China and the BRI: Challenges and Opportunities for Southeast Asia (original) (raw)

Abstract

Since Xi Jinping's unveiling, in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has drawn remarkable global attention, raising polarized judgements about China's ambitions. A number of countries and institutions enthusiastically considered the BRI as a valuable infrastructural and economic contribution that would enhance connectivity among Eurasian countries; on the other hand, critics viewed the BRI as part of Beijing's effort to gain global influence, especially within its neighborhood. Chinese policymakers have considered Southeast Asia as a critical region for the success of the BRI, mainly because of the geographical proximity as well as the strong economic ties with both individual states and the ASEAN. In Southeast Asian states' view, however, the BRI still presents a mixed picture of opportunities and challenges. Despite the clear appeal the BRI has to both democratic and authoritarian leaders in the region, especially at a time of economic uncertainty-fueled by unhelpful actions by the United States (withdrawal from the TPP and the trade war against Beijing)-concerns remain. Potential overdependence on China, the BRI's financial sustainability and negative popular perceptions about Beijing within certain Southeast Asian countries, all contribute to nurture caution in the region. The paper aims at showing how the implementation of the BRI will likely enhance China's influence in Southeast Asia. Against this backdrop, whereas the establishment of a renovated Sinocentric system is far from certain, this study sheds light on the challenges and opportunities the BRI is determining upon Southeast Asian countries and their relationship with Beijing. This article reflects the joint outcome of the efforts of both authors. In practice, though, AA wrote the sections "Introduction" and "Southeast Asia and the BRI: A Chinese Perspective," whereas AF wrote the sections "The Unraveling of the BRI in Southeast Asia" and "A Long Way Ahead for the BRI." We are aware it may sound quite odd, but it is required by the Italian Agency for the Evaluation of the Academic System and Research (ANVUR) for co-authored articles to be eligible for evaluation. For this reason, it is important that the footnote be included.

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  26. Dr. Alessandro Albana is Associate Research Fellow at the Asia Institute in Bologna holds a Ph.D. in "Global and International Studies" from the University of Bologna. He was exchange Ph.D. student at China University of Political Science and Law (Beijing, 2016-2017) and Visiting Research Fellow at China Foreign Affairs University (Beijing, March 2019). He published in the fields of Asian Studies, Political Science and International Relations. His research inter- ests include China's domestic politics, social development and foreign policy, IR and political systems of East Asia. He collaborates with the Fudan Development Institute at Fudan University, in Shanghai.
  27. Antonio Fiori is Associate Professor of History and Institutions of Asia at the University of Bologna and President of the Asia Institute. He has been a visiting scholar at the United Interna- tional College (Zhuhai, PRC), East-West Center (Honolulu, USA), Kyujanggak Center for Korean Studies (Seoul National University, Korea), Korea University and Ewha Womans University (Seoul). He has published widely in the fields of Inter-Korean relations, North Korea's domestic and international affairs and China's foreign policy. His latest co-edited book, titled The Korean Paradox: Domestic Political Divide and Foreign Policy in South Korea, has been published by Routledge in June 2019.