Belarus's "Angry" Protests : Still Waters Run Deep (original) (raw)
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A friend in need. Russia on the protests in Belarus, 2020
Due to the dynamic and surprising development of events in Belarus, Russia’s previous tactic –weakening Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s position in order to force further integration with Russia – has had to change. Moscow’s restrained public reaction to the result of the Belarusian elections and Lukashenka’s appeals for help may suggest that in the face of mass protests, the wave of strikes and the initial signs that the ruling elite in Belarus is starting to break up, the Kremlin is considering the various scenarios in the neighbouring republic, including Lukashenka’s possible resignation. Moscow’s support is of key importance for the Belarusian regime, but Russia’s readiness to grant that support to Lukashenka – a difficult partner who now faces the threat of losing power – although considerable, does not seem unconditional. The scope and form of any such support will be the subject of the Kremlin’s calculations; these will be based both on how events in Belarus develop further, and on assessing the potential gains and losses for Moscow in the context of its relations with Minsk, the internal situation in Russia itself, and the attitude of the West. In the short term, Moscow is likely to try, both overtly and covertly, to prevent the uncontrolled collapse of the Belarusian regime, while sounding out possible replacements for Lukashenka and the political consequences thereof. Russia’s priority remains obtaining guarantees that the integration of both countries will be further deepened and Russia’s long-term interests respected.
A Very Belarusian Affair: What Sets the Current Anti-Lukashenka Protests Apart
PONARS Eurasia Policy Memos, 2020
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) Unprecedented mass protests in Belarus against the rigged presidential elections on August 9 continue into their sixth week with no signs of abating. They are massive, tenacious, and draw on a remarkably broad social and geographical base. These qualities, combined with the absence of a single opposition political leader, pose an unprecedented challenge to Europe’s longest-serving ruler, Aliaksandr Lukashenka. These protests also defy easy comparisons with the color revolutions. Despite continued police brutality and intimidation, Belarusian protesters remain resolutely peaceful, insist on the strictly internal nature of this political crisis, and repel charges of nationalism. While Lukashenka shows every determination to fight his people, he is facing a very different nation from the one he has ruled for the past quarter of a century.
Introduction: The Sociology of Belarusian Protest
Slavic Review, 2021
Revolutions and mass protests infuse their participants with a new sense of subjectivity. Breaking with routines, such events are also occasions of heightened curiosity and thirst for knowledge—about the protests themselves and about a society suddenly appearing thrillingly unfamiliar. The ongoing Belarusian protests against the political regime of Aliaksandar Lukashenka are no exception. Erupting on August 9, 2020, in response to egregious electoral fraud and galvanized by a brutal police crackdown that subjected peaceful protesters to mass arrests, violence, and torture, they quickly produced an explosion of analysis and debate that has found a receptive audience among Belarusian citizens and the global academic community alike. The self-organized neighborhood groups emerging out of the first protest wave have invited Belarusian historians and philosophers to give courtyard lectures; field observations and statistical analyses have been shared in Telegram or Facebook groups, at pr...
Making Sense of a Surprise: Perspectives on the 2020 “Belarusian Revolution”
Nationalities Papers
Drawing on three theoretical perspectives—“protest-democracy,” “authoritarian/patronal regime dynamics,” and “contentious politics”—developed in the study of popular protests in post-Soviet electoral autocracies, this article argues, first, that the 2020 postelection mobilization in Belarus was not to be expected for both structural and agency-related reasons. Second, by the summer of 2020, the political opportunity structure had opened up because of contingent choices by individual actors, with Alyaksandr Lukashenka committing several major mistakes, particularly on pandemic (non)control and the administration of the upcoming presidential election, and political newcomers taking on the role of challenging him. After the election, mass mobilization unfolded in two waves triggered by two additional regime mistakes: blatant electoral fraud and excessive repression. These mistakes served as focal points for spontaneous coordination, substituting for the deliberate “engineering” of prot...
The Belarus Protests and Russia: Lessons for "Big Brother"
PONARS Eurasia Policy Memos, 2021
The anti-Lukashenka protests in Belarus, which have lasted since August 2020, may have slipped off the front pages of international media, but the recent pro-Navalny demonstrations in Russia make for a powerful reminder of their significance. Both the protesters and the authorities in Russia have taken important lessons from their counterparts next door. For Alexei Navalny’s supporters, the Belarusian protests offered moral and strategic inspiration, while the Russian authorities clearly took a leaf from the Belarusian police’s playbook on the violent dispersal of demonstrations. The potential for actions in Belarus to serve as a blueprint for events further east makes a democratic resolution of the Belarusian crisis even more imperative. The hiatus in mass demonstrations of the kind seen back in autumn 2020 should not be taken as President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s victory.
THE BELARUSIAN PROTEST MOVEMENT OF 2020 FROM AN EASTERN EUROPEAN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE
Ricerche slavistiche 4 (64) 2021: 61-83, 2021
In this article, I will look for answers to the question of which fac- tors worked against the protesters’ democratic agenda and supported the deeper autocratization of the Lukašenka regime. To find it, I will first describe major tendencies of the development of the Belarusian state (in comparison with Russia and Ukraine). Then, I will analyse the factors supporting both mass protests and the repressive turn of the regime in comparison with other protest movements in Eastern Europe. Finally, I will draw conclusions about the factors that supported the stability of the regime and influenced the further autocratisation of Belarus.
The West needs to appreciate how the protest movement in Belarus has been shaped by the Soviet past
History & Policy, 2021
Executive Summary • Belarus' geopolitical position as Russia's close ally on the borders of the EU means that the West has a vested interest in ensuring a democratic outcome for the crisis that has gripped the country for over six months. • While economic sanctions are a highly effective mechanism of putting pressure on the Lukashenka regime, they need to be complemented by efforts to support civil society based on a nuanced understanding of prevalent social and political attitudes. • Belarus has a complex relationship with its Soviet past, which underpins many of the current attitudes, and failure to take this into account when devising engagement strategies risks alienating broader sections of society.
Belarus’ new political nation? 2020 anti-authoritarian protests as identity building
2021
The rigged 2020 presidential election in Belarus, as well as the disproportionate use of violence by authorities and multiple reports of tortures of detainees served as a catalyst for the Belarusian society. The mass protests that ensued were on a scale unseen since the 1990’s. Mass mobilization of citizens during Sunday rallies as well as grassroot activity and the rise of local communities led some to proclaim the birth of a new civic society and even a new Belarusian political nation. This contribution focuses on symbolic politics of the protest movement as ‘‘signifying practices’’ and examines ways in which these practices reappropriate crucial symbolic legacies in order to articulate a new political subject through representations of an anti-Lukashenka majority.