Macroprudential Policy in a DSGE Model: anchoring the countercyclical capital buffer (original) (raw)
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We develop a DSGE model for a small, open economy with a banking sector and endogenous default in order to perform a realistic assessment of macroprudential tools: countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) and dynamic provisions (DP). The model is estimated with data for Uruguay, where dynamic provisioning is in place since early 2000s. We find that (i) the source of the shock affecting the financial system matters, to select the appropriate indicator variable under the CCB rule, and to calibrate the size of the DP. Given a positive external shock, CCB (ii) generates buffers without major real effects; (iii) GDP as an indicator variable has quicker and stronger effects over bank capital; and (iv) the ratio of credit to GDP decreases, which discourages its use as an indicator variable. DP (v) generates buffers with real effects, and (vi) seems to outperform the CCB in terms of smoothing the cycle.
Latin American Journal of Central Banking, 2020
We quantify the effect of macroprudential policy in mitigating domestic and foreign shocks to a small open commodity based economy estimated on Chilean data. The model features a heterogeneous banking sector and includes financial frictions through collateralized borrowing and unsecured loans with the possibility of endogenous haircuts or default. The estimation shows that shocks affect large and small banks differently through the heterogeneous adjustment of both the composition of assets and the level of liabilities. This implies that countercyclical capital buffers as well as the countercyclical liquidity coverage ratios need to be introduced jointly to maintain financial stability. Countercyclical capital buffers alone cause large and small banks to adjust their balance sheet sizes in opposite directions. Only combined capital and liquidity policies raise both types of banks costs while growing their assets and thus attenuate aggregate credit fluctuations over the business cycle. ☆ We would like to thank Mikhail Dmitriev and Christoffer Koch for helpful comments and suggestions. We also like to thank the participants of
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RegGae is a toolkit to adapt DSGE models for analyzing macroprudential policy. To be useful for macroprudential policy, a DSGE needs to have financial crises along the equilibrium path. RegGae embeds financial crises in DSGEs as regime switches, events that change the structural relationships in the economy. The solu-tion concept of RegGae is regime-wise linearization, a procedure that preserves the non-linearities of models of financial crises. The transition probabilities governing the switch are endogenous, conditional on the state variables. With the toolkit, DSGEs can be used to draw the distribution of variables in order to measure the expected welfare of macroprudential policy. This allows for calibrating macropru-dential tools to trade off mean and variance optimally. The toolkit unifies DSGE modeling with early warning (crisis prediction) methods. The endogeneity of the probability of regime switches reflects the fact that the probability of financial crises depends on the ...
Estimation of Effects of Recent Macroprudential Policies in a Sample of Advanced Open Economies
International Journal of Financial Studies
We used a time-series cross-section dataset to test several hypotheses pertaining to the role of macroprudential policy instruments in the management of the financial cycle in advanced open economies. The short-run effects are most significant for caps on loan to value and income (LTV and LTI) and risk weights (RW). The long-run coefficients of credit growth with respect to the indicators of amortisation requirements (Amort) and RW are also significant. The estimation results when house price growth is the dependent variable are consistent with these results. Our findings do not support that Basel III type countercyclical buffer (CCyB) has affected credit growth, and we suggest that the variable is mainly a control in our dataset. In that interpretation, it is interesting that the estimated coefficients of the other instruments are robust with respect to exclusion of CCyB from the empirical models. The main results are also robust to controls in the form of impulse indicator saturat...
SSRN Electronic Journal
When financial regulators require banks to hold a higher ratio of equity capital to debt funding, banks incur short-term costs as they adjust their balance sheets and lose some of the advantages associated with their existing funding mix. They then seek to maintain post-tax income by, for example, raising lending margins. Higher lending margins tend to lower the volumes of borrowing. This creates a trade-off between the greater stability associated with a higher ratio of equity capital to debt funding and the level of economic activity in the short to medium term. While the benefits of greater stability are obviously very large, and the reduction in economic activity is very unlikely to be on a comparable scale, exploring the trade-off is not straightforward. Past work on this did not solve all of the modelling problems, nor does this paper. We do, however, report some useful developments, which may assist in calibrating policy or monitoring the impacts of judgements already made. Recent papers (e.g. Haldane and May, 2011) have begun to explore the characteristics that appear to make the banking network more or less stable. It
Sectoral risk-weights and macroprudential policy
Journal of Banking & Finance, 2018
This paper analyses bank capital requirements in a general equilibrium model by evaluating the implications of di↵erent designs of such requirements regarding their impact on the tendency of banks to amplify the business cycle. We compare the Basel-established Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach to risk weighting assets with an alternative macroprudential approach which sets risk-weights in response to sectoral measures of leverage. The di↵erent methods are compared in a crisis scenario, where the crisis originates from the housing market that a↵ects the banking sector and is then transmitted to the wider economy. We investigate both boom and bust phases of the crisis by simulating an unrealized news shock that leads to a gradual build up and rapid crash in the economy. Our results suggest that the IRB approach creates procyclicality in regulatory capital requirements and thereby works to amplify both boom and bust phases of the financial cycle. On the other hand, our proposed macroprudential approach to setting risk-weights leads to counter-cyclicality in regulatory capital requirements and thereby attenuates the financial cycle.
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Abstract. Use of macroprudential policies in recent years has gained relevance in different economies. As a result of the financial crisis in 2008, this instrument was useful in emerging economies to reduce the effects of the adverse international context. The relationship between financial intermediation and the real sector is positive, in response to shocks in productive credit the sectoral growth is 0.15pp in 2016. Likewise, the modification of the reserve requirement rate can provide or with draw liquidity from the financial system, in the first case, the objective is to increase portfolio placement, which affects the development of productive sectors. Therefore, there is a need to evaluate the effect of changes in the reserve requirement rateon sectoral growth in Bolivia, which was offset by the financial cycle because episodes of Credit Crunch affect the real sector (the economic cycle is amplified to the downside). The methodologies used are the Fixed Effects (FE), Random Eff...
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