benefits. Because of the fairly nonlinear nature of the historical data, accurate estimation of the SM direction is a rather challenging issue. The aim of this study is to present a novel machine learning (ML) model to forecast the movement of the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) 100 index. Modeling was performed by multilayer perceptron-genetic algorithms (MLP-GA) and multilayer perceptron-particle swarm optimization (MLP-PSO) in two scenarios considering Tanh (x) and the default Gaussian function as the output function. The historical financial time series data utilized in this research is from 1996 to 2020, consisting of nine technical indicators. Results are assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and correlation coefficient values to compare the accuracy and performance of the developed models. Based on the results, the involvement of the Tanh (x) as the output function, improved the accuracy of models compared with the default Gaussian function, significantly. MLP-PSO with population size 125, followed by MLP-GA with population size 50, provided higher accuracy for testing, reporting RMSE of 0.732583 and 0.733063, MAPE of 28.16%, 29.09% and correlation coefficient of 0.694 and 0.695, respectively. According to the results, using the hybrid ML method could successfully improve the prediction accuracy.

Forecasting of Stock Prices Using Multi Layer Perceptron

Prediction of stock market has been a challenging task and of great interest for researchers as the very fact that stock market is a highly volatile in its behavior. For predicting stock price of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), Multilayer Networks with dynamic back propagation has been used. The stock prices are determined and compared with two different architectures NN1 (3-16-1) and NN2 (3-6-1). Neural Network based forecasting of stock prices of selected sectors under Bombay Stock Exchange show that neural networks have the power to predict prices albeit the volatility in the markets. The paper is organized as follows. In Section one the volatile nature of stock market is discussed. Section two reviews the literature on the applications of ANNs in predicting the stock prices. Section three gives an overview of forecasting methods. In Section four the concept of Artificial Neural Network presented. Section five presents the methodology adopted in forecasting the stock price. In the final section results, future direction of the study and conclusion are derived.

Financial Time Series Forecasting Using a Hybrid Neural Evaluative Approach

2009

The design of models for time series prediction has found a solid foundation on statistics. Recently, artificial neural networks have been a good choice as approximators to model and forecast time series. Designing a neural network that provides a good approximation is an optimization problem. Given the many parameters to choose from in the design of a neural network, the search space in this design task is enormous. When designing a neural network by hand, scientists can only try a few of them, selecting the best one of the set they tested. In this paper we present a hybrid approach that uses evolutionary computation to produce a complete design of a neural network for modeling and forecasting time series. The resulting models have proven to be better than the ARIMA models produced by a statistical analysis procedure and than hand-made artificial neural networks.

An evolutionary approach for optimizing three-layer perceptrons architecture

We propose an evolutionary algorithm for optimizing the hidden layer size of three-layer perceptrons. The optimization problem is posed in terms of finding, for each learning database, the best number of neurons to use in the hidden layer. For this, a population of three-layer perceptrons is evolved using the mean squared error as a measure of fitness. Each individual of this population is trained using the backpropagation learning algorithm. During the evolutionary process, parents are chosen using the rank selection operator and new candidate solutions are produced using the two-point crossover and mutation operators. Experiment results show that the proposed method perform well for different examples of real test data. Typical examples of these results are presented and discussed.

seMLP: Self-evolving Multi-layer Perceptron in Stock Trading Decision Making

SN Comput. Sci., 2021

There is a growing interest in automatic crafting of neural network architectures as opposed to expert tuning to find the best architecture. On the other hand, the problem of stock trading is considered one of the most dynamic systems that heavily depends on complex trends of the individual company. This paper proposes a novel self-evolving neural network system called self-evolving Multi-Layer Perceptron (seMLP) which can abstract the data and produce an optimum neural network architecture without expert tuning. seMLP incorporates the human cognitive ability of concept abstraction into the architecture of the neural network. Genetic algorithm (GA) is used to determine the best neural network architecture that is capable of knowledge abstraction of the data. After determining the architecture of the neural network with the minimum width, seMLP prunes the network to remove the redundant neurons in the network, thus decreasing the density of the network and achieving conciseness. seML...

Stock Prediction using Neural Networks and Evolution Algorithm

International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET), 2022

Various researches and studies have shown that machine learning techniques like neural network have the ability to learn and predict the general trend of stock market. Artificial intelligence and different machine learning techniques have been widely implemented in the field of forecasting stock prices for a long time. However, selecting the best model and best hyperparameters for these models is highly necessary for better accuracy in prediction. Given the huge number of architecture types and hyper-parameters for each model, it is not practical to find the best combination for best accuracy. Therefore, in this research we used evolution algorithm to optimize model architecture and hyper-parameters. Promising results are found in stock prediction.

Application of Genetic Algorithm and Neural Network in Forecasting with Good Data

Selection of effective input variables on decision making or forecasting problems, is one of the most important dilemmas in forecasting and decision making field. Due to research and problem constraints, we can not use all of known variables for forecasting or decision making in real world applications. Thus, in decision making problems or system simulations, we are trying to select important and effective variables as good data. In this paper we use a hybrid model of Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to determine and select effective variables on forecasting and decision making process. In this model we have used genetic algorithm to code the combination of effective variables and neural network as a fitness function of genetic algorithm. The introduced model is applied in a case study to determine effective variables on forecasting future dividend of the firms that are members of Tehran stock exchange. This model can be used in different fields such as financial forecasting, market variables prediction, intelligent robots decision making, DSS structures, etc.