Population Growth and Carbon Emissions (original) (raw)
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We provide evidence that lower fertility can simultaneously increase income per capita and lower carbon emissions, eliminating a trade-off central to most policies aimed at slowing global climate change. We estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions, accounting for the fact that changes in fertility patterns affect carbon emissions through three channels: total population, the age structure of the population, and economic output. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. First, we estimate the elasticity of carbon emissions with respect to population and income per capita in an unbalanced yearly panel of crosscountry data from 1950–2010. We demonstrate that the elasticity with respect to population is nearly seven times larger than the elasticity with respect to income per capita and that this difference is statistically significant. Thus, the regression results imply that 1% slower population growth could be accompanied by an increase in income per capita of nearly 7% while still lowering carbon emissions. In the second part of our analysis, we use a recently constructed economic-demographic model of Nigeria to estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions, accounting for the impacts of fertility on population growth, population age structure, and income per capita. We find that by 2100 C.E. moving from the medium to the low variant of the UN fertility projection leads to 35% lower yearly emissions and 15% higher income per capita. These results suggest that population policies could be part of the approach to combating global climate change.
An Investigation of the Role of Population Age Structure and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Africa
Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 2017
The study investigates the effects of population age structure, that is, the number of people who could potentially be economically active (15-65 years) on carbon dioxide emissions in Africa at different income levels. The study seeks to determine whether the economically active population of the African countries play significant roles in the rising carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions on the continent or not. We employed fixed effects, random effects and generalized least squares (GLS) estimators, and measures the quantitative impacts from an augmented STIRPAT model constructed assuming that population structure, manufacturing sector, the services sector, final consumption expenditure (annual growth) are the predictors of CO 2 emissions (environmental impacts). The findings suggest mixed results of positive and negative impacts of population age structure: The quantitative impacts indicate that the average impact of population age structure on CO 2 emissions, when the population age structure change across time and between countries in LICA and UICA increases by 1 per cent, reduces CO 2 emissions by about 0.67 per cent and 1.08 per cent respectively, holding all other predictors constant. Whereas the estimated results indicate that the average impact of population-age-structure on CO 2 emissions, when the population structure change across time and between countries in LMICA increases by 1 per cent, increases CO 2
IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2021
Ample amount of scientific effort has been applied to question the potentials of fossil fuel combustion and other carbon emission sources which in turn has impact on human population growth. This study sought to find the extent of which carbon emissions impact population growth among the Magna cum Oil producing Africa countries. The study utilises panel data analysis within the sample period: 2000–2019 using the Pooled Ordinary Least Squares and the Feasible General Least Square. The results of the research revealed the existence of a significant and negative relationship. This therefore, makes this subject an issue of critical policy interest and requires immediate actions and makes this research very significant in recent times as it considers several countries within the study’s scope.
Impact of population growth on Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emission: empirical evidence from Nigeria
Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah
This paper seeks to examine the impact of population growth on carbon dioxide emission in Nigeria. Time series data from 1975 to 2016 was adopted. Variables such as population, affluence and technology were used as independent variables which were extracted from the IPAT equation. Econometric tools such as Ordinary Least Squares were adopted. The findings show that there is a positive association between CO2 emission, population and technology whereas affluence has a negative relationship with CO2. The study concluded that the population growth has a marginal impact on the level of CO2 emission. The paper recommended that there is need for the government to adopt a climate friendly technology that will minimize the increasing CO2 emission, improve on its GDP alongside controlling her population growth.
Impact of population growth on Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emission)
Journal of Perspective on Financing and Regional Development, 2019
This paper seeks to examine the impact of population growth on carbon dioxide emission in Nigeria. Time series data from 1975 to 2016 was adopted. Variables such as population, affluence and technology were used as independent variables which were extracted from the IPAT equation. Econometric tools such as Ordinary Least Squares were adopted. The findings show that there is a positive association between CO2 emission, population and technology whereas affluence has a negative relationship with CO2. The study concluded that the population growth has a marginal impact on the level of CO2 emission. The paper recommended that there is need for the government to adopt a climate friendly technology that will minimize the increasing CO2 emission, improve on its GDP alongside controlling her population growth.
Global Demographic Change and Climate Policies
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017
Between 1950 and 2017, world average life expectancy increased from below-50 to above-70, while the fertility rate dropped from 5 to about 2.5. We develop and calibrate an analytic climate-economy model with overlapping generations to study the effect of such demographic change on capital markets and optimal climate policies. Our model replicates findings from the OLG-demography literature, such as a rise in households' savings, and a declining rate of return to capital. We also find that demographic change raises the social cost of carbon, at 2020, from 28 euro/tCO 2 in a model that abstracts from demography, to 94 euro/tCO 2 in our calibrated model.
The Impacts of Population Change and Economic Growth on Carbon Emissions in Nigeria
2019
The main aim of this studyis to investigate the impacts of population total, grossdomestic product per capita, urbanization rate and energy use on carbon emissions in Nigeria for a period of 1981-2015using autoregressive distributed lag approach to co-integration (ARDL). The empirical resultsrevealed evidence of a long run relationship among the variables. The generalized ridge regression was used to correct the presenceof multicollinearity among the explanatory variablesin the long-run. Resultsshow that population total, gross domestic product per capita, urbanization rate and energy usehave a positive impact on carbon emissions. Energy use and urbanization both contributed significantly to increasing carbon emissions in the longand shortrun respectively. Considering the fact that the factors investigated in this study are of the increasing trend in this nation there is a need to implement policies to curb the increasing rate of carbon emissions in Nigeria.Keywords:Carbon Emission,...
This study examines the regional and temporal differences in the statistical relationship between national-level carbon dioxide emissions and national-level population size. The authors analyze panel data from 1960 to 2005 for a diverse sample of nations, and employ descriptive statistics and rigorous panel regression modeling techniques. Initial descriptive analyses indicate that all regions experienced overall increases in carbon emissions and population size during the 45-year period of investigation, but with notable differences. For carbon emissions, the sample of countries in Asia experienced the largest percent increase, followed by countries in Latin America, Africa, and lastly the sample of relatively affluent countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania combined. For population size, the sample of countries in Africa experienced the largest percent increase, followed countries in Latin America, Asia, and the combined sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Findings for two-way fixed effects panel regression elasticity models of national-level carbon emissions indicate that the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size is much smaller for nations in Africa than for nations in other regions of the world. Regarding potential temporal changes, from 1960 to 2005 the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size decreased by 25% for the sample of Africa countries, 14% for the sample of Asia countries, 6.5% for the sample of Latin America countries, but remained the same in size for the sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Overall, while population size continues to be the primary driver of total national-level anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, the findings for this study highlight the need for future research and policies to recognize that the actual impacts of population size on national-level carbon emissions differ across both time and region.