Great-Power Competition in Southeast Asia: A Philippine Perspective (original) (raw)

The presentation noted that the regional security environment is increasingly being defined by great power competition. Whilst ASEAN was founded during the Cold War rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union, the current geostrategic competition between Washington and Beijing is different in at least two ways. First, Washington and Beijing—as well as other countries in the region—are much more economically interdependent with each other. Second, with such economic interconnectedness, it is more difficult for most countries to have clear-cut strategic alignment, as many states did during the Cold War. The presentation noted that for many years, ASEAN has been the driver of multilateral diplomacy in the region. The fact that major powers continue to engage and participate in ASEAN-led platforms suggest ASEAN’s continued diplomatic role. However, the strategic milieu of the 1990s when ASEAN’s centrality in multilateral diplomacy began to emerge is different from the current geopolitical context. In this regard, the emergence of new platforms, like the Quad or AUKUS, that also aim to manage or address security challenges, could be seen as complementary rather than in competition with ASEAN. After discussing the risks and opportunities of great-power competition for Southeast Asia, the paper underscored that ASEAN’s primary role is to manage the relations between and amongst its members. If ASEAN manages Southeast Asian relations well, great powers would have minimal opportunities to exploit the organisation’s internal divisions. A more coherent and peaceful ASEAN will enhance the organization’s agency, as well as that of its member-states. In moving forward, the presentation pointed out that there is an imperative to bridge the development gap amongst AMS. Strengthening the capacity of AMS to address various security challenges is another key imperative. The ADMM-Wide Education and Training Exchanges (AETE) can be used in this regard. In both areas, ASEAN can leverage its long-standing relations with Dialogue Partners to advance security and development. There is also a need for ASEAN to enhance its current platforms and initiatives. Despite criticisms, ASEAN – the ADMM in particular – has adopted measures to help manage traditional security concerns, such as ASEAN Direct Communications Infrastructure (ADI), Guidelines for Maritime Interaction (GMI), and the Guidelines for Air Military Encounters (GAME). The implementation of the Concept Paper on the ADMM’s External Engagements will reinforce ASEAN centrality in regional defense diplomacy. Moreover, there is also an imperative for ASEAN to continuously adapt to the evolving security environment, as well as to contemplate and help address emerging security concerns such as cybersecurity, and coercive actions which fall below the threshold of armed conflict.