Cantonal convergence in Ecuador: A spatial econometric perspective (original) (raw)

Canton growth in Ecuador and the role of spatial heterogeneity

CEPAL Review, 2019

This paper identifies the determinants of per capita gross value added (GVA) growth in Ecuador during the 2007-2015 period, using a spatial extension of the Mankiw, Romer and Weil (MRW) model. Because as a country Ecuador is characterized by deep territorial socioeconomic imbalances, estimates using classical techniques that measure average or "global" effects would not be as justifiable and would have limited political implications. Accordingly, this study uses a spatial filtering technique, which is a recent evolution of geographically weighted regression (GWR), to account for the spatial heterogeneity of the coefficients of a growth regression that explicitly considers both physical and human capital. The results show that Ecuadorian cantons have a wide range of convergence rates and that the effect of physical and human capital varies across space.

Spatial Economic Convergence and Public Expenditure in Ecuador

Symmetry

In Ecuador, the sectorial policies, public policies and state investment, increase the presence of polarized and polycentric territories with very heterogeneous characteristics and with asymmetric levels of economic growth and development. The explanation for the unequal growth of regions in Ecuador is determined by the existence of different types of asymmetries; that determine economic dynamics and non-convergent development processes. The aim of this research is to determine the effect of an increase in public spending on physical infrastructure and education, on the improvement of productive conditions and on the process of reducing disparities (convergence) at the regional level in Ecuador. To do this, the hypothesis of beta convergence will be tested, which is conditioned by the proxy variables of public expenditure or investment in infrastructure and education at provincial level, for the 2001–2015 period. The results show the existence of a "slight" process of conv...

Spatial Dependence and Regional Convergence in Brazil

The majority of the studies on regional convergence ignore the spatial characteristics of the problem. In a recent paper Rey and Montouri (1999) considered the issue of income regional convergence on US under the spatial econometric perspective. The present paper follows the Rey and Montouri's (1999) approach and introduces some spatial econometric techniques for convergence among Brazilian states. State data over the 1970-95 period is considered. As in the US case, strong patters of spatial correlation are found during the period.

Spatial Dependence and Regional Convergence in Brazil 1

2005

The present paper introduces some spatial econometric techniques to the convergence issue among Brazilian states. State data over the 1970-95 period are considered to explore previous results that suggested convergence. As in the US case, strong patterns of spatial correlation are found during the period. The spatial econometric analysis reveals that spatial error dependence seems to be present resulting in the potential for model misspecification. The results indicate that, although some convergence among states is taking place, it seems to be more of regional phenomena or perhaps some type of club convergence than a global convergence process. States like São Paulo dominate the first group while the Northeast states form a second group or club. JEL classification: N63 R12, F14.

Analysis of Convergence for the Ecuadorian case at the cantonal level in the period: 2007-2017

The objective of this study is to analyze the existence of convergence and determine its magnitude at the cantonal level for the Ecuadorian economy during the period 2007 to 2017. Following the methodology proposed by Quah, the transition matrix of the Ecuadorian economy at the cantonal level is estimated, following the postulates of Barro and Sala-i-Martin, the sigma convergence process is identified and an econometric model is estimated using OLS and cross-sectional data, to determine the existence and magnitude of the beta convergence. The main findings indicate that Ecuador shows an improvement in the final mobility situation. Furthermore, the absolute convergence rate amounts to 3.62% annual average at the cantonal level, while, by including conditioning factors in relation to physical infrastructure of households, electricity consumption and education, the speed of convergence amounts to 4.67% average annual, which denotes key areas of intervention, among others, in order to shorten territorial gaps in Ecuador.

Economic convergence: a regional and subregional view

2011

Economic convergence: a regional and subregional view Manuel PA©rez Montiel Gislaine Cristina de Souza Rech Judite Sanson de Bem The study of economic convergence among nations is based on the initial work of Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1991), a topic of spatial econometric analysis Recently, research on economic convergence have been directed towards smaller spatial scales: regions in a country and urban regions and microregions in a Region. Economic convergence is a structural process, which occurs in the long term. The availability of comprehensive information and accurate for very long periods of time, and new processing techniques of spatial information,allows to study of economic convergence processes from a more detailed view. In this paper it is postulated that the processes of economic convergence, regional and subregional level, are produced according to different models. It tries to identify these different patterns of economic convergence within a nation or a region. We sho...

Spatial Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence

Geographical Analysis, 2010

This paper suggests some new empirical strategies for analyzing the evolution of regional income distributions over time and space. These approaches are based on extensions to the classical Markov transition matrices that allow f o r a more comprehensive analysis of the geographical dimensions of the transitional dynamics. This is achieved by integrating some recently developed local spatial statistics within a Markov framework. Insights to not only the frequency with which one economy m y transition across diferent classes in the income distribution, but also how those transitions m y or m y not be spatially dependent are provided by these new measures. A number of indices are suggested as ways to characterize the space-time dynamics and are illustrated in a case study of U. S. regional income dynamics over the 1929-1 994 period.

Regional Convergence and Agglomeration in Argentina: a spatial panel data approach

Cet articleétudie la convergence des revenus par tte entre les 23 provinces argentines de 1983à 2002. L'objet de ce papier est d'appliquer de nouvelles méthodes d'estimation en suivant la procédure en deuxétapes de . Nous combinons une méthode de filtrage spatial des variableséliminant l'autocorrélation spatiale et un estimateur adaptéà un panel dynamique (en utilisant un estimateur MMG en différences premires et en systme). Nos estimations sur données filtrées concluentà une convergence conditionnelle entre les provinces argentines età un impact significatif de la variable agglomération sur le taux de croissance. Ainsi, nos résultats montrent qu'ignorer les distorsions spatiales duesà la proximité géographiqueà des estimations erronées et sous-estiment la vitesse de convergence notamment des provinceséloignées de Buenos Aires. De plus, l'estimation des effets d'agglomération est améliorée lorsque l'autocrrélaion spatiale estéliminée.

Regional Income Disparities and Convergence: Does Spatial Dependence Matter?

2007

The paper deals with exploring regional economic growth, income disparities and convergence in the countries of the European Union. Overall, 861 regions – mainly at the regional level NUTS-3 – of the EU enlarged in May 2004 are analyzed for the period 1995 2003. Spatial econometric methods are applied in order to identify existing spatial interaction and to control effects of spatial autocorrelation. The estimators confirmed that that there is spatial dependence between observations. The results of the analysis show that poorer regions mainly situated in the European periphery have tended to grow faster than the relatively rich European core regions. However, this catching-up process has been painfully slow and it has been driven mainly by national factors. Particularly, national growth rates in the new member states (NMS) have been dominated by very dynamic metropolitan areas. The forces that drive regional convergence seem to have not yet prevailed in NMS. If it can be expected th...

US Regional Income Convergence: A Spatial Econometric Perspective

REY S. J. and M O NT O U RI B. D. (1999) U S regional income convergence: a spatial econometric perspective, Reg. Studies 33, 143± 156. This study reconsiders the question of U S regional economic income convergence from a spatial econometric perspective. Recently developed methods of exploratory spatial data analysis provide new insights on the geographical dynamics of U S regional income growth patterns over the 1929± 94 period. Strong patterns of both global and local spatial autocorrelation are found throughout the study period, and the magnitude of global spatial autocorrelation is also found to exhibit strong temporal co-movement with regional income dispersion. A spatial econometric analysis of the familiar Baumol speci® cation reveals strong evidence of misspeci® cation due to ignored spatial error dependence. Because of this dependence, shocks originating in one state can spillover into surrounding states, potentially complicating the transitional dynamics of the convergence process.