Determinants of the demand for urban transport: results of a case study (original) (raw)
Related papers
Studies in Local Public Transport Demand (Introduction)
2008
This thesis consists of four papers where the overall purpose is to contribute to the understanding of how local public transport demand is affected by different factors. An underlying theme running trough the thesis is the two-way relationship between public transport demand and the service level, caused by the fact that capacity and quality are joint products.
European Transport Research Review, 2013
Purpose In order for public transport to be a part of the solution to the environmental problems caused by traffic there need to be a clear understanding of how, and to what extent, different factors affect demand. There still seem to be some confusion regarding some key relationships, one of them being the effect of income on public transport demand. The purpose of this article is therefore to provide empirical estimates of how different factors, including price and car ownership (although income being the main issue), affect the demand for local public transport. Methods In order to achieve the aim of the study, an econometric FD-model, allowing for unobserved effects, was estimated using panel data from Swedish counes from 1986 to 2001. Results The short-run (direct) elascies with respect to fare, vehicle-kilometres, income and car ownership were found to be −0,4, 0,55, 0,34, and −1,37 respectively. However, income affects public transport demand directly, and through its effect on car ownership, these effects works in opposite direction. Combining these it is found that total income effect is close to zero. Conclusions It is concluded that, although the findings of several previous studies suggests that demand for public transport might be falling with increased income, there is no evidence of such effects even when the full effect of changes in income (including changes in car ownership) is taken into account.
Examining the Effects of Transport Policy on Modal Shift from Private Car to Public Bus
Procedia Engineering
Private vehicles have become the most common mode of daily travel. This is one effect of the poor accessibility of public transportation. This paper attempts to use a study based on a survey of commuters in order to devise ways of encouraging the use of public transportation. Two different public transport policies were examined: (i) once-an-hour direct bus service from home to university (policy 1), and (ii) park-and-ride facilities (policy 2). Binary logistics models are proposed with the intention of comparing the utility of travel modes between private cars and public buses. These models are also used to identify the factors which have the potential to encourage car users to switch from travelling by cars to public buses. Explanatory factors considered in all three models include: occupation, trip length, travel time, trip frequency, gender, age and possession of a license. We began from the basic scenario by focusing on existing services without considering any new policy. The consequences of two new policies were then analysed in order to identify those factors which influence the choice of travel mode and which can predict the probability of behavioural change. All the proposed logistics models are evaluated using real-world data (with 4410 samples) from a survey carried out at the University of Wollongong (UOW), Australia. Stated preference (SP) questionnaires were used to collect relevant information on the choice of travel mode. Based on the proposed models, findings identify a hierarchy of importance of relevant factors which could assist decision makers to design and implement more successful future transport service(s).
Social Cost Pricing when Public Transport is an Option Value
Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research, 2000
A well known principle of welfare economics states that an efficient resources' allocation can be achieved in a competitive economy when market prices are in line with social marginal costs. When applied to the transport sector, this implies that the price of the various transport modes should be made equal to the sum of marginal production and external costs, like congestion, accidents, pollution, and road maintenance. It is sometimes argued the internalisation of external costs would bring about a change in demand patterns with a shift towards public transport and cleaner modes. But, public transport is already favoured by a discriminatory fiscal treatment.
Demand for public transport services: Integrating qualitative and quantitative methods
This research is in the context of a mode choice study in Switzerland. This paper represents the discrete choice modeling part of this study. A comprehensive data collection campaign is carried out which also includes psychometric indicators for attitudes, perceptions and lifestyle preferences. With the help of these indicators an integrated choice and latent variable model is built including the latent attitudes of attitude against public transport and environmental concern.
External transport pricing and modal choice: evidence from a Paris case study
Urban Transport XII: Urban Transport and the Environment in the 21st Century, 2006
Many European studies have shown that prices paid by transport users do not cover the real cost of moving. Some costs related to pollution, congestion, noise and accidents are covered partially. The external costs caused by travel using public transport are lower than using cars. This deduction has pushed many authorities to encourage the transfer of passenger traffic from private car to public transport. The purpose of the present study is to estimate the impact of some external costs pricing on the commuters' modal split between car and public transport. We have used two pricing schemes: exogenous toll and marginal social cost pricing. To put it into practice, we estimate Multinomial Logit (ML). On the other hand, ML has a critical assumption related to the Independence from Irrelevant Alternatives. In order to relax this property we recast the model as a nested structure. We simulate these prices' scenarios through a Nested logit model. Therefore we estimate the choice probabilities, thus we calculate the welfare gains. The aim results of this paper indicate that prices paid by transport users must reflect marginal external costs (mec). For the exogenous toll, the welfare gains are relatively small. This finding is not surprising because taxes are below the mec. For the marginal social cost pricing, all taxes are corrected so as to equal the mec; the welfare gain is estimated at 0.61%. We can also notice that a part of the reduction in car use is due to its substitution for public transport.
2017
Under the legacy of dominant transport appraisal approach, which mainly relies on traditional cost-benefit assessment (CBA) analyses, candidate policies and associated projects are evaluated in a way to take primarily aggregate information into account. Although it is practical to use these methods, working with aggregate values leaves every kind of disparities aside and individual level information is lost in aggregation. This means that we need better economic models doing more than reducing outcomes of evaluated policies to numerical aggregates and averages. This study proposes a hybrid approach to grasp the heterogeneity among different agents and to endogenise interactions among different markets. A discrete choice theory-based household residential location and transport mode choice model and a traffic equilibrium model based on Wardrop's principles are embedded in a traditional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model representing a closed urban economy. This requires fully integrating three different models (economic model, household location and mode choice model, traffic equilibrium model) using a single mathematical framework. The proposed integrated model is tested using pseudo data of a city with four districts where connection between districts are provided through two-way roads passing through a central district. Households are categorised according to their residential location, working location, preferred commuting mode and social status. Different types of transport policies (i.e. capacity increase in private transport, public transport improvement) are evaluated and impacts of these policies on such parameters like household distribution, households' demands on consumption goods and housing, housing prices are analysed.
The political economy of urban transport-system choice
Journal of Public Economics, 2006
This paper analyzes the political economy of transport-system choice, with the goal of gaining an understanding of the forces involved in this important urban public policy decision. Transport systems pose a continuous trade-off between time and money cost, so that a city can choose a fast system with a high money cost per mile or a slower, cheaper system. The paper compares the socially optimal transport system to the one chosen under the voting process, focusing on both homogeneous and heterogeneous cities, while considering different landownership arrangements. The analysis identifies a bias toward underinvestment in transport quality in heterogeneous cities. D