Determinants of Exports in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis (1970-2006) (original) (raw)
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Determinants of Pakistan’s Exports: An Econometric Analysis
Comparative Economic Research
The research investigated the determinants of Pakistan’s exports by using time series data from 1990–2016. Certain econometric tests were also applied to check cointegration among variables. A unit root test was used to check the stationarity of selected variables. After the stationarity of the data, a vector error correction model is used to estimate the effect of regressors, like foreign direct investment, gross domestic product, employment level, and consumption expenditures on a dependent variable, i.e. exports in the short run. The result shows the positive relationships that foreign direct investment, gross domestic product and employment level have on exports, and the adverse impact of consumption expenditures on the dependent variable. The study uses Johansen’s cointegration test for the long run. The results show that all the variables are co-integrated in the long run. It is suggested that the government should encourage foreign direct investment and gross domestic product...
This research investigates the Empirical Analysis of Export Performance and its impact on Economy of Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis It is taken as proxy for share of investment in GDP. It is taken as %age of GDP. Data on real exports is taken in current 2005 US$. The trend and descriptive statistics of defense expenditures in Pakistan from1990-2015. It was revealed that Pakistan growth rate was 6.3% per annum while other low income countries grew at an average annual rate of 4% in 1980s. The share of exports in GDP increased to 13% in 1990s. This increase was due to different policies taken by Pakistan such as establishment of two export processing zones, rebates on different items, excise and sales tax rebates, and tax relief for exporters etc in mid 1980s. In 1988 Government of Pakistan has also launched macroeconomic Adjustment program to improve trade policy, fiscal policy and deregulation process.
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Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth of Pakistan
ABSTRACT The nature of the relationship between exports and country’s economic growth has been one of the most debated topic in the recent past, yet with little consensus. Central to this debate is the question of whether strong economic performance is export-led or growth driven. This question is important because the determination of the causal pattern between export and growth has important implications for policy-makers' decisions about the appropriate growth and development strategies and policies to adopt. This paper investigates the causality between exports and economic growth of Pakistan, through the application of econometric technique Granger causality by using real exports of Pakistan, real GDP of Pakistan, and real terms of trade of Pakistan. The results are based on annual data collected from 1960 to 2009. The empirical results from Granger causality technique clearly indicate that there exists unidirectional causality from GDP to exports in Pakistan but not vice versa.
Factors Affecting the Demand Side of Exports: Pakistan Evidence
Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 2013
The aim of this article is to investigate different factors affecting the demand of Pakistani exports. Factors affecting the demand of exports include real effective exchange rate, nominal exchange rate, world production capability and world export price variable. The period of the study is from 1990 to 2010. Data is gathered from various sources including State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi Stock Exchange, Handbook of statistics on Pakistan Economy, Economic Survey of Pakistan and International Financial Statistics (IFS). Two Stage Least Square (2-SLS) Method was applied in the study. Results show that, export demand decreases with increase in Real Effective Exchange Rate. Insignificant relationship was found between the demand of Pakistani exports and export price variable and nominal exchange rate. The study also found positive and significant association between the demand of Pakistani export and World Income.
Long-Run Relationship between Exports and Imports of Pakistan
International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2017
The present study investigates dynamic relationship between exports and imports of Pakistan by using fiscal year data from1948-49 to 2012-13. ARDL co-integration technique has been employed to estimate the relationship and from empirical results, it is concluded that exports and imports are indeed co-integrated or in other words, long run equilibrium relationship does exist between exports and imports of Pakistan. It is further concluded that Pakistan is not violating its international budget constraints. VECM estimation also confirms that exports and imports are co-integrated and coefficient of error correction term indicates that in case of any departure from equilibrium exports adjust back at the speed of 17.147 percent of its last year disequilibrium value and it takes 5.832 years to fade away any impact caused by short term trade imbalances. Results obtained by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) test indicate that bi-directional causal relationship also exists between exports and imports...
Causality between Exports and Economic Growth: Investigating Suitable Trade Policy for Pakistan
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This study investigates causal relationship between GDP and exports for the period of 1975 to 2010. The aim of this study is to check affectivity of export promotion policy adopted by Pakistan during 1990s. Johansen test of Cointegration and Granger Causality employed to determine short run and long run causality. The result of Cointegration reveals existence of one positive cointegrating equation. The result of Causality test show short run and long run causality run from GDP to exports. The result concludes that both in short and long run only growth in production cause exports growth. Government should attempt to develop production side, which in long run develop trade and economy.
The Impact of Exports on Economic Growth of Pakistan and India
Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Research, 2019
The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of exports on economic growth of Pakistan and India for the period of 1990 to 2016. The unit root test namely Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test was used to identify stationarity in the data. The method of Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) was employed to estimate the coefficient of the variables. The FMOLS results exhibit that exports is having positive and significant impact on economic growth in both countries. Moreover, the empirical results reveal that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow and human capital have also positive and significant effect on the economic growth. The findings of this study suggest that policy makers need to make effective policies in order to increase the volume of exports as well as attract direct foreign investment and encourage human capital in order to stimulate economic growth.