Intelligent forecasting of economic growth for African economies: Artificial neural networks versus time series and structural econometric models (original) (raw)

IJERT-Africa Economic Growth Forecasting Research Based on Artificial Neural Network Model: Case Study of Benin

International Journal of Engineering Research and Technology (IJERT), 2014

https://www.ijert.org/africa-economic-growth-forecasting-research-based-on-artificial-neural-network-model-case-study-of-benin https://www.ijert.org/research/africa-economic-growth-forecasting-research-based-on-artificial-neural-network-model-case-study-of-benin-IJERTV3IS111063.pdf Economic growth forecasting is important to make the policy on national economic development. Neural Networks are an artificial intelligence method for modeling complex target functions. For certain types of problems, such as learning to interpret complex real world sensor data, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are among the most effective learning methods currently know. The objective of this paper is to provide an intelligent algorithm and a practical in the design of a neural network for economic growth forecasting. Based on the original data from Benin economic database, we extracted the knowledge of economic classification, which includes attribute discretization, attribute importance ranking, attribute reduction and prediction rule. Then input the extracted key components into neural network as the input training sample. This method reduced the structure of neural network, and improved the training speed and the accuracy of prediction. The Benin Case study shows that the neural network can solve nonlinear problem and had been proved that the method is effective and feasible with high accuracy. The model has a good reference value for practical application.

Africa Economic Growth Forecasting Research Based on Artificial Neural Network Model: Case Study of Benin

Economic growth forecasting is important to make the policy on national economic development. Neural Networks are an artificial intelligence method for modeling complex target functions. For certain types of problems, such as learning to interpret complex real world sensor data, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are among the most effective learning methods currently know. The objective of this paper is to provide an intelligent algorithm and a practical in the design of a neural network for economic growth forecasting. Based on the original data from Benin economic database, we extracted the knowledge of economic classification, which includes attribute discretization, attribute importance ranking, attribute reduction and prediction rule. Then input the extracted key components into neural network as the input training sample. This method reduced the structure of neural network, and improved the training speed and the accuracy of prediction. The Benin Case study shows that the neural network can solve nonlinear problem and had been proved that the method is effective and feasible with high accuracy. The model has a good reference value for practical application.

Are Neural Network Models Truly Effective at Forecasting? An Evaluation of Forecast Performance of Traditional Models with Neural Network Model for the Macroeconomic Data of G-7 Countries

International Journal of Economic and Environmental Geology, 2020

Forecasting macroeconomic and financial data are always difficult task to the researchers. Various statisticaland econometrics techniques have been used to forecast these variables more accurately. Furthermore, in the presenceof structural break, linear models are failed to model and forecast. Therefore, this study examines the forecastingperformance of economic variables of G7 countries: France, Italy, Canada, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom andUnited States of America using non-linear autoregressive neural network (ARNN) model, linear auto regressive (AR)and Auto regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) models. The economic variables are inflation,exchange rate and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the period from 1970 to 2015. To measure theperformance of the considered model Root, Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error and Mean Absolute PercentageError are used. The results show that the forecasts from the non-linear neural network model are undoubtedly better asc...

Comparison of the Performance of the SANN, SARIMA and ARIMA Models for Forecasting Quarterly GDP of Nigeria

Asian Research Journal of Mathematics, 2021

This research aimed at modelling and forecasting the quarterly GDP of Nigeria using the Seasonal ArtificialNeural Network (SANN), SARIMAand Box-Jenkins models as well as comparing their predictive performance. The three models mentioned earlier were successfully fitted to the data set. Tentative architecture for the SANN wassuggested by varying the number ofneurons in the hidden layer while that of the input and output layer remained constant at 4. It was observed that the best architecture was when the hidden layer had 10 neurons and thus SANN (4-10-4) was chosen as the best. In fitting the ARIMA/SARIMA models, the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test was used to check for stationarity. Variance stabilization and Stationarity were achieved after logarithm transformation and first regular differencing. The ARIMA/SARIMA model with lowest AIC, BIC and HQIC valueswas chosen as the best amongst the competing models and fitted to the data. The adequacy of the fitted models was confirmed observing the correlogram of the residuals andthe Ljung-Box Chi-Squared testresult. The SANN modelperformedbetter than the SARIMA and ARIMA models as it had a Mean Squared Error value of 0.004 while SARIMA and ARIMA had mean squared errors of 0.527 and 0.705 respectively. It was concluded that the SANN which is a non-linear model be used in modelling the quarterly GDP of Nigeria. Hybrid models which combine the strength of individual models are recommended for further research. Original Research Article

A COMPARISON OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AND MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS IN MODELING GDP IN NIGERIA

This research work is the application of artificial neural network (ANN) and statistical method of multiple regression analysis in predicting GDP in Nigeria collected from C.B.N annual statistical bulletin 2014 covering from year 1979 to 2014. GDP representing economic growth as a function of macroeconomic variables. Evident from the analysis shows that the independent variables are highly correlated with the dependent variable of GDP, excepting the inflation rate having a negative correlation value of approximately 0.4. However, the value of the goodness of fit (R 2) is given as 0.812 (81.2%). Based on the values of R 2 , MSE and RMSE and for comparison of efficiency between ANN and regression analysis, it was discovered that ANN model outperforms regression analysis significantly and thus achieve a better fit and forecast.

The ARIMA versus Artificial Neural Network Modeling

IJCI. International Journal of Computers and Information

Linear models almost reach their limitations with non-linearity in the data. This paper provides a new empirical evidence on the relative macroeconomic forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear models. The wellestablished and widely used univariate Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models are used as linear forecasting models whereas Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are used as nonlinear forecasting models. The neural network paradigm that was selected for developing the proposed model is a Multi-layer Feedforward network based upon the Backpropagation training algorithm. ANN has been proven to be successful in handling nonlinear problem optimization and prediction. The forecasting models used to identify whether action is needed to alter the future, when such action should be taken by the decision maker in order to change the future of the bank or its environment to improve the bank's chance of achieving its targets. We applied the proposed model on a Financial Balance Sheet's data of a commercial bank in Egypt. The Results show that, the proposed model (which dependent on the ANN) is more accurate than the other models, which depend on the ARIMA model with accuracy between 8 % and 10.4 %.

A Comparison of Artificial Neural Network and Time Series Models for Forecasting GDP in Palestine

American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 2016

Time series of quarterly observations on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is collected and used in this study. Forecasting results of ANNs are compared with those of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and regression as benchmark methods. Using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), the empirical results show that ANN performs better than the traditional methods in forecasting GDP.

Modeling and Forecasting Africa's GDP with Time Series Models

International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 2018

Forecasting economic growth for developing countries is a problematic task, peculiarly because of particularities they face. The model identification process in this paper yielded a random walk model for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) series. We applied ARIMA models to get empirical results and bring to a close that the models obtained are suitable for forecasting the economic output of Africa. The adequate models were used for each of 20 Africa's largest economies to forecast future time series values. Based on the estimation results, we concluded that from 1990 looking forward to 2030, there will be an increasing GDP growth where the average speed of the economy of Africa will be of 5.52%, and the GDP could achieve 2185.21billionto2185.21 billion to 2185.21billionto10186.18 billion.

Forecasting Nigerian Stock Market Returns using ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network Models

The study reports empirical evidence that artificial neural network based models are applicable to forecasting of stock market returns. The Nigerian stock market logarithmic returns time series was tested for the presence of memory using the Hurst coefficient before the models were trained. The test showed that the logarithmic returns process is not a random walk and that the Nigerian stock market is not efficient. Two artificial neural network based models were developed in the study. These networks are and whose out-of-sample forecast performance was compared with a baseline model. The results obtained in the study showed that artificial neural network based models are capable of mimicking closely the log-returns as compared to the based model. The out-of-sample evaluations of the trained models were based on the , , and the directional change metric respectively. Based on these metrics, it was found that the artificial neural network based models outperformed the based model in f...

Time Series Modeling and Forecasting GDP in the Ghanaian Economy

2017

In this research, empirical modeling of the Ghanaian GDP was done by using the Box-Jenkins model which is also known as the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA). We followed the 4 steps involved in using this model which include model identification, estimation of parameters, diagnostic checking and finally, model use (or forecasting). The analysis was carried out by using the GDP data of Ghana from 1970-2014. We found an original result by discovering an ARIMA (0; 1; 0) process modeling this GDP data. Next, we made forecast of the GDP of Ghana for the period 2015-2020 and compared the forecast values with that of Ghana Statistical service and other international forecasting organizations. The result from the forecast revealed that the GDP of Ghana is mostly influenced by external factors and may experience an increase for the period 2015-2020. Keywords: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), stationarity, invertibility, Box-Jenkins, auto-regressive.