Climate change projections for Greek viticulture as simulated by a regional climate model (original) (raw)
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OENO One
Aim: This research aimed to: (1) investigate the relationships between harvest dates and berry composition with air temperature during important periods during the growing season, across a range of indigenous and international winegrape varieties grown in wine regions over the majority of Greece; (2) calculate growing degree-days (GDD) from 1st of April until the harvest date of each variety and group the winegrape varieties according to their heat requirements; and (3) predict future harvest dates based upon these heat requirements under different representative emission pathways (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and future time periods (2041-2065 and 2071-2095) using an ensemble projection dataset.Methods and results: The analysis of heat requirements based on GDD from 1st of April to harvest date identified consistent maturity groups of the varieties studied, especially for indigenous Greek varieties. Trend analysis using the basic linear regression model showed that harvest dates have s...
BIO web of conferences, 2017
The aim of this study is to reveal the shifts in climate suitability for wine production affecting Romanian wine growing regions. For this, we analyzed the spatial distribution over Romanian territory of the oenoclimate aptitude index (IAOe) for the 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2013 time periods. The IAOe has been calculated based on gridded data at 10 × 10 km resolution of average daily temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration between 1961-2013, originating from about 150 weather stations across Romanian territory and recorded in the ROCADA database. The study reveals: northward shifts and to higher altitudes of suitability for wine production; the appearance of new areas suitable for wine production; the expansion or the shrinkage of the current areas suitable for wine production; shifts in classes of suitability for wine production in the current wine regions and appearance of premises of replacing their specific varieties and traditional wine type production; the tendency to level climate suitability at regional scale by diminishing suitability for white wines and replacing it with climate suitability for red wines. The study provides a solid support for developing strategies to adapt Romanian viticulture to climate change.
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Grapevine phenology is particularly sensitive to temperature variations, with changes in climate shifting events earlier and advancing berry maturation into a hotter part of the growing cycle. Consequently, serious concerns regarding the negative influences of climate change on global wine quality have been raised, with the scientific community focusing on documenting these changes to better understand and address the impacts. This study adds to this knowledge by investigating air temperature and precipitation trends over the last 40 years (i.e., 1980–2019). Over the most recent period of records (i.e., 2000–2019), minimum air temperatures significantly increased at a higher rate than maximum temperatures. On the other hand, precipitation showed the least significant trends over time. In addition, wine quality assessment and identification of the most significant weather variables and climatic indices that correlate with wine quality rating scores have also been performed. To serve ...
CLIMATE CHANGE PROBLEMS IN AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPE AREAS: EASTERN THRACE VINEYARDS
Journal of Environmental Protection and Ecology, 2020
Hurricanes, heat waves, torrential rain, flooding and other extremes of weather are being reported every year around the world. Each of these weather events is unusual, and are held in growing consensus as early indications of global climate change. It is now widely agreed that changes in land use, deforestation, and especially burning fossil fuels have already caused and will continue to cause substantial releases of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which directly affects global climate change. One of the largest contributors to this phenomenon is the agriculture sector, and, paradoxically, this sector is also one of the most affected by climate change. That is, because agriculture depends directly on predictable climate conditions, and suffers when environmental variables fluctuate unpredictably. The impacts of climate change on agriculture come about through changes in variability, seasonality, mean precipitation and water availability, as well as the emergence of new pathogens and diseases. The importance of understanding climate change impacts on agriculture is especially evident within viticulture. Direct or indirect effects of climate change in viticulture were monitored on vegetative and generative development, crop quality, yield, harvest time, irrigation, fertilisation, crop preservation and marketing. The climate not only influences the production of quality grapes, but it also affects the quality of the resulting products, including wine. In the scope of this study, a representative survey was done within Eastern Thrace Wine Producers, Turkey, to reveal the effects of climate change on wine grape production and the produced wines. The results were examined in order to present suggestions for future climate projections.
On the use of regional climate models: Implications of climate change for viticulture in Serbia
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2012
Climate projections obtained from the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University -Princeton Ocean Model) driven by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), showed that the vineyard regions of Serbia tend to become warmer and dryer toward the end of 21st century. To evaluate how Serbian viticulture could be affected by a projected climate regime, several climatic variables and agro-climatic indices describing the suitability of a particular area for grapevine production were calculated, after a statistical bias correction was applied to the daily temperature and precipitation data from EBU-POM outputs. Comparison between climatic variables and agro-climatic indices for the reference period 1961-1990 and predicted values for the 2001-2030 period (under the SRES A1B scenario) and the 2071-2100 period (under the SRES A2 scenario) was made for 18 climatological stations placed mostly within, but also outside traditional viticultural regions. According to the obtained change trends it is likely that no significant disturbances in Serbian viticulture will occur over the next few decades, but considerable changes are expected by the end of the 21st century. Warmer and prolonged growing season with greater heat accumulation and longer frost-free period with decline in frost frequency would likely affect the yield and ripening potential of grapes and induce shifts in varietal suitability and wine styles. Projected changes may bring on the need for additional vineyard irrigation, but also open up the possibility that marginal and elevated areas, previously too cool for cultivation of grapevines, become climatically suited for viticulture.
BIO Web of Conferences
Climate change is of major relevance to wine production as most of the wine-growing regions of the world, in particular the Douro region, are located within relatively narrow latitudinal bands with average growing season temperatures limited to 13-21 • C. This study focuses on the incidence of climate variables and indices that are relevant both for climate change detection and for grape production with particular emphasis on extreme events (e.g. cold waves, storms, heat waves). Dynamical downscaling of MPI-ESM-LR global data forced with RCP8.5 climatic scenario is performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to a regional scale including the Douro valley of Portugal for recent-past (1986-2005) and future periods (2046-2065; 2081-2100). The number, duration and intensity of events are superimposed over critical phenological phases of the vine (dormancy, bud burst, flowering, véraison, and maturity) in order to assess their positive or negative implications on wine production in the region. An assessment on the statistical significance of climatic indices, their differences between the recent-past and the future scenarios and the potential impact on wine production is performed. Preliminary results indicate increased climatic stress on the Douro region wine production and increased vulnerability of its vine varieties. These results will provide evidence for future strategies aimed to preserve the high-quality wines in the region and their typicality in a sustainable way.
Impact of Climate Change on Growing Season and Dormant Period Characteristics for the Balkan Region
The focus of this paper is to explain a proper way of using climate model simulations in climate change impact studies. Special attention is addressed to reducing model bias, a systematic model error present in all climate integrations. Studies are done using climate projection results obtained by the Coupled Regional Climate Model EBU-POM, for three periods: 1961-1990 (experiment 20c3m), 2001-2030 (A1B scenario) and 2071-2100 (A2 scenario) for the Balkan area with special analysis of vineyard regions in Serbia. A Statistical Bias Correction method, based on daily values, is applied to the model results in order to minimize bias. Corrected values for 2 m air temperature and precipitation are used to calculate several climate indicators important for grape growing. Obtained results show that projected increase in temperature may lead to an extended growing season duration, as well as an increase in Growing Degree-Days by 1000 units, by the end of the 21 st century. The grapevine dormant period is likely to be shortened and affected by warmer winters with less frost days. Changes in water supply and overheating could lead to changes in vineyard locations or changes in the selection of grapevine cultivars. Presented results show that the present climate conditions in vineyard regions could be shifted to higher altitudes (1000 m) by the end of the century. INTRODUCTION Favorable climate is one of the most important conditions for successful grape growing and wine production. While other grape growing factors can be modified to some degree, climate cannot making it the main indicator for cultivar selection. Many studies indicate that climate is changing at the global level and consequences could lead to an extensive change in present vineyard regions (Jones et al., 2005; Metzger et al., 2008). The IPCC Forth Assessment Report (Christensen et al., 2007) shows that Global Climate Models (GCMs) project an increase in precipitation in the northern part and a decrease in the southern part of the northern hemisphere. The region between the two areas with different trends in precipitation has different placement in GCM projections, shifted more or less on the north or south, depending on the model. Beside that, the Balkan Peninsula is under great influence of the Mediterranean Sea. These are some of the reasons why it is necessary to perform climate change impact studies using a Regional Climate Model (RCM) coupled with an ocean model. Such model has a larger resolution than a GCM, thus better resolves processes related to complex topography of the region, and it takes into account the important influence of the nearby sea. In this study we used the results obtained by the Coupled RCM EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model, Djurdjevic and Rajkovic, 2008). Climate projections are performed for a base period 1961-1990 (experiment 20c3m), representing the present climate, and for two periods in the future: 2001-2030 (scenario A1B) and 2071-2100 (scenario A1B and A2). Analyzing a period of thirty years is considered to be valid for climate studies because it is able to capture 75% of the variance of the true signal (Huntingford et al., 2003), as well as statistically significant changes in extreme
Climate trends in a non-traditional high quality wine producing region
Bragantia, 2014
The global warming may put pressure over some world's highest quality wine producing regions. This fact indicates the need to evaluate the presence of climate change in non-traditional wine producing regions of the Globe. Therefore, the goals of this study were to detect trends in rainfall and air temperature series obtained from three locations of the eastern part of the State of São Paulo, Brazil (a non-traditional high quality wine producing region) and to evaluate the effect of the detected climate trends on agrometeorological indices frequently used to indicate suitable areas for wine production. The trend analyses were applied to maximum and minimum air temperature series, rainfall series and to the following agrometeorological parameters: heliothermal index, cool night index and growing degree-days. These three indices were selected due to their previous use in studies that address the effect of regional climate conditions on the general wine style. The analyses took into...
Climate Change Trends in Some Romanian Viticultural Centers
The evolution of temperature indicators, more pronounced in the north of Romania, clearly shows a gradual warming trend, mainly during the growing season, especially during the ripening of the grapes. There have been highlighted relatively large differences between the values of the main bioclimatic indicators of the country's wine regions, as well as a stronger growth trend of these ones in the northern areas and at the Black Sea. The viticultural region of Dobrogea hills profits by maritime influences that limit summer temperature extremes and winter frost. There is evidence that in many regions, day temperature increased more than night temperature. Results show that Romanian viticulture will benefit from climate change. Given these trends and knowing their possible negative effects on vine physiology, production and quality, the future viticultural zoning requires reconsideration, and the application of technological measures to minimize the negative effects of climate change.
Risk of climate change for grapevine production in Mediterranean areas
Bulletin de l'OIV, 2010
Vineyards play an important role in the Mediterranean landscape, thanks to their good adaptation the clime, especially to semi-arid conditions which helps to explain the large extensions throughout Spain. The aim is to evaluate the risk of climate change and the implications for future decisions and policy. The results are useful for exploring solutions for and grapevine management adequate for the future in Mediterranean areas. Historical data of grapevine production in three contrasting locations is used to develop empirical statistical models that are then used to evaluate the impacts of climate change. The uncertainty of future climate conditions is evaluated by using 16 different climate scenarios. We plan to extend this preliminary analysis to include the major grapevine producing regions in Spain and include climate indices and other tools of grapevine adequacy and quality. The results presented here are part of a larger study that includes several other Mediterranean crops and scenarios (Iglesias et al., 2010).