Modeling the Employment Rate in Russia: a Spatial-Econometric Approach (original) (raw)

Russian Regions in the Global Economic Space

Advances in economics, business and management research, 2020

The article is devoted to analysis and assessment of the place of Russian regions in terms of labor productivity in context of the global economic space. Its main goal is to identify (empirical) patterns of acceleration or deceleration of the growth rate of above mentioned indicator on the basis of large international and Russian statistical data sets, to elicit the similarity (analogies) between countries of the world and Russian regions that are close to each other in terms of technological development. Preliminary results indicate that a group of regions rapidly developing (against the background of not only Russia as a whole, but also the world) appeared in Russia. It comes into particular prominence after 2008-2009. It is important that achievements of many of them are not connected with metropolitan position or rent-seeking. The idea of the article and its novelty is to identify specific successful regions behind general trends and to understand the origins of success. Among specific issues the article considers ones related to the ratio of labor productivity indicators among countries of the world and regions of Russia. It is shown that the measure of differentiation of the considered indicators in the world is higher than in Russia.

Inter- and Intra-Regional Disparities in Russia: Factors of Uneven Economic Growth

Sustainability, 2021

Despite the growing body of literature on the dependence of economic growth from different factors, the reasons for uneven growth remain unclear. Within the country, regions have different growth rates in their diverse parts. It is unclear why the same factor could influence municipalities differently. To reveal this reason, we used hierarchical linear modeling with spatial dependence, which allows us to decompose variation into regional and municipal scales and take into account spatial autocorrelation. We conducted our research on data for 2239 municipalities within 85 Russian regions in 2019. Our model incorporates 20 factors of economic growth, with 7 at the municipal scale. Cross-interaction estimates established that factors attributed to the regional level determined the relationship between dependent variables (growth rate of production, growth rate of social benefits, and taxable income) at the municipal level and predictors. The influence of initial level, investments in f...

Interregional Labor Migration as a Tool to Increase Regional Labor Productivity: The Case of Russia

2019

Purpose: The paper deals with the analysis of the influence of interregional labor migration in the Russian Federation on regional labor productivity. Design/Methodology/Approach: Empirical analysis was conducted on the statistical data collected from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation. The sample includes data on 85 subjects of the Russian Federation for the period 2011-2016. The study substantiates the impact of interregional labor migration in the Russian Federation on regional labor productivity and to form the tools for managing migration processes, ensuring its improvement. Findings: The study showed that interregional differences in wages, the differentiation of the characteristics of labor markets in the region of residence and the potential region of employment, different transport accessibility and additional employee costs associated with staying in another region are the main economic reasons for interregional labor migration in the Russian Federation. The regression analysis confirmed hypotheses that higher level of labor migration from the region leads to a decrease in labor productivity in the region. Practical Implications: Based on the empirically derived relationships, authors created a set of tools for managing migration processes, ensuring their improvement, which can be used for the development of program documents at the regional and interregional levels. Originality/Value: The main contribution of this study is the combination of deep statistical analysis and migration factors' analysis to provide valuable conclusions in interregional labor migrations.

Spatial inequalities in Russia: dynamic and sectorial analysis

International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, 2013

We study the dynamics of interregional disparities for a number of characteristics of the development, test the hypothesis of the new economic geography and connect the results with the prediction of the bell-shaped curve describing the spatial concentration over time. Empirical analysis shows that the spatial concentration of economic activity is continuing in Russia and the rate of interregional divergence is rather high. The factors of the spatial concentration and the regional disparities in Russia are population density, size and accessibility of markets, as well as the level of diversification.

Evolution of the Spatial Distribution of Economic Activities in Russia

Journal Region: Economics and Sociology, 2014

The study is based on the idea of plurality of spatial equilibrium and hypotheses of agglomeration economies. The spatial concentration indices are analyzed and econometric estimates are given. It is shown that evolution of the spatial distribution of economic activity in Russia is moving toward its concentration. Obviously, the spatial model of development is changing to a new one, which is characterized by a higher con centration of economic activity and, consequently, a higher level of interregional heterogeneity. Noticeable reallocation of production and output factors from East to West is not observed. It has been concluded that Russian regional policy aimed at supporting "points of growth" and "priority areas of development" is inef fective at present. Due to agglomeration mechanisms, territories with a growing economy can improve the dynamics of their development on their own, without state support. Agglomeration processes occur through out Russia; their speed is only slightly lower in the East. At a time when interregional competition dominates cooperation, spatial externalities are negative, and government regulation focused on the support of dynamic economies can lead to further polarization. Regional policy aimed at smoothing differences between regions is a more sensible choice. An additional argument in its favor is federal restrictions in the form of a state sys tem and threat of separatism.

Evolution of spatial distribution of economic activity in Russia

Regional Research of Russia, 2015

The study is based on the idea of plurality of spatial equilibrium and hypotheses of agglomeration economies. The spatial concentration indices are analyzed and econometric estimates are given. It is shown that evolution of the spatial distribution of economic activity in Russia is moving toward its concentration. Obviously, the spatial model of development is changing to a new one, which is characterized by a higher con centration of economic activity and, consequently, a higher level of interregional heterogeneity. Noticeable reallocation of production and output factors from East to West is not observed. It has been concluded that Russian regional policy aimed at supporting "points of growth" and "priority areas of development" is inef fective at present. Due to agglomeration mechanisms, territories with a growing economy can improve the dynamics of their development on their own, without state support. Agglomeration processes occur through out Russia; their speed is only slightly lower in the East. At a time when interregional competition dominates cooperation, spatial externalities are negative, and government regulation focused on the support of dynamic economies can lead to further polarization. Regional policy aimed at smoothing differences between regions is a more sensible choice. An additional argument in its favor is federal restrictions in the form of a state sys tem and threat of separatism.

Russia's Regions: Income Volatility, Labor Mobility and Fiscal Policy

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. Russia's regions are heavily exposed to regional income shocks because of an uneven distribution of natural resources and a Soviet legacy of heavily skewed regional specialization. Also, Russia has a limited mobility of labor and lacks fiscal instruments to deal with regional shocks. We assess how these features influence the magnitude and persistence of regional income shocks, through a panel vector autoregression, drawing on extensive and unique regional data covering last decade. We find that labor mobility associated with regional shocks is far lower than in the United States yet higher than in the EU-15, and that regional expenditures tend to expand in booms and contract in recessions. We discuss institutional factors behind these outcomes and policy implications.

Convergence of Russian Regions: Different Patterns for Poor, Middle and Rich

Economy of Region, 2021

The Strategy of Spatial Development of the Russian Federation until 2025 aims at the economic growth acceleration and reduction of the intra-regional socio-economic differences. Therefore, the factors affecting the economic growth of regions, convergence of regions, spillover effects from the neighbouring regions are of importance. Russian regions are very different and do not converge to a unique equilibrium path. 80 Russian regions were divided into the groups of poor, middle and rich regions. Three main hypotheses were considered, based on the differences in the 1) convergence speed, 2) influence of the same factors, 3) different mutual influence of regions. They were tested using a modified spatially autoregressive model for the three groups using the Russian regional data for 2000–2017. Beta-convergence was found only for the middle and rich regions, the rate of convergence was higher in the rich regions. The poor regions did not grow faster than the other regions, confirming t...

Active Labor Market Policies in Russia: Regional Interpretation Determines Effectiveness?

2003

Persistently sizeable unemployment attracts interest to active labor market policy as an instrument to reduce unemployment. Moreover, sustainable economic growth requires an effective re-training system, a part of which is usually associated with state employment offices' programs. Little is known, however, about the effects of active labor market programs (ALMPs) on the unemployed in Russia. The paper is the first attempt to shed some light on effectiveness of ALMP in Russia from micro perspective. The influence of ALMPs on the probability of re-employment is estimated using administrative individual-level data from employment service register on two Russian regions. Overall and group treatment effects of the programs are estimated using the nonexperimental exact matching approach. Two cases -assuming that the first program has the major effect (single program participation) and examining sequences of programs (multiple program participation) -are considered. A matching design allowing taking advantage of duration nature of administrative data to compensate for informational restrictions associated with the dataset is proposed. We find that the programs under consideration seem to prolong the unemployment spells in one of the regions, and help to leave unemployment quicker in the other, with the size of the effects differing 3-5 times. The sizable difference in treatment effects prompt for substantial institutional differences: there seems to be high discretion in interpretation of employment service role in the local labor market revealed in procedures of program assignment.