Managing water-use trade-offs in a semi-arid river delta to sustain multiple ecosystem services: a modeling approach (original) (raw)
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Applied Ecology and Environmental Research
The aim of this study was to optimal surface water resource management in the river-lake connected basins which are faced with water scarcity. In these regions, meeting the water demands of stakeholders along with supplying the environmental water requirements are critical and controversial issues. In this research, a multi-objective water allocation model which addresses the socioeconomic and environmental objectives was developed, and a new simple method has been introduced for equilibrating between the sectors among which there are main conflicts. The proposed method was examined in the Zarrineh and Simineh rivers basins in Iran. These basins are the main surface water suppliers of the Lake Urmia which is facing a shrinkage challenge. As the agricultural sector is the main water user in the Lake Urmia basin, so there are significant conflicts between this sector and Lake Urmia's environment. Hence, the equilibrium status is obtained between these two stakeholders through drawing the graph of their utility functions versus risk parameter in the compromise programming technique. The proposed model can supply the domestic, industrial and agricultural demands 92.3, 100 and 60.8% respectively. Moreover, the ecological requirements of the rivers are supplied totally, and that of Lake Urmia amounts to 67.45%.
Socio-hydrology from Local to Large Scales: An Agent-based Modeling Approach
2022
For decades, the interaction between water and people has attracted hydrologists’ attention. However, the coevolution of social and natural processes, which occurs across a range of time scales, has not yet been adequately characterized. This research gap has motivated more research in recent years under the umbrella of “socio-hydrology”. The purpose of socio-hydrology is to posit the endogeneity of humans in a hydrological system and then to investigate feedback mechanisms between hydrological and human systems that might lead to emergent phenomena. The current state-of-the-art in socio-hydrology faces several challenges that include (1) a tenuous connection of socio-hydrology to broader research on social, economic, and policy aspects of water resources, (2) the (in)capability of socio-hydrological models to capture human behavior by generic feedback mechanisms that can be extrapolated to other places, and (3) unsatisfying calibration or validation processes in modeling. To address the first gap, a socio-hydrology study needs to connect proper social theories on water-related human decision making with a water resource model based on a given context and scale. Addressing the second gap calls for socio-hydrology research with case studies in different and contrasting regions and at different scales. In fact, such study can shed light on the similarities and differences in socio-hydrological systems in different contexts and scales as initial steps for future research. The third research gap calls for a socio-hydrology study that improves calibration and validation processes. Thus, to address all these gaps in one thesis, two case studies with completely different environments are chosen to investigate various phenomena at different scales. The research presented here contributes to socio-hydrological understanding at two spatial scales. To account for the heterogeneity of human decision making and its interactions with the hydrologic system, an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach is used in this research. The first objective is to explore human adaptation to drought as well as the subsequent expected or unexpected effects on the agricultural sector and to develop a socio-hydrological model to predict agricultural water demand. To do so, an agent-based agricultural water demand model (ABAD) is developed. This model is applied to the Bow River Basin in Alberta, Canada, as a study region, which has recently experienced drought periods. The second objective is to explore conflict-and-cooperation processes in transboundary rivers as socio-hydrological phenomena at a large scale. The Eastern Nile Basin Socio-hydrological (ENSH) model is developed and applied to the Eastern Nile Basin (ENB) in Africa in which conflict-and-cooperation dynamics can be seen among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. The ENSH model aims to quantify and simulate these countries’ willingness to cooperate in the ENB. ABAD demonstrates (1) how farmers’ attitudes toward profits, risk aversion, environmental protection, social interaction, and irrigation expansion explain the dynamics of the water demand and (2) how the conservation program may paradoxically lead to the rebound phenomenon whereby the water demand may increase after decreasing through modernized irrigation systems. Through the ABAD model analysis, economic factors are found to dominantly control possible rebounds. Based on the insights gained via the model analysis, it is discussed that several strategies, including community participation and water restrictions, can be adopted to avoid the rebound phenomenon in irrigation systems. Fostering farmers’ awareness about the average water use in their community could be a means to avoid the rebound phenomenon through community participation. Also, another strategy to avoid the rebound phenomenon could be to reassign water allocations to reduce farmers’ water rights. The ENSH model showed that (1) socio-political factors (i.e., relative political stability and foreign direct investment) can explain two historical trends (i.e., (a) fluctuations in Ethiopia’s willingness to cooperate between 1983 and 2009 and (b) a decreasing Ethiopia’s willingness to cooperate between 2009 and 2016); (2) the 2008 food crisis (i.e., Sudan’s food gap) may account for Sudan recovering its willingness to cooperate; and (3) Egypt’s political (in)stability plays a role in its willingness to cooperate. The outcomes of this research can provide valuable insights to support policymakers for the long-term sustainability of water planning. This research investigates two main socio-hydrological phenomena at different spatial scales: the agricultural rebound phenomenon at a small geographical scale and the conflict and cooperation phenomena at a large geographical scale. The emergence of these phenomena can be a complex resultant of interaction and feedback mechanisms between the social system at the individual, institutional, and society levels and the hydrological system. Through developing quantitative socio-hydrological models, this research investigates the feedback mechanisms that may lead to the rebound phenomenon at a small scale and the conflict and cooperation phenomenon at a large scale. Finally, the research shows how these socio-hydrological models can be used for sustainable water management to avoid negative long-term consequences.
Agricultural Water Management, 2020
Agricultural water markets play a crucial role in arid and semi-arid regions by reallocating water and transferring it from low-value uses to high-value uses. Several markets for surface water and groundwater are functioning all over the world to increase economic well-being of farmers and meet environmental flow requirements. However, there is not a consensus on precisely which market mechanism may be more environmentally and economically beneficial. This study presents an agent-based groundwater market model to analyze the economic and hydrologic impacts of three market mechanisms, designed based on the cap-and-trade scheme, that differ in the price discovery process, two of which are uniform price double-auction and the third is a discriminatory price double-auction. This study also analyzes the hydrologic and economic impacts of water buyback programs. Modeling results, applied to Rafsanjan Plain, an arid region in Iran, show that the discriminatory price double-auction is the most hydrologically and economically advantageous mechanism since it reduces the annual water level drawdown by 38 % and brings about more profits for farmers in comparison with other market mechanisms. Furthermore, the buyback program effectively reduces the inequality of wealth distribution (Gini Index) and increases farmers' net benefit while reducing their surplus.
Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems, 2012
This paper presents the development of a multi-agent model for simulating realistic water-sharing scenarios and a means of studying and assessing an ecosystem's viability by taking under consideration environmental and socio-economical parameters. To account for farmer self-lucrative behaviours, exhibited due to the economic pressure exerted on them, the proposed model imposes constraints such as the lack of interfarmer communication and observation. Additionally, a self-adaptive learning algorithm is proposed that compensates for such self-lucrative behaviours, despite the imposed constraints. The proposed model was calibrated using data derived from the Lake Koronia ecosystem, and experimental results provided statistical and objective figures of merit for assessing typical irrigation policies under study. As it will be demonstrated, the developed model is a viable means for assessing irrigation policies, and the proposed self-adaptive learning method is a means of guiding behaviours towards the viability of both the resource and its users.
Optimizing competitive uses of water for irrigation and fisheries
Fuel and Energy Abstracts, 2011
Choosing the appropriate reservoir water management strategy can be difficult when the water has multiple uses. This study examines this problem for reservoir managers where water use involves irrigation and fisheries. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model is developed to facilitate reservoir management, using a case study illustration for southern Vietnam. The model includes the response of rice and fish yields to key factors including reservoir water levels, the timing and quantity of water release, and climatic conditions. The model also accounts for variation in rainfall patterns, irrigation requirements, and the demand for low water levels during the fish harvest season. Three production scenarios are examined where the reservoir's water is used for: only producing rice (scenario 1), only producing fish (scenario 2), and producing rice and fish (scenario 3). Key findings are: (1) for scenario 1, adequate water should be released to meet rice growing water requirements and residual water should be stored as a source of water in case of low rainfall, (2) for scenario 2, sufficient water needs to be released prior to the fish harvest to maximize this harvest; and (3) for scenario 3, water should be released prior to fish harvest, but sufficient water should remain to satisfy the water requirements of rice. When the reservoir is managed for joint production of rice and fish, net benefits are 6% greater than when the reservoir is managed solely for rice production. The SDP model developed in this paper could be adapted and applied to other multiple-use resources such as forests, river basins, and land.
The sharing of water between society and ecosystems: from conflict to catchmentbased comanagement
… of the Royal …, 2003
Human uses of freshwater resources are increasing rapidly as the world population rises. As this happens, less water is left to support aquatic and associated ecosystems. To minimize future human water shortages and undesirable environmental impacts, more equitable sharing of water resources between society and nature is required. This will require physical quantities and social values to be placed on both human and aquatic ecosystem requirements. Current water valuation systems are dominated by economic values and this paper illustrates new quantification and valuation methods that take more account of human well-being and environmental impacts.
Global and Planetary Change, 2013
Integrated water management Amudarya river delta wetlands ecosystem services multipurpose water use The wetlands of the Amudarya River delta in Uzbekistan provide valuable ecosystem services to the local human population which has suffered severely from the loss of the Aral Sea, desertification and the post-soviet socioeconomic transition. The region is also particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change as a recent severe drought has shown. In this contribution, we assess the potential and implications of incorporating environmental flows into management of the Amudarya River for improving the provision of wetland ecosystem services and enhancing resilience of the social-ecological system to river runoff uncertainty. Our assessment is based on analyses of 1) the current vulnerability of deltaic wetlands to years of low water availability, 2) expected regional climate change and its impact on water flows to the wetlands, and 3) alternative water use options to enhance environmental flows under a changing climate. The results provide a ranking of these options with respect to their benefits for the provision of environmental flows and implications for agriculture. Their realization, however, poses challenges that cannot be tackled by technical interventions of redistribution and efficiency increase alone but call for institutional changes and moves towards multipurpose water use. The diversification of impacts and livelihood options would allow enhancing the resilience of the social-ecological system to climate or socio-politically induced changes in water flow.
Central Asian Journal of Water Research, 2021
Covering increasing water demand for competitive uses with limited resources is becoming one of the most challenging water management issues. The effects are more evident in arid areas, where conflicts are more likely to occur. Such an example is Urumqi County, China; Urumqi River is the main water supply source, and in order to balance the upstream agricultural water demand and the downstream urban water demand, the government imposed fallow measures. The region is traditionally a rural area with high production expectations, however, urban water demand is continuously increasing over the last decades, following the population and urbanization trends. Irrigation needs are covered from the river, during the summer period, creating seasonal demand peaks. The fallow measures aim to sustain agriculture and the government defines which farmers will fallow each year. This study uses a questionnaire survey to examine the farmers' willingness to continue fallow, and the fallow period preference; both examined for the first time so far. The driving factors are used as variables to analyze and describe the preferences through regression models. A non-negligible portion of farmers highly depend on agriculture and want to cultivate. The feasibility of satisfying their needs through better water management is examined through a coupled WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning) model. Combining econometric and hydrological tools is a novel element. The results are encouraging, with significant insights on the current water management policy, the potential of diversified fallow systems, and the achievement of sustainable and socially acceptable planning.
A coupled agronomic‐economic model to consider allocation of brackish irrigation water
1] In arid and semiarid regions, irrigation water is scarce and often contains high concentrations of salts. To reduce negative effects on crop yields, the irrigated amounts must include water for leaching and therefore exceed evapotranspiration. The leachate (drainage) water returns to water sources such as rivers or groundwater aquifers and increases their level of salinity and the leaching requirement for irrigation water of any sequential user. We develop a conceptual sequential (upstream-downstream) model of irrigation that predicts crop yields and water consumption and tracks the water flow and level of salinity along a river dependent on irrigation management decisions. The model incorporates an agro-physical model of plant response to environmental conditions including feedbacks. For a system with limited water resources, the model examines the impacts of water scarcity, salinity and technically inefficient application on yields for specific crop, soil, and climate conditions. Moving beyond the formulation of a conceptual frame, we apply the model to the irrigation of Capsicum annum on Arava Sandy Loam soil. We show for this case how water application could be distributed between upstream and downstream plots or farms. We identify those situations where it is beneficial to trade water from upstream to downstream farms (assuming that the upstream farm holds the water rights). We find that water trade will improve efficiency except when loss levels are low. We compute the marginal value of water, i.e., the price water would command on a market, for different levels of water scarcity, salinity and levels of water loss. Citation: Ben-Gal, A., H.-P. Weikard, S. H. H. Shah, and S. E. A. T. M. van derZee (2013), A coupled agronomic-economic model to consider allocation of brackish irrigation water, Water Resour.