COVID-19 prediction models: a systematic literature review (original) (raw)
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Can medical practitioners rely on prediction models for COVID-19? A systematic review
Evidence-Based Dentistry
Aim This systematic review sought to assess and scrutinise the validity and practicality of published and preprint reports of prediction models for the diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in patients with suspected infection, for prognosis of patients with COVID-19, and for identifying individuals in the general population at increased risk of infection with COVID-19 or being hospitalised with the illness. Data sources A systematic, online search was conducted in PubMed and Embase. In order to do so, the authors used Ovid as the host platform for these two databases and also investigated bioRxiv, medRxiv and arXiv as repositories for the preprints of studies. A public living systematic review list of COVID-19-related studies was used as the baseline searching platform (Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine's repository for living evidence on COVID-19). Study selection Studies which developed or validated a multivariable prediction model related to COVID-19 patients' data (individual level data) were included. The authors did not put any restrictions on the models included in their study regarding the model setting, prediction horizon or outcomes. Data extraction and synthesis Checklists of critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies (CHARMS) and prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST) were used to guide developing of a standardised data extraction form. Each model's predictive performance was extracted by using any summaries of discrimination and calibration. All these steps were done according to the aspects of the transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD) and preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA). Results One hundred and forty-five prediction models (107 studies) were selected for data extraction and critical appraisal. The most common predictors of diagnosis and prognosis of COVID-19 were age, body temperature, lymphocyte count and lung imaging characteristics. Influenza-like symptoms and neutrophil count were regularly predictive in diagnostic models, while comorbidities, sex, C-reactive protein and creatinine were common prognostic items. C-indices (a measure of discrimination for models) ranged from 0.73 to 0.81 in prediction models for the general population, from 0.65 to more than 0.99 in diagnostic models, and from 0.68 to 0.99 in the prognostic models. All the included studies were reported to have high risks of bias. Conclusions Overall, this study did not recommend applying any of the predictive models in clinical practice yet. High risk of bias, reporting problems and (probably) optimistic reported performances are all among the reasons for the previous conclusion. Prompt actions regarding accurate data sharing and international collaborations are required to achieve more rigorous prediction models for COVID-19. Commentary The paper aimed to review and critically assess the reliability and performance of current prediction models for COVID-19 while following the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) statement. The authors succeeded in representing a coherent, up-to-date and systematically written paper according to PRISMA. Key findings of this study are represented as a concept map in Figure 1. Studies from PubMed or Embase were considered as eligible if they developed or validated a multivariable model or estimation system, based on individual participant level data, to predict any COVID-19-related outcome. All epidemiological studies which sought to model disease transmission or case fatality rates, diagnostic test accuracy or predictor finding were excluded. The authors also contacted other studies' author teams for non-public results which fitted into their scope (two studies). Studies that were publicly available but not listed on the living systematic review list were further added to the data source (six studies). Since multiple rounds of searching and literature assessment have been performed, from the first round onwards, the gathered information was initially assessed using a text analysis tool developed by artificial intelligence to prioritise sensitivity. The authors included 275 out of 14,217 titles to be reviewed by abstract and full text screening. From these, 145 prediction models (107 studies) were selected for data extraction and critical appraisal. These prediction models consisted of the following: 91 diagnostic models for verifying COVID-19 in suspected patients (both for the presence or severity of illness based on either medical imaging or diagnosing disease severity); 50 models for predicting the prognosis
Identifying Techniques and Models for COVID-19 Prediction
Journal of Iranian Medical Council
Background: Technologies can predict various aspects of COVID-19, such as early prediction of cases and those at higher risks of severe disease. Predictions will yield numerous benefits and can result in a lower number of cases and deaths. Herein, we aimed to review the published models and techniques that predict various COVID-19 outcomes and identify their role in the management of the COVID-19. Methods: This study was a review identifying the prediction models and techniques for management of the COVID-19. Web of Science, Scopus, and PubMed were searched from December 2019 until September 4th, 2021. In addition, Google Scholar was also searched. Results: We have reviewed 59 studies. The authors reviewed prediction techniques in COVID-19 disease management. Studies in these articles have shown that in the section medical setting, most of the subjects were inpatients. In the purpose of the prediction section, mortality was also the most item. In the type of data/predict section, ba...
Objective To review and critically appraise published and preprint reports of models that aim to predict either (i) presence of existing COVID-19 infection, (ii) future complications in individuals already diagnosed with COVID-19, or (iii) models to identify individuals at high risk for COVID-19 in the general population. Design Rapid systematic review and critical appraisal of prediction models for diagnosis or prognosis of COVID-19 infection. Data sources PubMed, EMBASE via Ovid, Arxiv, medRxiv and bioRxiv until 24th March 2020. Study selection Studies that developed or validated a multivariable COVID-19 related prediction model. Two authors independently screened titles, abstracts and full text. Data extraction Data from included studies were extracted independently by at least two authors based on the CHARMS checklist, and risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST. Data were extracted on various domains including the participants, predictors, outcomes, data analysis, and predictio...
Clinical Predictive Models for COVID-19: Systematic Study (Preprint)
2020
Background: COVID-19 is a rapidly emerging respiratory disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. Due to the rapid human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2, many health care systems are at risk of exceeding their health care capacities, in particular in terms of SARS-CoV-2 tests, hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and mechanical ventilators. Predictive algorithms could potentially ease the strain on health care systems by identifying those who are most likely to receive a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, be hospitalized, or admitted to the ICU. Objective: The aim of this study is to develop, study, and evaluate clinical predictive models that estimate, using machine learning and based on routinely collected clinical data, which patients are likely to receive a positive SARS-CoV-2 test or require hospitalization or intensive care. Methods: Using a systematic approach to model development and optimization, we trained and compared various types of machine learning models, including logistic regression, neural networks, support vector machines, random forests, and gradient boosting. To evaluate the developed models, we performed a retrospective evaluation on demographic, clinical, and blood analysis data from a cohort of 5644 patients. In addition, we determined which clinical features were predictive to what degree for each of the aforementioned clinical tasks using causal explanations. Results: Our experimental results indicate that our predictive models identified patients that test positive for SARS-CoV-2 a priori at a sensitivity of 75% (95% CI 67%-81%) and a specificity of 49% (95% CI 46%-51%), patients who are SARS-CoV-2 positive that require hospitalization with 0.92 area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC; 95% CI 0.81-0.98), and patients who are SARS-CoV-2 positive that require critical care with 0.98 AUC (95% CI 0.95-1.00). Conclusions: Our results indicate that predictive models trained on routinely collected clinical data could be used to predict clinical pathways for COVID-19 and, therefore, help inform care and prioritize resources.
Frontiers in Health Informatics
Introduction: Given, widespread COVID-19 across the world a comprehensive literature review can be used to forecast COVID-19 peak in the countries. The present protocol study aimed to explore epidemic peak prediction models in communicable diseases.Material and Methods: This protocol study was conducted based on Arksey and O'Malley's. This framework encompasses purpose and hypothesis, modeling, model achievements aspects. A systematic search of English in PubMed was conducted to identify relevant studies. In the pilot step, two reviewers independently extracted the variables from 10 eligible studies to develop a primary list of variables and a data extraction form. In the second step, all eligible studies were assessed by researchers. In the third step, two data extraction forms were combined. The data were extracted and categories were created based on frequency. Qualitative and quantitative methods were used to synthesize the extracted data.Results: The current study were ...
2020
Since the beginning of the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV disease (Covid-19) in December 2019, there has been an exponential number of studies using diverse modelling techniques to assess the dynamics of transmission of the disease, predict its future course and determine the impact of different control measures. In this study, we conducted a global systematic literature review to summarize trends in the modelling techniques used for Covid-19 from January 1st 2020 to June 30th 2020. We further examined the reliability and correctness of predictions by comparing predicted and observed values for cumulative cases and deaths. From an initial 2170 peer-reviewed articles and preprints found with our defined keywords, 148 were fully analyzed. We found that most studies on the modelling of Covid-19 were from Asia (52.70%) and Europe (25%). Most of them used compartmental models (SIR and SEIR) (57%) and statistical models (growth models and time series) (28%) while few used artificial intelligen...
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Background: Forecasting the behavior of epidemic outbreaks is vital in public health. This makes it possible to anticipate the planning and organization of the health system, as well as possible restrictive or preventive measures. During the COVID-19 pandemic, this need for prediction has been crucial. This paper attempts to characterize the alternative models that were applied in the first wave of this pandemic context, trying to shed light that could help to understand them for future practical applications. Methods: A systematic literature search was performed in standardized bibliographic repertoires, using keywords and Boolean operators to refine the findings, and selecting articles according to the main PRISMA 2020 statement recommendations. Results: After identifying models used throughout the first wave of this pandemic (between March and June 2020), we begin by examining standard data-driven epidemiological models, including studies applying models such as SIR (Susceptible-...
Clinical Predictive Models for COVID-19: Systematic Study
arXiv (Cornell University), 2020
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a rapidly emerging respiratory disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Due to the rapid human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2, many healthcare systems are at risk of exceeding their healthcare capacities, in particular in terms of SARS-CoV-2 tests, hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) beds and mechanical ventilators. Predictive algorithms could potentially ease the strain on healthcare systems by identifying those who are most likely to receive a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, be hospitalised or admitted to the ICU. Here, we study clinical predictive models that estimate, using machine learning and based on routinely collected clinical data, which patients are likely to receive a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, require hospitalisation or intensive care. To evaluate the predictive performance of our models, we perform a retrospective evaluation on clinical and blood analysis data from a cohort of 5644 patients. Our experimental results indicate that our predictive models identify (i) patients that test positive for SARS-CoV-2 a priori at a sensitivity of 75% (95% CI: 67%, 81%) and a specificity of 49% (95% CI: 46%, 51%), (ii) SARS-CoV-2 positive patients that require hospitalisation with 0.92 AUC (95% CI: 0.81, 0.98), and (iii) SARS-CoV-2 positive patients that require critical care with 0.98 AUC (95% CI: 0.95, 1.00). In addition, we determine which clinical features are predictive to what degree for each of the aforementioned clinical tasks. Our results indicate that predictive models trained on routinely collected clinical data could be used to predict clinical pathways for COVID-19, and therefore help inform care and prioritise resources.
Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19): A Survey of Analysis, Modeling and Recommendations
2020
COVID-19 has created anxiety not only in individuals but also in health organizations, and countries worldwide. Not a single industry is left un-influenced and loss is being estimated in billions of dollars. The widespread of this pandemic disease has challenged researchers all over the world. Some of the researchers are working to invent its cure while, others are applying computing technologies to stop its spread, by analyzing and identifying patterns for prediction and forecasting. This is by no doubt the hottest area of research for the last 100 years. This survey has targeted the research published in computing sub-domains to combat the pandemic. The survey has clustered the scientific efforts into logical groups: surveillance, metrological effects, social media analytics, image processing and business and economy, analysis and modeling. It will serve as a leading source for the followings: researchers who want to identify what has been achieved in different computing sub-domai...
Development and Validation of a Web-Based Severe COVID-19 Risk Prediction Model
The American Journal of the Medical Sciences, 2021
Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre-including this research content-immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.