Effect of Future Climate Change on Wheat Yield and Water Use Efficiency Under Semi-arid Conditions as Predicted by APSIM-Wheat Model (original) (raw)
Related papers
Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research, 2015
Climate change and technology development can affect crop productivity in future conditions. Precise estimation of crops yield change as affected by climate and technology in the future is an effective approach for management strategies. The aim of this study was to estimate the impacts of climate change, technology improvement, CO 2 enrichment, and overall impacts on wheat yield under future conditions. Wheat yield was projected for three future is time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) compared to baseline year (2011) under two scenarios of IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) including SRES-A2 as regional economic scenario and SRES-B1 as global environmental scenario in Azarbaijan region (NW of Iran). A linear regression model, describing the relationship between wheat yield and historical year, was developed to investigate technology development effect. The decision support system for agro-technology transfer (DSSAT4.5) was used to evaluate the influence of climate change on wheat yield. The most positive effects were found for wheat yield as affected by technology in all studied regions. Under future climate change, the SRES projected a decrease in yield, especially in West Azarbaijan region. When the effects of elevated CO 2 were considered, all regions resulted to increase in wheat yield. Considering all components effect in comparison with baseline (2011), yield increase would range from 5% to 38% across all times, scenarios and regions. According to our findings, it seems that we may expect a higher yield of wheat in NW Iran in the future if technology development continues as well as past years.
Agriculture
It is very important to determine the irrigation water requirement (IR) of crops for optimal irrigation scheduling under the changing climate. This study aimed to investigate the impact of climate change on the future IR and yield of three strategic crops (winter wheat, barley, fodder maize) in the semi-arid Qazvin Plateau, Iran, for the periods 2016–2040, 2041–2065, and 2066–2090. The Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2), applying IPCC scenarios rcp2.6, rcp4.5, and rcp8.5, was used to project the monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and monthly precipitation of the region. The results indicated that the maximum and minimum temperatures will increase by 1.7 °C and 1.2 °C, respectively, under scenario rcp8.5 in the period 2066–2090. The precipitation will decrease (1%–13%) under all scenarios in all months of the future periods, except in August, September, and October. The IR of winter wheat and barley will increase by 38%–79% under scenarios rcp2.6 and rcp8.5 in the future per...
Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences, 2024
In AquaCrop model was used to calibrate and verify the performance of the winter wheat crop in south of Iraq Al-Suwaira Research Station using data recorded in period 1/1/2008 and 31/12/2017. The results showed an increase in both annual and monsoon rains at the mid and end century periods for both RCP4.5 and REP8.5 scenarios implementing model GFDL-ESM2M. The annual and monsoon rains decreased in the EC-Earth model for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, while increased slightly in the CNRM-CM5 model under RCP4.5 and dropped with RCP8.5. Highest yield was recorded at the base period (2.36 ton/hectare) during the simulation period. The water productivity increased compared to the base period 2040-2050, while it was equal for both base period and the period 2020-2030 and in the RCP8.5 scenario.
European Journal of Agronomy, 2020
Climate change in China would cause change into precipitation patterns and rise in temperature. The assessment of climate change impact on Chinese wheat production is needed for both rainfed and irrigated farming in order to maintain wheat self-sufficiency and to assure future food demand. The current study assesses the future trends of wheat yield in Guanzhong Plain, China by employing the calibrated Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)-wheat model and using the downscaled daily climate projections for 32 general circulation models (GCMs), under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Simulations were carried out for rainfed cropping and various levels of irrigation for future time windows of 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s. The climate projections show an overall gradual increase in future temperature and precipitation for the region. It was found that the climate change would shorten the growing period of winter wheat, as the flowering shifted back on an average by 8-18 days and 10-34 days, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Similarly, maturity date shifted back on an average by 8-16 days and 10-32 days under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. An improvement in the future rainfed winter wheat yield was noted for all simulation time periods, and the average yield increase was 6.75 %, 21.5 % and 26.5 % for 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, respectively. Irrigation provided at a threshold of 10 % and 20 % of plant available water capacity (PAWC) was found suitable to be used as supplementary irrigation, and it resulted an overall improvement of 27 % in rainfed yield. Any increase in yield for irrigation provision beyond 20 % PAWC threshold was not statistically significant. It was found that the optimum irrigation amount with high water use efficiency (WUE) would range from 90 mm to 132 mm and up to 56 % of water can be saved by avoiding irrigation with thresholds over 20 % PAWC. These results could help policy makers and farmers to adapt accordingly in future, ensuring the sustainable and improved wheat production in this region. 1. Introduction Categorical changes in global climatic conditions and their impact on agriculture has become a widely discussed issue around the world. These variations in climate are generally associated with the global warming, which is caused by the axiomatic increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The impacts of climate change could be both detrimental and beneficial for agriculture, mainly depending on the region and cultivar type (Abraham and Dollison, 2019). Wheat, which is grown at the largest scale all over the world (FAO, 2014), will be largely affected with the change in the future climate. For example, one degree (°C) increase in global temperature might lead to 6% yield decline in most of the wheat growing parts of the world (Asseng et al., 2015; Liu et al., 2016). However, in some parts of the world wheat might also benefit from the warming climate. For instance, Sommer et al. (2013) estimated 12 % increase in the wheat yields in central Asian regions,
2011
Climate change can impact hydrological cycle through changes in precipitation pattern and amount, temperature, evapotranspiration, and run off. Such changes in climatic parameters can subsequently impact agricultural crop production. This study has been conducted with the aim to find relationships between crop yield and evapotranspiration with historical data (1984-2005) and predict crop yield under expected climate changes in the upcoming years in the northeast of Iran (kashafrood basin). Four major crops in this region were selected such as sugar beet, cotton, been, and chickpea. The future precipitation and temperature data are simulated by downscaling outputs of global climate model HadCM3 (A2 scenario) with ASD (Automated Statistical Downscaling) model. Projected temperature under A2 Scenario showed increasing trend for all three time periods. Projected annual precipitation increased by 4.64%, 5.41%, and 2.22% for (2010-2039), (2040-2069) and (2070-2099), respectively. To calcu...
Modeling the Irrigation Schedule on Wheat under Climate Change Conditions
The effect of climate change on wheat grown under sprinkler irrigation was studied using previous data of two growing seasons (2008/09 and 2009/10); these data were used to calibrate CropSyst model. Furthermore, a field experiment was conducted at El-Giza Governorate in 2010/11 growing season; the data of this experiment (2010/11 season) was used to validate the CropSyst model. The treatments of the validation experiment composed of two wheat cultivars (Sakha 93 and Giza 168) and four irrigation treatments (0.6, 0.8, 1.0 and 1.2 of ETc). Two climate change scenarios (A2 and B2) were used to assess the consequences of climate change on wheat yield in 2060. A new irrigation schedule developed by Basic Irrigation Schedule (BIS) model was used to improve water productivity under climate change conditions. The results showed that CropSyst model was able to predict wheat yield with high degree of accuracy for both calibration and validation procedures. The results also indicated that, in general, the yield of both cultivars will be decrease under climate change; however the reduction was lower for Sakha 93, as compared with Giza 168. The application of the new irrigation schedule under climate change conditions increased water productivity under the two climate change scenarios, compared with irrigation amount resulted from 0.8, 1.0 and 1.2 of ETc, for both wheat cultivars. Moreover, Sakha 93 gave the highest water productivity. Our results suggested that if we want to reduce yield losses for wheat under climate change conditions and increase water productivity, Sakha 93 should be cultivated and BIS model should be used to schedule irrigation.
Engineering and Technology Journal
The effect of climate change on net irrigation water requirements and crop productivity was investigated. Barley has the most influence on climate change. An increase in the quantity of water required for irrigation for the common crops under climate change. Climate change has negative effects on all crops' yield under different climate change scenarios. This study aims to predict the effect of climate change on net irrigation water requirements (NIWR) and agricultural productivity from five common crops (wheat, barley, summer maize, and sorghum) in the Al-Najaf Governorate in Iraq. GFDL-ESM2M mode was used to predict the lower and upper temp and precipitation for two time periods (2020-2080) with 30 years for two periods (P1 and P2) under representative concentrations paths (RCP 2.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5). The CROPWAT model is used to determine NIWR, and the extreme learning model was used to estimate agricultural yields using previous crop yield production and weather data, supported vectors machine (SVM) is executed as a Machines Learns algorithm. Results showed NIWR increment to consider cropping owing to climate change. Barley is the crop most affected by climate change under the (RCP2.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5) scenarios, with increasing crop water requirements (NIWR) of (22%, 23%, and 24%) for P1 and (23%, 24%, and 29%) for P2, respectively. Summer maize is the crop least affected by climate change under all climate change scenarios, with increasing crop water requirements of (1%, 2%, and 4%) for P1 and (1%, 2%, and 5% for P2. Climate change negatively affects the crop yield of all crops under the different climate change scenarios. The findings of this study could be used as a guide to developing adaptation strategies for dealing with potential changes in water availability and agricultural water productivity due to climate change.
Natural Hazards
Maintaining sustainability in rainfed wheat production under changing climate is a grave concern for food security in Algeria. This study aims to assess the impact of future climate change on rainfed wheat yield in the semiarid Eastern High Plains (Setif and Bordj Bou Arreridj (BBA)) in Algeria using AquaCrop model. For this purpose, the EURO-CORDEX climate projections by 2035-2064 and 2065-2094 were downscaled using ICHEC_KNMI model under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The crop model predicted wheat yield increase by 82-95% and 77-118% at Setif and by 8-16% and 133-135% at BBA under the RCP 4.5 (2035-64 and 2065-94) and RCP 8.5 (2035-64 and 2065-94) scenarios, respectively, compared to the yield of the baseline period of 1981-2010. Future yield improvement is due to the fertilizing effect of the elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentration in the atmosphere, which offsets the negative impacts of rising temperature, decreasing precipitations and the net solar radiation. The expected increase in yield is much higher under RCP 8.5 compared to RCP 4.5 because CO 2 concentration is higher under RCP 8.5. The model predicted an increase in wheat water productivity because of the expected decrease in evapotranspiration losses. To adapt rainfed wheat to future climate change in the study area, early sowing in mid-October provides better yields because it allows the wheat crop to take more benefits from increased precipitation during the vegetative development stage and to avoid the spring warming temperature.
Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2019
Water is the most important limiting factor of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cropping systems in semi-arid conditions of Southern Punjab. A two-year field experiment (comprising of cotton-wheat cropping) was conducted in Vehari (Southern Punjab) to calibrate and validate a DSSAT model in the climatic conditions of 1 × CO2 concentration (conc.) (current). The model simulation during calibration was good with errors up to 4.7, 4.4, 10.1, 6.4 and −5.4% for days to anthesis, days to maturity, total dry matter, yield and HI, respectively for the cotton-wheat cropping system. During model validation, the error percentages were also under reasonable limits. So, the model was run under 2 × CO2 conc. (future) conditions and it showed a difference of −7.3 to 19.7% anthesis days, maturity days, total dry matter, grain yield, crop ET and WUEGY with respect to current CO2 concentration. Simulation by DSSAT showed that the cotton cultivar MNH-886 and wheat cultiv...
Potential impact of climate change on rainfed wheat production in Iran
Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science, 2006
Mean monthly weather data values from 1968-2000 for 12 major rainfed wheat production areas in northwest and western Iran were used with a climate model, United Kingdom Meteorological Organization (UKMO), to predict the impact of climate change on rainfed wheat production for years 2025 and 2050. The crop simulation model, World Food Study (WOFOST, v 7.1), at CO 2 concentrations of 425 and 500 ppm and rising air temperature of 2.7-4.78C, projected a significant rainfed wheat yield reduction in 2025 and 2050. Average yield reduction was 18 and 24% for 2025 and 2050, respectively. The yield reduction was related to a rainfall deficit (8.3-17.7%) and shortening of the wheat growth period (8-36 d). Cultivated land used for rainfed wheat production under the climate change scenarios may be reduced by 15-40%. Potential improvements in wheat adaptation for climate change in Iran may include breeding new cultivars and changing agronomic practices like sowing dates.