Storage Projection for Reservoir Systems (original) (raw)

Computer applications in water resources, 1985

Abstract

Two methods are studied for determining the probability distribution of future levels of storage in a reservoir system: transient analysis and Gould's probability matrix method. In transient analysis, historical monthly inflow and net evaporation sequences of 1 to 5 years length are routed through the reservoir system with fixed initial storage, monthly demand pattern, and operating policy to determine the probability distribution of storage in annual time increments for each reservoir and for the total system. In Gould's method, the annual flows are assumed independent and the steady-state probability distribution of storage is found using the same hydrologic data, demand pattern, and operating policy. These procedures are applied to the six-reservoir Highland Lakes System on the Lower Colorado River, Texas. The time reliability of supply of the specified annual demand is evaluated as a function of initial storage.

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