Population Dynamics and Household Saving: Evidence from the Philippines (original) (raw)
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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2005
Life cycle savings is proposed as one explanation for much of the increase in savings and economic growth in Asia. The association between the age composition of a nation's population and its savings rate, observed within 16 Asian countries from 1952 to 1992, is reestimated here to be less than a quarter the size reported in a seminal study, which assumed lagged savings is exogenous. Specification tests as well as common sense imply, moreover, that lagged savings is likely to be endogenous, and when estimated accordingly there remains no significant dependence of savings on the age composition, measured in several ways. Research should consider lifetime savings as a substitute for children, and model the causes for the decline in fertility which changes the age compositions and could thereby account for savings and growth in Asia.
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Review of Economics and Statistics, 2000
The lifecycle theory of saving and consumption predicts that changes in an economy's rate of economic growth will affect its aggregate saving rate by changing the lifetime resources of younger people relative to older people. However, studies that track the saving behavior of cohorts of household heads over time as they age have yielded estimates of age-saving profiles that are too flat for growth to have much effect on the aggregate saving rate. One problem with the cohort approach is that multigenerational households are common in many counties, and the age-saving profiles of households may be quite different from the age-saving profiles of individuals that make up households. In this paper, we propose a method for estimating individual age-saving profiles using household data. This method is applied to data from Taiwan and Thailand. We find that the individual method yields results that are more favorable to the lifecycle model. These results imply that changes in the rate of economic growth may in some circumstances have large effects on the aggregate saving rate. However, the size and sign of these effects depends on the rate of economic growth and the rate of population growth, and in many cases the effect of growth on saving is small.
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This paper has two parts. The first part presents and discusses the 2011 Philippine National Transfer Accounts (NTA) estimates for selected flow accounts components, the most recent estimates available for the country, and compares the 2011 to the 1991 and 1999 estimates. The second part, also covering the years 1991, 1999, and 2011, examines change in Philippine population age structure, discusses economic gains from population change and the implications of economic lifecycle change on the economic gain. In the first part, more recent information about the economic lifecycle of Filipinos is provided from the 2011 NTA: age profiles of consumption and labor income (and their components) for the year 2011, and which population age groups incurred lifecycle deficit and the sizes of the aggregate deficits. The 2011 Philippine NTA national level estimates for per capita consumption and labor income age profiles are also compared to corresponding components of the 1991 and 1999 NTA estim...
What are the Demographic Determinants of Savings? An Analysis on Transition Economies (1993-2013)
Procedia Economics and Finance, 2016
In recent years, there have been many discussions about savings and growth especially for developing countries. The saving concept has an important and crucial place in all economies. Indeed, the importance of savings leads to the discussion of determinants of savings in the literature. Moreover, with an awareness of the determinants of savings, the government have to put effort for increasing savings with using policies and precautions on their institutions. In this point, raising the savings of a household, which is an important element of economic life, has gained an crucial role. However, it is clear that all factors which have impacts on it should be known to solve this issue. Narrowing into transition economies, which transited from a planned economic system to market economy, the structure of savings has changed from public funds to private savings. It is clear that saving habits cannot change or adapt in the short term, in fact this paper aims to put forward recommendations to policymakers in transition economies. In this paper, it has been investigated how demographic determinants are effective on saving ratios using panel data analysis between 1993 and 2013 on 20 transition economies. The chosen demographic and economic variables are dependency ratio (total, youth and old), GDP per capita growth, population density, urban population of percentage of total population, female participation of labour force, unemployment rate.
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The Indonesian demographic changes during 1970-2012 had changed the age structure of the population significantly. The symptoms that appear are the decrease in rate fertility and mortality. Indonesia, likewise in most of the countries experienced declining of fertility and mortality rate. This will be followed by some positive impact on acceleration of economic. The decline in fertility rates has become one of the causes of the increased economic performance in several countries. The decline in fertility rate will lead to the increase of the percentage of the working-age population / WAP (15-64 year). The decline in the mortality rate due to population health, sanitation and nutrition, and healthy behaviours have resulted in an increase in life expectancy and productivity of labor. In the newly industrialized countries (NICs) as well as some developing countries shows that the decline in fertility has led to the increase in economic growth. This is possible because burden the 'y...