The BOF5 macroeconomic model of Finland : Structure and equations (original) (raw)

Bank of Finland staff forecasts: an evaluation

2018

Monetary policy decisions are based on assessment of the current and future state of the Monetary policy decisions are based on assessment of the current and future state of the economy. In order to obtain forecasts, central banks build models, which are simplified economy. In order to obtain forecasts, central banks build models, which are simplified representations of the complex interactions among macroeconomic variables. The Bank representations of the complex interactions among macroeconomic variables. The Bank of Finland regularly publishes its forecasts, using a large set of data regarding current of Finland regularly publishes its forecasts, using a large set of data regarding current economic developments. Analysis of this large set of data includes the use of formal economic developments. Analysis of this large set of data includes the use of formal macroeconomic models, which are also employed to make projections for the future macroeconomic models, which are also employed to make projections for the future course of the economy. These projections represent the most likely values for the main course of the economy. These projections represent the most likely values for the main macroeconomic variables of the Finnish economy. macroeconomic variables of the Finnish economy. This article documents the performance of Bank of Finland forecasts for GDP, inflation, unemployment and the components of GDP over the years 2004-2017. This period has been particularly challenging for forecasting. The financial crisis originating in the United States in 2007 spread globally. As a consequence Finland, as well as many other countries, experienced a severe contraction in output and a slow recovery. New policy measures were implemented in response to the crisis, and their effects on the economy were highly uncertain and difficult to anticipate. Macroeconomic models and their ability to predict developments in the economy were called into question, as the models used for forecasting by Central Banks failed to predict Bofbulletin.fi-Bank of Finland articles on the economy

Monetary policy in Finland: experiences since 1992

This paper discusses monetary policy experiences in Finland since 1992. The paper starts with a discussion on general macroeconomic developments (Section 1) then focusing on inflation developments (Section 2). Changes in the monetary policy framework are discussed in Section 3. Finally, Section 4 draws some conclusions.

Appropriate Macroeconomic Model Support for the Ministry of Finance and the National Institute of Economic Research: A Pilot Study

Research Papers in Economics, 2015

We analyse model choices of various international institutions and find that the majority of the studied central banks have chosen so-called DSGE-models. Ministry of finances have chosen to continue using so-called Semi-Structural Models (SSM) while international organisations such as the IMF and the OECD have “a suite of models” including both DSGE and SSM. Based on these international experiences and the specific institutional set up in Sweden we list a number of criteria and rank different modelling strategies. We propose that a DSGE-model for both forecast and policy analysis including a rich modelling of fiscal policy would be appropriate for the Ministry of finance and the National Institute of Economic Research in Sweden.

Bank of Finland's long-run forecast framework with human capital (co-authors Meri Obstbaum & Petri Mäki-Fränti, available: https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-202112162154)

Bank of Finland Economics Review, 2021

Population ageing constitutes a central challenge to Finland. Understanding the Finnish economy’s likely future trajectory and the key sources of growth is important for the design of policies to counteract these adverse long-term trends. For this purpose, we develop a novel long-run forecast framework based on endogenous growth theory with human and fixed capital. A central result is a pronounced projected decrease in human capital, substantially weighing on the long-run GDP outlook for Finland. To revert these trends substantial policy efforts are needed. Unless the decline in human capital can be prevented by increasing fertility, skilled immigration, education or employment, even reaching a growth rate of one per cent after the 2040s would require significant measures to increase new fixed capital investments with new technology.

Assessing the Forecasting Performance of a Macroeconomic Model

Journal of Policy Modeling, 1999

This paper contains a description of a small quarterly forecasting model for the Finnish economy. We evaluate the forecasting properties of the model by means of stochastic simulation involving both the endogenous and exogenous variables of the model. The simulations allow us to identify and quantify the main sources of forecasting uncertainty. We are also able to assess the linearity of the model. Forecasting performance is also analyzed in a conventional way by means of dynamic simulation. The important issue in these simulations is the stability of the model: how simulated values depend on the estimation period and the ordering of time periods.

An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Estonia

This paper presents an estimated open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Estonia. The model is designed to highlight the main driving forces behind the Estonian business cycle and to understand how euro area economic shocks and its monetary policy affect the small open economy of Estonia. The model described in this paper is a two-area DSGE model incorporating New Keynesian features such as nominal price and wage rigidity, variable capital utilization, investment adjustment costs, as well as other typical features -both for the domestic and euro area part of the model. It is rich in structural shocks such as technology, consumption preference, mark-up, etc. The model is estimated by Bayesian techniques using a quarterly data sample that covers main macroeconomic aggregates of Estonia and the euro area. The ultimate goal of the new model is for it to be used in simulation exercises, policy advice and forecasting at the Bank of Estonia. JEL Code: E4, E5

Adaptive Inflation Expectations Under Structural Changes: The Case of Finland

SSRN Electronic Journal, 1997

* This paper is part of my doctoral thesis concerning the functioning of modern financial markets and the investment behaviour of households in Finland. All the empirical results and the RATS code for the estimations are available upon request. I wish to thank first of all David Montgomery from the University of Hawaii at Manoa for generously providing me the core of the RATS codes both for the deterministic and stochastic parts of the Tsay procedure. These and many other useful codes (under construction) for RATS users are now available form the Internet address http://www2.hawaii.edu/\~dmontgom/. In addition, I wish to thank professor Tsay for giving me the hint to DavidÕs work. Also Tom Maycock from ESTIMA has provided some useful suggestions to modify some other codes used in this work. Even though the usual disclaimer applies, I also express my warmest thanks to professors Markku Rahiala, Pekka Ilmakunnas, Antti Kanto and Rauli Svento and the participants of the workshops at the University of Oulu and FPPE (Capital Markets and Financial Economics) for constructive comments on an earlier draft of this paper. The help from Mikko Spolander and Kari Takala (Bank of Finland) with the data and the financial support from the FPPE, the Yrjš Jahnsson foundation and OsuuspankkiryhmŠn tutkimusssŠŠtiš is also gratefully acknowledged. Juha Junttila; Adaptive inflation expectations under structural changes: The case of Finland.

Macroeconomic modelling for policy analysis

Firenze University Press eBooks, 2013

INFORUM models. A multiregional model for Italy (MRIO) has been developed also in the work by Cherubini and Paniccià, MRIO). Important methodological improvements in this work concern the multiregional trade flows estimate procedure, thanks to the availability of unique survey data produced by Banca d'Italia. The model is used to investigate changes of the Italian economic and productive structure at a sub-national level in the 1995-2006 period, with a special focus on the role of spatial interdependencies among regions in the transmission of shocks. Two specific issues are studied by the remaining papers of this session. Werling and Horst investigate the effects of defense spending cuts on the US economy using the LIFT model. The analysis is conducted to determine the economic and employment impacts of specific alternative scenarios for federal defense spending cuts from 2012 to 2022 considering the effects on the U.S. economy as a whole, on the industrial composition of the country, and the effects on each state. Finally, a medium term forecast of the Russian economy is developed by Baranov, Gilmundinov, Pavlov and