The Black Swan – Knowing the unknown in projects (original) (raw)

Identifying and Acting on Early Warning Signs in Complex Projects

Project Management Journal, 2012

We consider identification of early warning signs (EWS) in projects. Project professionals are not good at detecting or acting on EWS. Barriers that lead to this are identified. The nature of EWS and their detection change with the evolving situation. Project assessments, typically part of gateways, are useful in identifying EWS connected to the formalities of the project. As complexity increases, assessments have more limited use, and the project is increasingly dependent on detecting EWS by informal "gut feeling." Thus, knowledge, experience, and communication skills are increasingly important in complex situations. We conclude with a list of early warning signs.

Coping Better with the Project´s Unknown Unknowns

Managing Project Risks for Competitive Advantage in Changing Business Environments, 2000

It is the goal of management to overcome and delete uncertainty. Uncertainty is seen as an obstacle and threat for successful management. However projects are full of uncertainty. Successful project management therefore aims to overcome and ideally delete uncertainty as far as possible. In project management, uncertainty and risk are often used synonymously. Current project management methodology contains only technics how to manage risk in projects. The assessment of risks is based on the precondition of stable conditions and the idea that the influencing parameters are known, assessable and calculable. Since more than 2,000 years it is the aim of the Western cultures to master the nature by natural sciences and mathematics. In the last three centuries of Modern Philosophy the perspective developed that analytical scientific know how (episteme) and technical skills (techne) can master any kind of complexity and risk. The third traditional Aristotelian competence, the practical wisdom (phronesis) however was perceived as not acknowledgeable. Abstract

Causes of failures in project management: Analysis and inductive evidence

2023

The goal of this study is to examine the causes of project-level failure. In particular, the paper suggests typologies of failure in phases of project management associated with limited information and bounded rationality by organizations to achieve difficult goals and face environmental turbulence (increasing complexity and dynamism leading to increasing uncertainty). The main case study clarifies theoretical conceptualization, describing determinants of failure in project management of antibody drugs for Alzheimer's disease, Mars Climate Orbiter, Boeing 737-MAX, bridge and building collapses and finally in the ICT industry (e.g., in streaming platform, a cloud-streaming gaming console, etc.). Two basic strategies to face failure in project management are suggested: the first is Strategic Learning with Argyris' approach of a) single-loop learning in organizations that detects minor errors in the phases of project development and changes the actions to minimize deviations and difference between expected and obtained objectives/results, maintaining the design intent and current routines in organization; b) double-loop learning in the presence of major errors to support radical change in organizational and managerial behaviour to redesign project management to be effective to achieve goals. The second approach is strategic adaptation when an organization learns how to adapt when it is continuously subjected to internal and/or environmental change, such that it increases the ability to maintain its efficiency under different conditions. This study clarifies factors determining failure in project management to support

Early Warning Signs of Project Failure

MATEC Web of Conferences, 2018

Despite the improvement in utilization of project management tools and techniques over the years, there are still many projects failed to meet their objectives. Early warning signs becomes one of the concepts used to detect the potential cause of failure in a project. Early warning is defined by signals, which can be seen variously as an expression, indication, a proof, or a sign of existence of some future negative issues. In recent years, several researches regarding early warning signs have been proposed by many authors, varying from project assessment stage in detecting the signs, methodology in conduction early warning sign research and the type of the projects tested. This article presents a review of related work on early warning signs of project failure to give conceptual insights on what early warning is.

Managing Project Risks as Knowledge Gaps

The development of new technologies and the implementation of such technologies in new applica-tions is a continuous effort to close technological and logistical knowledge gaps. Although knowledge gaps can be closed by accident — like the case of Archimedes who closed an important knowledge gap about the laws of nature while bathing — in most cases in modern times knowledge gaps are closed by a consistent, organized effort, namely by projects. Project Management methodologies attempt to manage the risk generated by the one-time nature of projects. This risk is generated by the lack of knowledge and its resulting uncertainty. Tools for managing project risks and their consequences including risk identification, risk quantification, risk elimination, risk reduction, risk sharing, and risk control, were developed and are implemented to some degree in many technological projects. However most of these tools are based on statistical theory (e.g. the central limit theorem). Unfortunately,...

A New Way of Managing the Unexpected in Projects

ProMAC 2017 Munich, Germany, 2017

This conceptual paper, based on intense literature review in the field of project management, human factors and organisational research, argues that important lessons can be drawn from high-reliability organisations for managing complex und uncertain projects, with regard to an open and no-blame learning culture, decentralised decision-making processes and mindfulness. To manage the unexpected demands the combination of apparently opposites: both a high degree of flexibility and open communication and a culture of clear decision-making structures and responsibilities. To balance this centralization and decentralization is one of the cornerstones of mindful organising. A few core cultural values, enforced by group pressure, combined with a flexible choice of means by which these values are realized help managing unexpected events. This paper will underline that becoming mature in managing the unexpected in projects asks for a redefinition of hierarchy in terms of a shift towards intelligently handling formalised structures. It remains important to have a clear basis to act on when faced with the unexpected. But the project team and its manager should become empowered to negotiate its way to actions.

An investigation into project failures

Problem statement and background 1 1.2 Research objectives and approach 1.3 Review and summary 2. CHAPTER 2: A LITERATURE STUDY INTO CAUSES OF PROJECT FAILURE 4 2.1 Introduction 4 2.2 A redefinition of project failure 2.3 Characteristics of IT projects 2.3.1 Introduction 2.3.2 Abstract constraints 2.3.3 Visualisation 2.3.4 Flexibility 2.3.5 Uncertainty 8 2.3.6 Supporting change 8 2.4 Conclusion 3. CHAPTER 3: CHARACTERISTICS OF FAILING PROJECTS 10 3.2.7 Lack of proven success 3.3 Level 2 factors 3.3.1 Lack of benefits planning and realization 3.3.2 Quality requirement planning 3.3.3 Risk management plan 3.3.4 Project change control 3.4 Summary 4 CHAPTER 4: METHODS OF IMPROVING THE CHANCES OF DELIVERING SUCCESSFUL PROJECfS 4.1 IT projects, a background 4.1.

PROJECT FAILURE IN THE EYE OF A PRACTITIONER – MARCH 2024

How Project Can Fail to achieve the intended Objectives, 2024

A project is a temporary endeavor with a fixed start and end date. It involves a unique product or service with specific goals and objectives that a project manager and their team work together to fulfill. Projects can take various forms, from constructing a building to planning an event or completing a certain duty. They require resources such as labor, materials, and equipment, and are managed using project management techniques to ensure successful completion within the defined timeline and budget (Source: Internet and lecture notes). Source: Internet

Opportunities for learning from crises in projects

International Journal of Managing …, 2011

Purpose -The purpose of this paper is to investigate how individuals in projects learn from crises. Design/methodology/approach -The multiple-case protocol described by Yin and his six sources of evidence were utilized. Observations were contemporaneous and somewhere between direct and participative. Bias was avoided by having the observer on site, but not part of the project team. A diary recorded events; company notes and records substantiated observations. Findings -The study contributes to the understanding of the need that project managers have to adapt to changes from plan and the coincidental learning that occurs in the workplace. Both cumulative and abrupt crises treated by project/site teams and corporate staff are described. A necessary and sufficiency approach was used to rationalize the organizational learning. The necessary condition was that the episodes could be described in terms used by Gherardi in her treatment of routine learning. As a sufficiency condition, the authors discussed the systemic approach in which these episodes are handled.